2015 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

The top 24 rookies from a fantasy production perspective.

2015 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

We hear endless predictions each year on the respective NFL rookie class’ fantasy football potential. There’s endless hyperbole, and this year will be no different, however this year’s positional breakdown can be tiered. The QB class is two deep (top 2 overall picks), after that it’s all developmental, long-term projects (such as Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion, Garrett Grayson & Brett Hundley). The RB group is one of the better in recent history with solid top, immediate starting caliber, talent (M. Gordon, TJ Yeldon & T Gurley) plus lots of strong committee (RB3/Flex) talent with upside to be a primary backs (Abdullah, T Coleman, J. Allen, D. Cobb, J. Ayaji, and the Johnson’s (ARI & CLEV) and another intriguing group who have near term upside due to situation or talent (J. Robinson, J. Langford, M. Jones & M. Davis). It’s as deep a group as I can remember. The WR group has a lot of talent as well, likely a step or two below last year’s group (statistically the best rookie class ever) but don’t sleep on both the top tier (A. Cooper, K. White, D. Parker, D. Green-Beckham, N. Agholor) or the long second group who all have potential to be top producers at the NFL level (D. Funchess, B. Perriman, J. Strong, D. Smith, P. Dorsett among others). The TE class is weak, there’s a single name, Maxx Williams, to note but even he’s not a sure thing in a crowded Ravens group.

Overall there will be some highly productive rookies from this class and many others who emerge in a year or two. Here is my prediction of the top 24 rookies in a dynasty league, including an auction value (assumes $500 cap and 16 teams w/ QB as a flex option).

