2015 PAFFL Projections

My annual regular season PAFFL projections have evolved over the years from subjective guesses to slightly masked data driven efforts. The…

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2015 PAFFL Projections

My annual regular season PAFFL projections have evolved over the years from subjective guesses to slightly masked data driven efforts. The ’15 version is no different so without further ado.

AFC

North

Naughty Thoughts (9–4, Conference Top Record) — the best starting lineup with solid depth, they’re the favorite to be PAFFL’s first repeat champion since Isotopes a decade ago. Studs at every position, this is the hands down best overall team.

Shot Bus (7–6, Wildcard) — The bus is “reloading” after declining significantly at QB (Kaepernick won’t be a starting NFL QB by the end of ’15 & Eli Manning is a step down from Stafford) and not improving at RB or WR, but they are well managed and will be in the conversation again.

Blak Jesus (6–7) — Breezy is on the threshold of being a contender but suffers from being in arguably the toughest division and perennially assembling lots of unfulfilled promise. If famous Jameis can translate college success to the pros and a RB breaks right, this could be the year.

South Whore (6–7) — The surprise coming out of the auction. The Jibbers dealt all their best players to select Mariotta but emerged from the auction with a strong team, and could be the sleeper team in the entire PAFFL. For that to occur they’ll need Tyrod Taylor to not just sustain the starting job but thrive and some other potential to be realized. It’s not high probability in ’15 but I love the look of this roster in ’16.

South

Tha Shiznit (9–4, Division Champ) — Shiz is back. Always a strong personnel evaluator, this roster is vintage Shiz and primed to be a major contender. The Fitz for virtually nothing deal was a setback (think net +8 points in 2 bye week games alone is worth more than $15 in future salary) but fortunately this roster is deep in other positions.

PA Firefighers (8–5, Wildcard) — Firefighters are back too. It took them only a year but built prospect by prospect, this is a roster developed for the long haul with depth at QB & RB, and flexibility in the future to acquire top talent to make a run. Come ’16 they will be dangerous.

Isotopes (5–8) — Memories of their three-peat are fading, I wish I could blame this on the York’s but truthfully it’s fear and loathing in the dessert. That’s a solid enough excuse for me. The ‘topes maybe dope while on dope but they’ll struggle to compete in ’15.

Strongfighters (3–10) — I can’t imagine how bad Team Kitty would be if they hadn’t found the Strongs to take on nearly $80 of salary dump (Sankey & Stacy). The killer for the Strongs was also taking on the final year of EJ Manual’s $55 salary too, resulting in 25% of their gap used on about 3% of value.

NFC

West

Beavercats (9–4; Conference Top Record) — Benefitting from great value contracts of fantasy positional studs (Luck, Newton, CJ Anderson, Greg Olsen) allowed them to spend heavy on depth and production. There are holes but this team looks primed to return to the playoffs and contend for a Jankster cup title.

PA Dream Team (7–6, Wildcard) — Picking up QB Fitzpatrick was an underrated mastermind move, giving this team an incremental 6 PPG and taking them from a likely 5–8 to 7–6 and playoffs. The key will be staying injury free at QB & WR, and having at least one of their young RB’s (Yeldon, Gurley & Hyde) explode into a top 10 fantasy producer.

East Bay Funk (7–6), Wildcard) — Statistically they are below Delta Mad Dawgs but I like the overall quality of their starters and their in-season management is solid, so expect them to be competitive to the end.

Delta Mad Dawgs (7–6) — Playing in the toughest division (on paper), DMD will be in the race to the end but without the game breakers they won’t have the firepower to win & score enough to get past the all important tie breakers.

East

Breezeway Bullies (8–5; Division Champ) — The team formerly known as the Cooking Monkeys has evolved into a legitimate Jankster Cup champion thanks to solid roster construction from last year and a choice rookie selection that was turned into the highest value in a rookie pick trade in PAFFL history. Sporting two top 15 QB’s, two top 5 RB’s and a top 10 WR, they’re primed for a big year.

Los Frijoles Pintos (6–7) — The Pintos have suffered from terrible preseason injuries (Jordy Nelson & Kelvin Benjamin) on a roster lacking extensive depth to start with. This is an underrated squad though, if they pick up a surprise free agent performer or two and receive breakout performances from Andre Ellington and Jonathan Stewart, they will be in the mix for the playoffs. More realistically they’ll be a seller at the trade deadline.

Balls Deep (4–9) — They have good playmakers/studs at QB, WR and TE but there’s not a lot of depth and an injury to Brady and/or Dez Bryant would eliminate their team explosiveness. Anything is possible but this looks like a roster in transition this year.

Team Kitty (3–10) — I love Kitty’s league contribution, having them being in contention is good for the entire league so this pains me to say but this is not a good team. Kitty went for volume/quantity of players looking to make deals to upgrade starters at QB & RB, that strategy backfired though when Matt Cassel & RG3 failed to secure starting jobs when they entered camp as favorites. Throw in a seemingly endless (or at least back to back) quest to own arguably the worst starting RB job in the NFL (Tennessee) and it’s a recipe for disaster. Fortunately they have some pieces to build around and maybe this will be the year they invest in next year so this down thing doesn’t last another year.

