2006 Fantasy Football Rookie Analysis

RB Reggie Bush (#2 / New Orleans Saints) — Bush is an electric playmaker who barring injury and incompetent offensive game planning will be…

2006 Fantasy Football Rookie Analysis

RB Reggie Bush (#2 / New Orleans Saints) — Bush is an electric playmaker who barring injury and incompetent offensive game planning will be a difference maker in the NFL for years to come. It’s surprising that the NO Saints took Bush since they already have Deuce McAllister and the newly signed Michael Bennett on the roster but was hands down the best player on the board. Expect the Saints to start McAllister, use Bush as a change of pace runner, and leverage him as a slot receiver & return man.
Summary: Bush will touch the ball at least 10 times a game to start the season and get more touches as the season progresses. Expect around 6 TD’s (including one on special teams) and 1000 total yards for Bush.
BottomLine: Starter, he’s a #3 fantasy back at best in 2006 but has the potential to be a #1 in ‘07

QB Vince Young (#3 / Tennessee Titans) — The Texas star showed his ability at the Rose Bowl the past two seasons, and now he brings his freakish talent to the Titans. Young has possibly the highest ceiling of any QB to enter the NFL in years, arguably ever but Young will need time to learn the speed & complexity of the pro game. So expect the Titans to go with a veteran like Kerry Collins or Billy Volek in ’06 and groom Young for ’07.
Summary: If you’re in a keeper league, take Young & stash him away. If it’s a seasonal league wait to see if the Titans fall out of contention early because Young could play a few games at the end of the year and contribute for fantasy leaguers with his legs.
BottomLine: Backup QB, Young won’t see the field in ’06 ala Steve McNair’s apprenticeship in Tennessee.

TE Vernon Davis (#6 / San Francisco 49’ers) — The 49’ers are looking for playmakers for Alex Smith and feel they got a prize with Davis. Davis has freakish ability, posting a 4.38 time in the 40 and nearly a 40 inch vertical at the combine. Davis led the ACC in receiving and has the potential to be the 49’ers featured man. However unlike the recent trend with top TE’s (such as A. Gates, T. Gonzales, T. Heap, M. Lewis, J. Shockey, L. Pope) Davis doesn’t have the height & size (6’3” 256 lbs.) of the top TE’s. Additionally the 49’ers will need to get Davis the ball in the open field to take advantage of his speed.
Summary: Fantasy leaguers should temper their expectations some, Davis has an inexperienced quarterback and is joining the NFL’s most anemic offense. 500 yards & 5 TD’s are probably the best case scenario.
BottomLine: Starting TE, a top 15 fantasy TE but disappointing in ’06 relative to veteran TE’s like Tony G., J. Shockey, A. Gates and rookies like Pope & M. Lewis

QB Matt Leinart (#10 / Arizona Cardinals) — The Cardinals have now secured their QB of the future in Leinart. Leinart doesn’t have John Elway arm strength or mobility but he’s a leader, has good touch, decision making ability and is a winner. He could start today but will have the luxury of learning behind Kurt Warner for a season before likely taking the reigns in ’07. This is a good spot for Leinart, he stays close to home and joins a team with Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin.
Summary: In a keeper league, scoop him up and plan on having a starter in a great offense in 2007. If it’s a seasonal league, watch Arizona’s early season record because if they drop out of the race Leinart could put up some numbers in fantasy playoffs.
BottomLine: Backup QB, Leinart won’t play much if any in ’06 but WILL BE the starter in ‘07.

QB Jay Cutler (#11 / Denver Broncos) — This pick says two things: 1) Mike Shannahan saw something special in Cutler to trade up to the number eleven spot, & 2) Jake Plummer is entering a make it or break it season. Cutler has a gunslinger mentality with a strong arm, good mobility and moxie. He played in a tough conference, the SEC, for a bad team, Vanderbilt, and developed some bad habits. However it’s the adversity and success he demonstrated in a tough situation that had teams salivating over the potential for Cutler. He’s even been compared to Brett Favre but that’s unfair and hyperbole at this point.
Summary: Fantasy leaguers should not expect anything from him this year but Cutler is in a nice place to succeed in 2007 or 2008.
BottomLine: Backup QB like Vince Young, Cutler won’t see the field in ’06 and will be groomed for ’07 or possibly ‘08.