Marcus Mariotta (TENN, QB) — $55* — Mariotta may not be the highest producing rookie this year, and he has strong competition w/ Winston to be the top quarterback. He enters an unsettled offense with no discernible playmakers. But advanced metrics say he’s one of the better prospects at the position over the past decade, and don’t discount the value legit mobility can contribute to the bottom line. What I see in Mariotta is a high character, hard working, historically productive, ideal sized, quiet leader with good arm strength, accuracy on majority of NFL throws and plus running ability. He certainly is no better than an average QB2 in ’15 as a passer but it barring an injury, he should put up 650+ rushing yards and 5ish td’s, adding flex production to his QB numbers, which push him into top 10 QB production as a rookie. Obviously in non-keeper leagues with only 1 QB, drop Mariotta (and Winston) down five slots behind the top 3 RB’s & 2 WR’s. For keeper/dynasty leaguers though, Mariotta has the best chance of being a top 5 perennial fantasy QB performer. Nobody is a guarantee but so many indicators are highly positive on Mariotta.
Jameis Winston (TB, QB) — $55 — The most talked about rookie and the former heisman trophy winner goes to an ideal playmaker situation. He will be the best rookie passer with top targets (Vincent Jackson & Mike Evans), great receiving backs (Doug Martin & Charles Sims) and the appearance of a stable coaching staff and organization. Lurking beneath the service though is a mediocre offensive line which is Winston’s achilles heel. He needs a pocket, pressure in his face forces him into bad decisions, and that’s precisely what will be his undoing. He likely will be a serviceable, solid starting NFL quarterback but he’ll be more Byron Leftwich than Daunte Culpepper, and ultimately he’ll be a disappointment from a fantasy perspective. In short he has a low bust factor but I don’t see much ceiling. QB2 as a rookie and QB2 as a ten year vet.
Melvin Gordon (SD, RB) — $55 — Gordon demonstrates NFL quickness, strong north to south running in an efficient but hard running style. He runs like a nimble gazelle in open space while also being able to push the hole when nothing is there leveraging his 217 pounds. Uber productive at Wisconsin, he’s on another level talent & results wise than all the other badger backs who came to the NFL in recent years. The one concern is his ability to pass block and contribute in the passing game, but watching the combine results shows an athletic hands catcher. Plus it’s an advantage in today’s game to be able to specialize and be just a “contributor” as a rookie. 250 touches is a conservative guess, baring injury, and RB2 numbers should follow. Long term though he has great potential to be a special three way player, and he gets to start his career with a top 15 QB and passing game in it’s prime.
Todd Gurley (STL, RB) — $55 — Gurley is hands down the top offensive skill position player in this draft. He is a complete back, strong, quick, fast, great receiver, and all around difference maker. If he had ended up on Dallas or Arizona, he’d be in a prime position to be a top 5 back out of the gate. But in St. Louis, he goes to a below offensive line and all around miserable offense. Throw in the quality talent around him (e.g. Tre Mason) and ACL recovery project him to be a mediocre fantasy producer as a rookie (RB3/Flex). However Gurley has an incredible upside, he will either be Adrian Peterson (a guy who put up great numbers on a one dimensional team) or Darren McFadden (tantalized with explosive plays but battling injuries and constant teases). So low bust potential and one of the more talented RB’s to enter the NFL over the past 15 years but there are legitimate concerns for the foreseeable future.
Tevin Coleman (ATL, RB) — $55 — This is the spot in the order where any number of the next three guys who go here. I’m going with Coleman because of situation. Nothing to take anything away from Coleman, a traditional sized back (5’11”; 206 lbs) with sprinter speed/explosiveness who was highly productive in the Big 10. He shows above average hands and pass blocking; most importantly he steps into a top 10 passing offense with only Devonta Freeman to compete for touches. If you model shared duties, Coleman will be a RB Flex but Atlanta wouldn’t have spent a 3rd round pick (Freeman was a 4th last year) if they weren’t hoping he’s the primary guy. If he gets 250 touches in that offense, he could put up 1100 yards & 8+ TD’s, which would be solid RB2 numbers, and that offense is just entering it’s prime.
T.J. Yeldon (JAX, RB) — $55 — One of the most touted freshman sec running backs in recent years was Yeldon. He has the full package: Size, Quickness/Speed, Hands and Production at Alabama. He’s a guy who looked like he would be a top 10 pick early in his career. He goes to an intriguing situation. There’s literally no competition for primary ballcarrier, and little overall talent on the roster. The intrigue rests with Blake Bortles and the young receiving core. If those guys step up, Yeldon could slot into a perfect situation and be a productive, dynamic role player for them. If Jacksonville can’t move the ball through the air and defenses load up the box, then Yeldon could end up in the same situation Toby Gerhart was in last season. There’s definitely a strong boom/bust sentiment with Yeldon but the situation (guaranteed touches) and upside will dictate he’s a top rookie pick.
