2009 Fantasy Football Top Rookies

Given that the draft is over and many of the PAFFL rookie picks have changed hands, I thought it was a good opportunity to do another mock…

2009 Fantasy Football Top Rookies

Given that the draft is over and many of the PAFFL rookie picks have changed hands, I thought it was a good opportunity to do another mock (or projected) rookie selection order. While personal preference will dictate selections here is my best take on how the draft will end up.

BINGO — QB Matthew Stafford — Detroit (#1 overall) heldover @ $55 — Stafford almost certainly won’t start the season behind center as the Lions allow Daunte Culpepper to connect with their superstar WR Calvin Johnson. But with the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history, Stafford will be starting by no later than ’10 and has the potential to be a fantasy stud throwing to CJ for years to come. BINGO wants to get a franchise QB for the next 3+ years, so he’ll take the long-term play here rather than the near term production of somebody like Moreno.
PA Short Bus — RB Knowshon Moreno — Denver (#12 overall) heldover @ $55 — Moreno is going to a team with offensive talent and a clear need for a featured runner. He’s not as obvious a top fantasy rookie as other years because the NE system that Josh McDaniels is implementing will likely rotate guys, but Moreno has the talent to be a perennial 1,500 total yard guy who clocks in 8 to 12 TD’s a year. Moreno will be the unquestioned #1 fantasy rookie in redraft leagues and he’ll be a great addition for the Short Bus who want to replenish what they thought they had in Joseph Addai to make another Jankster Cup run.
Firkin Crawlers — RB Chris “Beanie” Wells — Arizona (#31 overall) heldover @ $55 — Some scouts like Wells more than Moreno but the stats and versatility say otherwise. Too many Big Ten backs are busts in the pros and Wells has lacked durability but he is talented and goes to a team in desperate need of a featured back to pair with a great passing attack. He has a potential to be a perennial 1000 yard guy w/ 10+ TD’s, and is a good fit for the Crawlers who already have two starting QB’s (Jason Campbell & Eli Manning) under contract and need to add another starting RB to the mix.
IMT — QB Mark Sanchez — NY Jets (#5 overall) heldover @ $55 — Sanchez is the accurate, mobile, fiery competitor type of drop back quarterback that NFL teams, especially ones that run the west coast style of offense, salivate over. He’s going to a great team with OC Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots, he likely won’t see much of the field in ’09 while the Jets let Kellen Clemens prove himself one last time but you can guarantee he’s being penciled in as the starter in ’09. IMT will love this pick, pairing him with ‘08’s top fantasy rookie QB (Matt Ryan) to build a two headed monster for the next 5+ years. I think this will be the best long-term rookie at the top of this class.
Naughty Thoughts — RB Donald Brown — Indy Colts (#27 overall) topped @ $45 — This maybe one of the bigger surprises of the 1st round, as Indy has a strong starter in Joseph Addai as their starter but clearly they felt he was the best player on the board. Brown played his college ball at UCONN so he’s not as well known but he’s a player, he put up big numbers (and put UCONN on the college football map) over the past two years and backed that up with strong combine numbers. He will be a backup to start out but he’s talented (as a runner & receiver) so this will take fantasy value away from Addai and limit Brown’s near term value, but over the next four or five years, he could develop into a star in Indy’s dynamic offense. Naughty would love for Sanchez or Stafford to fall but he’ll jump on Brown who could be the most productive RB from this class as early as ’11 in Indy’s dynamic offense.
BINGO — RB LeSean McCoy — Philadelphia Eagles (#53) topped @ $35 — McCoy was projected to be a first round pick following the season but after disappointing combine numbers, his value dropped. However landing in Philly he found a great home, as Andy Reid loves receiving threats out of the backfield and he’ll learn from a similar type of talent in Brian Westbrook, who turned 30 last year. McCoy will immediately be a change of pace / backup, and in Philly’s offense could be a fantasy RB4 this year with the potential to be a RB2 in ’10 & beyond. BINGO would love Brown to fall here but McCoy is a nice consolation prize.
Jack Trippers — QB Josh Freeman — Tamba Bay Bucs (#19) topped @ $35 — Freeman played a bit under the radar at Kansas State but the new TB head coach, Raheem Morris, was a coach there and knows Freeman well, so this is a good pick. He needs time to develop so expect the Bucs to use Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich as the starter in ’09 and possibly ’10, but Freeman immediately becomes the QB of the future. This likely means last year’s 5th rounder, Josh Johnson, will be on the trade block this summer. Irie doesn’t need Freeman and may trade down a spot w/ En Fuego who likely will want Freeman enough to pay a little to move up.
En Fuego — WR Michael Crabtree — SF 49’ers (#10) topped @ $25 — Crabtree is a beast, arguably the best overall player in the draft, who lands with a team in desperate need of playmakers, especially at WR. This is a great pick for the 49’ers but its not a great landing spot for fantasy leaguers looking to take advantage of Crabtree’s talent. The 49’ers are going to be a run focused team and their quarterback spot is in flux, so even best case scenarios have Crabtree as no better than a fantasy reserve this year with and opportunity to be a WR3 in ’10. En Fuego needs a QB of the future type but this is too early to take any of the second tier guys and they’re stacked at RB with long-term deals in place w/ Ryan Grant, Rashard Mendenhall & Brandon Jacobs, so this is the most logical top. Expect En Fuego to either move up or down for somebody who wants Crabtree.