RB Laurence Maroney (#21 / New England Patriots) — New England is preparing for life without Corey Dillon and added depth to its running game. Maroney has good one cut running ability, he demonstrates good vision and consistently produced for a middle tier big ten team against solid run defenses. Maroney won’t start in 2006 but he’ll be a change of pace type.
Summary: But Dillon is injury prone and will turn 32 during the season, so Maroney could be the man sooner rather than later. Expect 500 yards & 4 TD’s in 2006.
BottomLine: Backup RB, Fantasy reserve in ‘06.

WR Santonio Holmes (#25 / Pittsburgh Steelers) — Holmes is a dynamic athlete who will immediately upgrade the Steelers special teams and provide a Randal El contribution. Though a bit undersized, Holmes has take it to the house speed & moves and can develop into a stud over the next couple of years.
Summary: Don’t expect Holmes to make major contribution in 2006 as the Steelers system limits the passing opportunities but he’ll be a difference maker in the special teams and as the #2 WR (behind Hines Ward).
BottomLine: #2 receiver in Pittsburgh, a #3 or #4 fantasy receiver in ‘06.

RB DeAngelo Williams (#27 / Carolina Panthers) — The Panthers jumped at the chance to pick up a potential game breaking back who could tote the rock. Williams had a fantastic college career, rushing for more than 1500 yards in each of the past three years, and many scouts feel Williams is a top 10 talent in a draft where more teams needed a starting RB. He’s short (5’8”) but stout (208 lbs) and has tremendous speed (4.4 40) and quickness.
Summary: Expect Williams to enter training camp behind DeShaun Foster but at the very least share time, and with Foster’s injury history, its conceivable Williams could be starting by some point in 2006.
BottomLine: Change of Pace RB, #3 Fantasy back with potential to be a #2 or even #1 if DeShaun Foster can’t hold up.

TE Mercedes Lewis (#28 / Jacksonville Jaguars) — The Jaguars needed a receiving tight end to add to their offensive sets and picked the Mackey award winner (best college TE) from UCLA. Lewis is a slender (255 lbs.), tall (6’7”) target who lacks good speed (4.8 40) but is sure handed. Byron Leftwich now has two huge targets (Matt Jones) to throw to, and Lewis in particular will provide Leftwich a safety net.

Summary: Lewis’ ceiling is much lower than Vernon Davis and he’ll never be an Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales but he could develop into a modern day Frank Wychek. Expect numbers in the 400 to 500 yards with around 3 td’s.
BottomLine: Starting TE, Lewis is a likely top 15 fantasy TE this year and could outperform Vernon Davis due to the better offense.

RB Joesph Addai (#30 / Indianapolis Colts) — Addai is a talent, he has good size (5’11”, 210 lbs.), good hands and is a solid blocker. The only knocks on him are his lack of consistency, fumbling problems & injury concerns. He’s never been a full-time starter at LSU, so there are real concerns about his ability to be a featured guy. But he comes to the team in most need of a RB and joins the best offense in the NFL that will give him open lanes to run.
Summary: For fantasy leaguers Addai is the guy you want, if he can overcome injuries, you can expect 1000 total yards and 6 to 8 td’s. He’s the early favorite to win the offensive rookie of the year award. For one year, Addai maybe the best rookie but Bush has a higher ceiling.
BottomLine: Starting RB, likely a#2 fantasy back in Indianapolis offense.

WR Chad Jackson (#36 / New England Patriots) — The Patriots added arguably the most complete running back & wide receiver in this draft, sans Reggie Bush. Jackson was productive (Florida team record of 88 catches last year) with great size (6’1” & 210 lbs.) and speed (4.45 40). The knocks are that he looses concentration and doesn’t play to his potential. However the scouts generally agree that the right coaching & time to learn could result in Jackson developing into a perennial pro bowler.
Summary: Receivers rarely contribute big numbers in their first year, so unless you’re in a keeper league stay clear in 2006.
BottomLine: A #3 or slot receiver in NE, no better than a fantasy reserve in ‘06.

WR Sinorice Moss (#44 / New York Giants) — The little brother of Santana, Sinorice has similar speed, incredible vertical leaping (supposedly 44 inches) and good playmaking ability. However he’s an inch shorter (5’8”) and doesn’t have the same explosive speed. The New York Giants will use Moss in the return game and to stretch the field, with Plaxico as the possession type featured receiver. With the depth in the Giants offensive threats (Burress, J. Shockey & T. Barber) expectations for Sinorice will be low which will allow him to develop appropriately.
Summary: For fantasy leaguers though that means little production from the rookie, so unless you’re in a deep keeper league there is need to waste your time with Moss in 2006.
BottomLine: A possible #2/starting receiver in NY, probably no better than a fantasy reserve or #4 fantasy receiver in ‘06.