Projections based on an independent projection source (Kubiak/Footballoutsiders from 8/31) which I then assigned an overall roster value AND projected weekly/annual production as proxies for team strength. The details are listed below.

Team PPG Roster $ Notes
Blak Jesus 144 $433 Deep roster but lacking established producers + studs
K 24 $2
QB 27 $87 2 Avg at best starting QB’s
RB 20 $50 Lots of rotational guys
TE 10 $51 Good roster of TE options
WR 63 $242 Great WR core, easily the deepest
South Whore 124 $458 Underrated roster; primed for ’17 run
K 7 $0
QB 31 $117 Potentially top unit if Taylor’s running ability translates
RB 39 $182
TE 4 $18
WR 42 $140
Short Bus 128 $517 Top GM will will roster to playoffs
K 7 $0
QB 47 $190 Avg starting QB’s
RB 40 $185 Very good stable of starters & backups
TE 5 $27
WR 28 $115 Lacking depth but strong top 4
Naughty 151 $634 Strongest lineup top 2 bottom
K 17 $2
QB 39 $194 Best QB duo
RB 39 $183 Strong RB trio with some upside on backups
TE 17 $88
WR 40 $167
Isotopes 113 $398 Overall not enough firepower to be a playoff team in AFC
K 15 $0
QB 34 $150 Top QB duo
RB 28 $116 Solid rotational guys but no guarantees
TE 6 $29
WR 30 $103 Need a prospect to step up
PA Firefighters 158 $616 Rebuilding starts to pay off in ‘15
K 16 $0
QB 45 $168 Avg group is propped up by having 3 options
RB 47 $213 One of the better groups with depth & upside
TE 15 $73
WR 36 $162 Need to add another productive player but overall good
Strongfighters 97 $383 1 QB, RB and 3 WR’s does not make a playoff squad
K 9 $1
QB 16 $65 EJ Manual going down hurt this position group for Strongs
RB 31 $103 They need a break here
TE 12 $55
WR 30 $160 Very strong top 3 but zero depth
Tha Shiznit 165 $722 Deepest squad is one of the Jankster favorites
K 9 $3
QB 34 $152 Above avg starting QB’s
RB 44 $222 Arguably best RB group; certainly the most upside in PAFFL
TE 16 $77
WR 62 $267 Best WR group in the PAFFL; provides immense depth
PA Dream Team 134 $560 Trade makes PADT playoff team
K 16 $1
QB 32 $133 Fitz trade was critical addition to filling major gap
RB 40 $217 Top 4 RB group with good upside
TE 9 $39
WR 37 $170 Good group, not great depth but solid
Beavercats 162 $714 Solid combo of stars and depth
K 9 $1
QB 39 $196 2nd best QB duo w/ backups covered
RB 44 $208 Above avg group with depth
TE 13 $71 Top duo with Olsen & Rudolph
WR 57 $237 Deep with upside to be the best
Delta Mad Dawgs 128 $425 Sneaky strong roster; possible playoff squad in the NFC
K 16 $2
QB 33 $140 Solid QB duo; Stafford could be primed for career year
RB 27 $79 Squeaky group, no guarantees but potential studs like Martin
TE 10 $49
WR 42 $154 No stars but plenty of depth to fill out the lineup
East Bay Funk 121 $465 Solid game manager will make in season moves to playoff berth
K 7 $0
QB 30 $116 Bradford is primed for breakout year; Flacco underrated
RB 27 $98 Need a player to emerge; Ingram could be primed for massive year
TE 10 $66 Gronk is superstar
WR 46 $185 Acooper looks like a star; Boldin, J. Brown among others are solid starters
Team Kitty 93 $314 Rebuilding for ’16 should be the focus
K 14 $0
QB 22 $51 One of the worst starting QB duo in history of PAFFL
RB 10 $32 No discernible starters or producers
TE 12 $54 Solid group but nothing huge
WR 34 $177 Great starting group but no depth
Breezeway Bullies 137 $561 Great roster assembly sets them up for big ‘15
K 18 $3
QB 35 $154 Top 5 QB duo w/ potential for top overall production
RB 43 $220 Lacy + Lbell ensure playoff group is explosive
TE 10 $40
WR 31 $145 Good group and depth
Balls Deep 93 $372 — Likely rebuilding but studs at every position mean anything is possible
K 8 $1
QB 16 $66 Need a vintage Tom Brady season
RB 27 $125 Can Lamar Miller become a top 5 performer?
TE 11 $58 Did NOLA make Jimmy Graham?
WR 30 $122 Dez Bryant is all you really need.
Los Frijoles Pintos 111 $415 — There’s some potential but need a lot to fall into place
K 8 $1
QB 31 $124 Mediocre QB’s but steady performers
RB 37 $171 Underrated group but little deptch
TE 16 $83
WR 19 $35 Worst WR group by wide margin