Isotopes — QB Pat White — Miami Dolphins (2nd round; #44 overall) heldover @ $25 — I love White, he’s a winner who led West Virginia to four bowl wins and one of their best four year stretches in school history. While he doesn’t have prototype size, he is a spectacular runner with an underrated arm & accuracy, and the Dolphins have already stated that White will remain at QB and compete with Chad Henne for the right to be the franchise man in the future. If White can grasp the offense this summer, he has a real chance of being the long-term solution at QB & starting in ’10. The Isotopes could go with Greene here but he has a greater need for a QB of the future and as an Oregon fan is a true believer in the spread that Miami is counting on White to revolutionize the NFL with.
Pomona Stoned Hens — RB Shonn Greene — NY Jets (3rd round, #65 overall) topped @ $35 — Greene was the Big Ten’s 1st team RB (ahead of Chris Wells) and had over 100 yards in every game this past year. The Jets traded a bunch of picks to select him and they claimed he was the #1 RB on their board; throw in that Thomas Jones is well past 30 (31) and Leon Washington is a change of pace type, its easy to see that Greene will be expected to play a prominent role as early as ’10. He will be part of the regular rotation this year but don’t expect more than fantasy reserve numbers (somewhere around 500 total yards & 5 TD’s). Pomona needs RB’s so this is a perfect fit, if Pat White falls here and Greene is gone, expect him to snap up White to lock up Miami’s QB of the future.
IMT — RB Glen Coffee — San Francisco 49’ers (3rd round; #74 overall) topped @ $20 — I didn’t see enough of Coffee at Alabama to have a strong opinion of him, but he looks somewhat undersized (less than 200 pounds) and he wasn’t featured or dominant behind a strong offensive line. That said, the scouts love his potential and he goes to a 49’ers team that plans to run a lot more, and the only thing standing between him and potential fantasy gold is 3+ major knee reconstructed surgery’d Frank Gore. Even if Gore stays healthy, Coffee could emerge with 650 total yards & 4 TD’s as the change of pace guy, and he clearly has the fresher legs down the road. If you’re a believer he could be more valuable than this but the opportunity warrants at least consideration here. IMT will have locked up its QB spot, and has clear need to add depth & potential at RB, so this is an easy decision given the remaining talent on the board. Plus it doesn’t hurt that Coffee is a 49’er :)
Fightin’ Irie — QB Nate Davis — San Francisco 49’ers (5th round; #171 overall) topped @ $15 — Davis will be criticized for his learning disability and the poor play down the stretch but he’s a talented, mobile, strong armed & accurate QB who was the primary reason for Ball State’s success the past couple of years. The 49’ers are far from set at QB and while Davis will need a season or two to mature, he has an opportunity to eventually seize the starting QB job if he demonstrates mental growth to pair with his physical ability. He’s far from certain to succeed but he’s just as talented as Shaun Hill or Alex Smith, and he has the benefit of learning for a year or two before any pressure will be on him to perform. Davis will cost somewhere around $10 and could ascend to the starting role as early as ’10 but more likely his best bet for success would be ’11. The Trippers will take Davis or one of the more NFL ready WR’s (like Brian Robiskie).
South Whore Jibbers — WR Darrius Heyward-Bey — Oakland Raiders (1st round; #7 overall) topped @ $15 — It feels like the Raiders reached to select Heyward-Bey so high but he has good size, great speed (sub 4.3) and walks into a situation in dire need of a featured receiver, so if he stays healthy he can expect to see a large number of targets right out of the gate. With a plethora of young skill position talent around him (Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, JaMarcus Russell & Zack Miller), he is in a position to be at least fantasy productive as soon as ’09 but definitely by ’10. EBF could use a QB of the future but at this point nothing is worth placing a selection on and Heyward-Bey’s talent & upside is too much for the Jibbers to pass on.
South Whore Jibbers — RB Gartrell Johnson — San Diego Chargers (4th round; #134 overall) topped @ $10 — Anybody who saw Johnson run for nearly 300 yards in Colorado State’s bowl game knows that he has incredible quickness and breakaway speed. Of course his combine 40 time (4.7) says otherwise but don’t believe it, he is talented. In San Diego he won’t see the field much in ’09 but remember that LT is going to be 31 and Darren Sproles is only a one year player after signing the franchise tender. So while Johnson isn’t guaranteed anything, he could also be at least the primary backup (if not the full-time starter) in San Diego as early as ’10. Like the Jibbers use of a rookie pick on Tashard Choice in ’08, GJohnson is a good value selection who could be highly valuable come ‘10.
PA Short Bus — WR Jeremy Maclin — Philadelphia Eagles (1st round, #19 overall) topped @ $15 — Maclin is a gamebreaking stud. He reminds me of a young, more explosive Marvin Harrison and he’s going to the absolute best team for his skill set. The Eagles will find plenty of ways to get Maclin the ball in space and let his sub 4.4 speed & incredible quickness take over. He won’t put up gaudy numbers in ’09 (he’ll likely be the #3 guy) but he easily could become their featured guy in ’10 and be their best regular receiver since Irving Fryar a decade ago. The Short Bus will try to trade this pick but if they end up staying here, the selection will be Maclin who has a tremendous amount of talent and is in a good place to quickly become a productive fantasy player.
IMT — WR Brian Robiskie — Cleveland Browns (2nd round; #36 overall) topped @ $10 — Robiskie is going to his hometown team (his dad was the interim head coach a decade ago), and is slated to be a starter immediately opposite contract year Braylon Edwards. Robiskie is a smooth route runner, sure handed, good sized receiver who will never be a highlight reel type like Edwards but he’ll keep the chains moving and be the reliable, working class type of receiver they’ve lacked since the new Browns franchise has been formed. Given the opportunity, he could easily be a fantasy WR3 in ’10, and IMT needs a rookie WR who can produce ASAP to complement their solid QB’s & high potential RB situation.