RB LenDale White (#45 / Tennessee Titans) — USC players seemed to drop across the board in this draft and White was not immune. Originally expected to be taken in the top ten or fifteen selections, White dropped due to a hamstring injury that prevented him from completing a full workout for scouts. Thus the inevitable questions about his work ethic, passion and talent hurt his stock. But what scouts are missing out on is White’s talent & production. LenDale White scored 56 td’s and rushed for more than 3000 yards in three years at USC while sharing time with Reggie Bush. He’s a big back (6 feet, 238 lbs.) with good lean, strength and hands. At the conclusion of the national championship game when White carried the Trojans offensively at times w/ 120 yards and 3 td’s, scouts uniformly felt White was a top ten talent who was the most complete back in the draft. The fact that the Titans Offensive Coordinator, Norm Chow, coached White for 2 years at USC gives me the sense that the Titans are comfortable with White as a player and Chow will be able to design game plans to accentuate his abilities.

Summary: The Titans have a crowded backfield with Chris Brown & Travis Henry so expect White to be phased in over 2006 as the primary backup to Brown but I believe LenDale will be the man by ’07.
BottomLine: A backup goalline back to Chris Brown, #3 fantasy back in ’06 with potential for more as the season progresses.

TE Joe Klopfenstein (#47 / St. Louis) — The Colorado Buffalo product has good speed, solid hands and can stretch the field. He’s versatile but its unclear how Scott Linehan will utilize him offensively.
Summary: The sense is he won’t be as productive as Leonard Pope, M. Lewis, V. Davis, Fasano and others.
BottomLine: Possible Starter, No better than top 20 TE, probably just a fantasy reserve for most.

QB Kellen Clemens (#49 / New York Jets) — Clemens flew under the radar at Oregon due to subpar team performances and a history of nagging injuries that knocked him out of a few games each year. When healthy Clemens has good mobility, a solid and very accurate arm (Clemens owns the Oregon completion percentage record at 69.2%) that project well to the NFL. He has the luxury of learning from Patrick Ramsey & Chad Pennington but a nice opportunity to start in the near future if Pennington can’t put his shoulder problems behind him.
Summary: He’s a deep keeper but somebody who in time could develop into one of the best QB’s from this draft.
BottomLine: Scout team QB, Clemens won’t see the field in ‘06

WR Greg Jennings (#52 / Green Bay Packers) — The Packers picked up a versatile and productive receiver in Jennings. He has adequate speed, good size and was incredibly productive at the mid major Western Michigan.
Summary: He will contribute on special teams but will take a year or two to develop to the speed and complexity of the pro game.
BottomLine: Likely the Packers #3 WR, Jennings is no better than a fantasy reserve in ‘06.

TE Anthony Fasano (#53 / Dallas Cowboys) — A good blocking and receiving tight end from Notre Dame, the Cowboys now have a strong backup to Jason Whitten. Fasano doesn’t excel in one particular area but will be a nice addition to the Cowboys.
Summary: His numbers will be limited in the next couple of years as Whitten is the featured tight end.
BottomLine: Backup TE, a fantasy reserve in ’06 at best.

RB Maurice Drew (#60 / Jacksonville Jaguars) — Drew is a good value for Jacksonville, he will immediately contribute as a third down back and return specialist but he has the ability to be a featured ball carrier as well. Utilizing a low center of gravity, tremendous quickness and home run speed (4.4 40), Drew can develop over the next year or two into a full-time starter. Scouts are concerned about his size but he’s a stout (204 lbs.) five feet seven.

Summary: If you’re looking for a sleeper in the rookie class, Drew has to be up there. Fred Taylor is injury prone and getting up in age and the consistency of the other backs is a concern. Drew will be a quality NFL back.
BottomLine: A 3rd down back & return specialist deserves a roster spot but likely is only a fantasy reserve in ‘06.