Ameer Abdullah (DET, RB) — $55 — A forgotten stud of sorts, Abdullah was a dynamic ballmaker in one of the most storied running offenses in college history but with Nebraska down, it seems like his production was lost on most folks and his tape not well watched. But if you watch this guy, he’s got Barry Sanders like quickness in tight spots, and he’s explosive in space. He doesn’t have long speed and he can be overpowered as a blocker. He will fit right into the Reggie Bush role in Detroit, that’s good for RB3 numbers, however with only Joique Bell, getting up their in age, in front of him he has a legitimate shot at primary back role in this offense as soon as this year.
David Johnson (ARI, RB) — $30 — This is where the non-obvious selection cliff begins. Johnson though enters a great situation; Arizona has an above average and improving line, an offensive minded head coach who wants to diversify the offense to keep defenses on their heels. Johnson is a nice complement to existing starter Andre Ellington, he brings a bigger body to pound between the tackles and give Ellington space to make plays. If Johnson can demonstrate sound pass blocking skills and translate his plus running style to the next level, its likely he’ll get 50%+ of the touches and become a solid RB3 producer in ’15. Also of note, Bruce Arians (ARI HC) compared Johnson to Matt Forte, so even if that’s only 50% accurate you have a player who is going to produce fantasy relevant numbers.
Amari Cooper (OAK, WR) — $30 — This is a projection on Derek Carr. If you believe Carr is at least an average starting quarterback will jump on Cooper here, if you’re convinced Carr will be benched by week 12, then you go with Kevin White or Devante Parker ahead of Cooper. But regardless of situation, Cooper has the measurables, college production and intangibles that project him to be at the very least a quality WR2 in time. His quickness to create space and hands should translate immediately to being force fed targets and WR3 at worst production.
David Cobb (TENN, RB) — $25 — Cobb will go earlier than draft position or situation normally would dictate. However the incumbent options have less public confidence, leaving a common consensus that Cobb is as good as any to get the job. On that basis alone I predict he’ll go in the top 10. Talent wise I’m not so sure. He’s shifty, has good short area quickness and power but there’s no second gear and has the look of a career backup. Throw in the fact TENN rushing production will increase but also cannibalized by Mariotta on the squad means RB2 is ceiling, likely RB4 for majority of his career.
Jay Ajayi (MIA, RB) — $25 — A poor man’s Todd Gurley in this draft, Ajayi on tape is a top 4 RB in this draft, maybe higher. He’s shown tremendous hands, willingness to pass protect and great overall production at Boise State. He fell to the 5th round in the draft though due to serious knee concerns after a heavy college load. He has the potential though to share with incumbent Lamar Miller, offering a short yardage/passing down option to the Dolphins offense. My guess is he’s a RB Flex who goes weeks w/o making an impact and then strings together RB2+ production. High ceiling if injury concerns are overblown and Ajayi’s body holds up makes him an intriguing option early.
Duke Johnson (CLE, RB) — $20 — The man who broke all the “U”’s career rushing records is a sorta forgotten entity in this year’s draft. The school that produced some of the best RB’s the NFL has seen the past decade (Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis & Frank Gore among many other productive backs), Johnson was the most productive of the bunch and at a time when Miami’s talent around him wasn’t as strong. Johnson has some scat back in
Bryce Petty (NYJ, QB) — $15* — This is purely a calculated bet. The options ahead of Petty on the Jets are mediocre at best so he will get a shot, likely sooner rather than later. Petty demonstrates NFL size, anticipation, and decent enough arm strength to make it at the next level. The question marks rest with his ability to man an NFL offense, to take snaps under center, to read a defense and make the necessary quick decisions at the next level. If you’re in an annual league, disregard this, but for dynasty leaguers, Petty could be a late round option that pays dividends in ’16. The question is whether he can capitalize on that opportunity or not.
Josh Robinson (IND, RB) — $15 — Robinson is a high motor, work ethic type of runner. If his pass protection holds up in training camp, he could easily end up being the Alfred Morris type of this class. It’s a crowded backfield on paper with a 32 year old Frank Gore as starter, perennially injured Ahmad Bradshaw as backup/change of pace and ’14 free agent find Dan Herron ahead of him. But Gore & Bradshaw aren’t the long-term options and Herron isn’t special, so Robinson has an opportunity for touches in ’15 and a much bigger role come ’16 in an offense that will remain a top 10 outfit with Andrew Luck for the foreseeable future.
Jarvorius “Buck” Allen (BAL, RB) — $15 — A smooth runner with natural receiving skills, Allen is in a great situation in Baltimore. Justin Forsett will be the starter but his time is winding down, so the competition for backup touches in ’15 and starting gig in ’16 is with Lorenzo Talliaferro, a mediocre runner & receiver to Allen. Of course this is pure speculation that Allen can translate his skill set to the NFL and the Ravens don’t select a RB high next year with the vantage point we have this year, it appears Allen is well positioned for RB Flex type of production this year and more in the years to come. Watch training camp closely but Allen is one of the more interesting late RB selections.