Other Top Rookies

WR Hakeem Hicks — New York Giants (1st round; #29 overall) — Hicks was a human highlight reel last year making circus catches and displaying tremendous open field running ability. While he may never be a burner, he showed mature route running, natural hands and the necessary size to play a Michael Irvin type role for Eli Manning & co. in NY. In addition, Hicks couldn’t ask for a better situation, the Giants are in desperate need of a featured receiver and while he won’t start in ’09, the guys in front of him are all number two & three types, so its only a matter of time before he’s the man. He’ll land somewhere between $8-$20 and could be a fantasy WR2 as early as ‘10.
WR Percy Harvin — Minnesota Vikings (1st round; #22 overall) — Harvin is a playmaker but he landed in Minnesota which lacks a consistent passing attack and he’s not a dominant enough athlete / physical specimen to make plays all on his own. He has nice long-term value but there are also some red flag for a potential bust, most notably his work ethic. He’ll end up going for $6-$15 and will likely be somewhat of a disappointment long-term.
WR Kenny Britt — Tennessee Titans (1st round; #30 overall) — Britt was a prolific receiver at Rutger and has a tremendous size to speed ratio. He actually, in my opinion, has a lower risk profile than Darrius Heyward-Bey because he’s been productive on the college level. At any rate, he’s going to a strong defensive & run focused team, so while he could be the featured guy as early as ’10, that may not even translate into fantasy WR3 numbers. He’ll land somewhere in the $6-$15 range and be more productive but with less upside than Harvin.
TE Brandon Pettigrew — Detroit Lions (1st round: #20 overall) — Pettigrew was a good selection for the LIons who needed to add an outlet receiver to take pressure off Calvin Johnson. While he won’t be productive as rookie (from a fantasy perspective), he is the chain moving type of over the middle tight end teams love and he could easily be a top 10 fantasy TE immediately with upside in ’10 & beyond. He’ll be somewhere between $5-$12
RB Andre Brown — NY Giants (4th round; #129) — Brown was one of the most talented backs (with a great size/speed ratio) in the draft but durability kept him from being a first day selection. In NY he gets to compete with Ahmad Bradshaw & Danny Ware for the right to backup Brandon Jacobs and run behind one of the NFL’s most dominanting run offenses. So while he has a long road to climb in terms of the number of talented backs in front of him, he clearly has the talent and would be an immediate fantasy producer if he wins that backup role. If good news comes out of NY mini-camps and/or early training camp, move him up this list a half dozen spots and increase his cost by 20%. Until then though he’s a $6-$12 rookie with long-term upside.
RB’s Adrian Foster & Jeremiah Johnson — Houston Texans (undrafted free agents) — Neither of these backs were drafted but both were productive at BCS schools and both have a legitimate shot at being the primary backup behind ’08 rookie sensation Steve Slaton. The only thing standing between them & potential fantasy reserve numbers (say 500 total yards & 4 TD’s) is veterans Chris Brown & Ryan Moats. In short, the opportunity is there but it’ll take one of them stepping up to the challenge.
RB James Davs — Cleveland Browns (6th round; #195 overall) — Davis has first round talent but he was banged up in ’08 and never got on track like his team (Clemson), and then his senior bowl / combine circuit didn’t go much better. So in short Davis hasn’t shown enough to warrant serious consideration but he did land with the one team that plans to be balanced on offense and features a starting RB at 30 (Jamal Lewis). If Lewis gets injured or Davis finds his groove in Cleveland, its possible that he could be a fantasy diamond in the rough by mid season.

Summary: This draft lacks the immediate impact QB & RB’s that recent years has seen but its deeper than people give it credit for, and in particular there will be several WR’s who float under the radar that become productive fantasy starters with a few developing into stars down the road, and a couple running backs from the 3rd-6th round who will surprise, the key will be identifying which ones so you can capitalize down the road.

UPDATE: Jack Trippers own the #7 pick & Fightin Irie the #12 selection. Changes have been made.

Originally published at www.paffl.com.

2009 Fantasy Football Top Rookies

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