TE Tony Scheffler (#61 / Denver Broncos) — This is an outstanding athlete who is also playing in the NY Yankees organization. Sheffler doesn’t have good TE size but he’s sure handed with blazing speed (4.5 40) for the position.
Summary: Mike Shannahan feels Scheffler can develop into a great pass catching tight end, and given the Broncos track record you have to believe him. It will take a couple of years for the maturation process to take place.
BottomLine: A project/backup TE, Scheffler is a fantasy reserve at best in ‘06.

QB Tavaris Jackson (#64 / Minnesota Vikings) — Jackson transferred from Arkansas to Alabama State where he excelled. Jackson is a mistake free field general with good size, solid arm strength and mobility. Though he’s an unknown, he’s entering a great situation in Minnesota where he can learn for a year or two behind Brad Johnson in a QB friendly system.
Summary: Expect Jackson to sit in 2006 unless disaster strikes the Vikings quarterbacks but its conceivable he could be starting in 2007 or more likely in 2008.
BottomLine: A Scout Team QB for the Vikings, he’s being groomed for ’07 or more likely ‘08

TE Leonard Pope (#72 / Arizona Cardinals) — The Cardinals got a steal in Pope in the third round. He doesn’t have the quickness, speed or open field moves you like in receivers or backs but he’s a monster (6’7”) with good blocking ability & hands. He’ll be a great addition as the safety valve in a quickly evolving offense for Kurt Warner & eventually Matt Leinart to check down.
Summary: Look for Pope to start in Arizona but put up modest numbers in 2006.
BottomLine: Starter, possible top 15 fantasy TE in Cardinals offense.

RB Brian Calhoun (#74 / Detroit Lions) — The Lions picked up a great back in Calhoun in the third round. A former Colorado back who transferred to Wisconsin excelled in the Big Ten scoring 22 td’s and rushing for overall 1600 yards in 2005. Additionally he caught over 100 balls the past two years and was called by former Badger coach Barry Alvarez “The best running back I have ever coached”. Calhoun’s stock fell when he only ran a 4.6 at the combine which coupled with his lack of size (5’8”, 203 lbs.) led scouts to think he’s only a situational back in the NFL. But in the right system he has the skill set to carry the load on the pro level and won’t be asked to excel from the start playing behind Kevin Jones & Shawn Bryson.
Summary: Don’t expect a lot of production in 2006 but he has the potential to be the man in 2007 if Kevin Jones regresses.
BottomLine: 3rd Down & Change of Pace back, Calhoun is at best a fantasy reserve in ‘06.

WR Travis Wilson (#78 / Cleveland Browns) — An Oklahoma receiver who missed time due to injury but has tremendous measurables (6’2”/214 lbs./4.5 40). He’ll be a developmental selection for the Browns who has the potential to be a number one receiver.
Summary: The Browns hope Wilson can contribute as #3 or #4 receiver in 2006.
BottomLine: A #4 receiver, fantasy reserve in the deepest leagues.

RB Jerious Norwood (#79 / Atlanta Falcons) — This is a good pick for Atlanta to provide depth and ability to the running back position. Norwood has home run speed (4.4 40), shiftiness and featured back size (6’ 208 lbs.). He runs a little upright and lacks the polish of some of the earlier running back’s selected.
Summary: He has plenty of talent and over the next year or two could become a featured carrier.
BottomLine: #3 RB behind W. Dunn & TJ Duckett, Norwood is a fantasy reserve unless Atlanta deals Duckett as rumored.

QB Charlie Whitehurst (#81 / San Diego Chargers) — Whitehurst is the son of former NFL QB David Whitehurst. The Clemson graduate, Whitehurst, has been up and down during his collegiate career. He has prototype size, good arm strength and at times looks like a first round talent. However he’s never been able to maintain the consistency necessary to be successful week in and out.
Summary: In San Diego Whitehurst will be able to develop on his own time behind Phillip Rivers & AJ Feeley. He needs to spend time learning the complexity of the game the next year or two.
BottomLine: Scout team QB, won’t see the field in ‘06.

WR Derek Hagan (#82 / Miami Dolphins) — Hagan has good size/speed ratio and was highly productive at Arizona State. Originally expected to be a late 1st round or early 2nd round selection, Hagan fell after he dropped a bunch of passes during the Senior Bowl practices and scouts scrutinized the films over the past few years. Hagan though still has the measurables to be a productive starting receiver in the NFL, so look for him to battle Marty Booker and fill the #3 WR spot in Miami this season.
Summary: Hagan will likely fill the #3 WR spot and contribute modest numbers at best.
BottomLine: Slot Receiver (#3), a fantasy reserve with some upside in ‘06.