Kevin White (CHI, WR) — $25 — the quintessential paper stud, White lit up the combine with some all-time great measurables at featured receiver size (6’2” & 220 pounds). He was off the charts productive last year at West Virginia as well, if he had more history (game film) the projection would be easier to see. But at this point that’s the only negative to White’s game, his upside is as high as anybody in this draft and he goes to a situation in Chicago that will feature him on a lot of targets to get him with the ball in space. In short he’s not at Cooper’s level of refinement however his ceiling is a bit higher. WR2 production as a rookie isn’t out of realm of possibility with WR1 talent in ’16 and beyond.
Dorial Green-Beckham (TENN, WR) — $15 — The nations number one overall recruit three years ago, Green-Beckham didn’t disappoint whenever he was on the field. He’s a beast at 6’5” 235 pounds who runs a sub 4.5 40, and he’s shown the athletic ability to win contested balls. The issue here isn’t talent or production, it’s off the field where he’s gotten into trouble with drugs and domestic disturbances. This maybe a case where the mental focus and energy isn’t right, and he never seizes his opportunity but if he does he’s a WR1. The upside is worth the investment late for both annual (larger 12+ team leagues) and dynasty leagues alike.
Nelson Agholor (PHI, WR) — $15 — If Agholor had landed in TENN or NYJ or BUF, he wouldn’t be listed in the top 20 rookies. It’s not from a lack of talent, Agholor has quickness out of his breaks, long speed for explosive plays and consistency that projects well to an above average starting receiver at the NFL level. But landing in Philadephia with a top 10 offense still in search of it’s primary receiving weapon gives him potential to be productive immediately (WR2) and even potential WR1 numbers in the future. I personally like Green-Beckham more and likely DeVante Parker too but this is the right place for Agholor, he just doesn’t have the upside of others.
DeVante Parker (MIA, WR) — $20 — Miami’s receiver depth chart is better than people realize (Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings & Jarvis Landry) which will reduce Parker’s immediate impact but it’s lacking an explosive playmaker, which is why Miami spent the high selection on Parker to pair with Ryan Tannehill. Parker brings prototypical size and athletic ability to the table, where he needs to improve is
Jaelen Strong (HOU, WR) — $20 — Houston’s offense is in transition from Gary Kubiak/Andre Johnson to a new era of Bill O’Brien. The quarterback position remains in flux and the WR depth chart is wide open with only former 1st rounder DeAndre Hopkins slated to start. Strong brings featured receiver size, ability and production to the Texans. He will be groomed in the old Andre Johnson role but it maybe a year before he gets an adequate number of targets. The upside is high though and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Strong develop into the top threat in Hou by the second half of this year.
Garrett Grayson (NO, QB) — $15 — Grayson & Brett Hundley (GB) are similar value/luxury picks for dynasty leaguers. Grayson gets the nod though b/c he can realistically succeed Brees in a great offense where Hundley has to hope to be lights out good the next 2 training camps AND then GB deals him to a mediocre team as a starting solution (ala Matt Flynn, Aaron Brooks). Grayson, selected in the 3rd round as the third QB off the board, he comes to the NFL with many of the characteristics teams want to see; leadership, accuracy, some mobility, pro system experience. His arm strength is adequate but it’s a big jump, so there’s no guarantee he will even beat out existing backup options McCown & Ryan Griffin.
Jeremy Langford (CHI, RB) — $10 — Langford was a very productive back in the Big 10 displaying good long speed and toughness. He doesn’t show the vision & short area burst to be special at the NFL level but his situation in Chicago can’t be overlooked. Forte is entering his 30 year old season and there is nothing established behind him. He’s a long-shot but there’s no reason why he can’t be the guy long-term.
Mike Davis (SF, RB) — $10 — The 49’ers are planning to run a 1960’s power running style offense, or at least that’s what they signaled when they fired their innovative head coach and turned the team over to a lifetime defensive line assistant and the offense to a mediocre quarterback coach. Couple that with personnel (offensive line, great run blocking tight ends) geared to running the ball, and there likely will be several productive running backs in SF. Carlos Hyde is going to be the starter and Reggie Bush the change of pace but Davis has just as much talent as Hyde (sans knee injury he would have been a day 2 selection), so any injury or lack of ability to seize the featured role by Hyde could open the door for Davis. He’s at best a long-term play but one that can’t be overlooked.
Matt Jones (WAS, RB) — $10 — The Redskins don’t have the luxury to spend a 3rd round pick on a running back if they didn’t have a specific usage in mind. Jones is a big, move the chains type with better than demonstrated receiving skills. With the depth chart after Alfred Morris wide open, Jones could settle in as the primary back up & 3rd down option. In that scenario he’s a potential flex option with upside if Morris gets hurt. Furthermore Morris isn’t Gruden’s type of runner, so it’s conceivable that Jones develops into the primary runner in ’15 or ’16 as Morris moves on to another team (via trade or free agency). The ladder two scenarios aren’t likely but Jones has some immediate value and upside.

*Traditional fantasy leagues, move the QB’s down approximately 15 spots on this list.

To see a total of 25 predictions, go here to read more.

I originally published “Fantasy Football Rookie 2015 Predictions” at https://medium.com/@FFCollective/fantasy-football-rookie-2015-predictions-3f7ea0ce7e4f?source=tw-671f5b900234-1434134435567

2015 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

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