WR Brandon Williams (#84 / San Francisco 49’ers) — The 49’ers selected Williams for his versatility and production. The Wisconsin graduate started four straight years at wide receiver and has good return skills.
Summary: He’s a bit undersized but the 49’ers will utilize him on special teams and in the slot.
BottomLine: #4 WR & return specialist, a fantasy reserve at best.

QB Brodie Croyle (#85 / Kansas City Chiefs) — With Trent Green turning 37 in the next year, the Chiefs needed to start thinking about their future at quarterback. Croyle has a strong arm but he lacks height, mobility and has a litany of injuries. Croyle will be groomed to eventually start but I have my doubts whether he’ll ever be able to start in the NFL.
Summary: Croyle needs to spend the next two years getting stronger and learning the NFL system, at best Croyle won’t be able to contribute in the NFL until 2007.
BottomLine: Scout team QB, Croyle is a longshot to see the field in ‘06.

TE David Thomas (#86 / New England Patriots) — Thomas is an athletic tight end who started all four years at Texas. With adequate size, good hands and speed, Thomas joins a crowded tight end depth chart in New England behind Ben Watson & Daniel Graham.
Summary: It’s unclear how much time Thomas will get but he’s a player who will see the field more as he develops.
BottomLine: #3 TE, a deep fantasy reserve in only the biggest fantasy leagues.

WR Maurice Stovall (#90 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — A strong, proto type sized WR (6’4”, 216 lbs.) who prospered during his senior season under Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. Reminds some folks of Joe Jurevicious, Stovall has the opportunity to develop into a starting receiver. In 2006 Jon Gruden will ask him to be the #3 receiver to present mismatches in the secondary.
Summary: Fantasy leaguers should only expect modest numbers in 2006.
BottomLine: Slot (#3) receiver, worth a roster spot in most leagues due to the potential upside in Jon Gruden’s offense.

TE Dominque Byrd (#93 / St. Louis Rams) — Byrd was the second TE drafted by the Rams but following a trade of existing starter Brandon Malmamueua, it makes more sense. The USC alum is a monster who displays good hands, is a good blocker and provides the Rams matchup problems. However Byrd lacks speed and doesn’t have open field moves.
Summary: He’ll likely be an in-line blocker start his career, so don’t expect much offensive production in 2006.
BottomLine: Backup TE, not worth a fantasy roster spot.

WR Willie Reid (#95 / Pittsburgh Steelers) — The FSU grad is a return specialist speedster who along with Santonio Holmes brings some playmaking ability to the steel city. Reid was a sleeper for many people who felt his skills were never properly utilized in Seminole country. He has a good size/speed ratio and could develop over the next couple of seasons into a big contributor.
Summary: He’s no better than a return specialist in ’06.
BottomLine: #4 WR & return specialist, only worth a fantasy roster spot in the deepest leagues.

RB Leon Washington (#117 / New York Jets) — The Jets are in need of a starting running back as Curtis Martin turns 33 and Derrick Blaylock showed he’s only a backup in 2005. With all their needs, they went with value in Leon Washington in the 4th round. The FSU back doesn’t have prototype size but his size is adequate (5’9”, 202 lbs.), he has good speed (4.5 40), quickness and catches the ball well. Curtis Martin will enter training camp as the starter but if Washington learns the system and outperforms Martin & Blaylock, he’ll be the man carrying the ball. Remember Curtis Martin was a late 3rd round pick, so its ironic that the man who may succeed him was an unheralded 4th round pick.
Summary: If you’re looking for a fantasy sleeper, look no further than Washington who has played on the biggest stage (FSU) and has been productive.
BottomLine: Backup RB, has the potential to eventually start over Curtis Martin as they transition from the future Hall of Famer.

RB P.J. Daniels (#134 / Baltimore Ravens) — Daniels led the ACC in rushing in 2004, then missed parts of 2005 with various injuries. He’s a quick, decisive runner who at 200 pounds could surprise people.
Summary: He won’t see the field much in 2006 but has the potential in the future to develop into a consistent contributor.
BottomLine: #3 RB, not worth a roster spot.

Originally published at www.paffl.com.

2006 Fantasy Football Rookie Analysis

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