2017 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

This years 2017 rookie pick predictions go thirty plus deep. It’s a reflection on the depth and quality of this year’s class, which on…

2017 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

This years 2017 rookie pick predictions go thirty plus deep. It’s a reflection on the depth and quality of this year’s class, which on paper has the potential to be all-time great at RB and TE, while the QB and WR positions feature plenty top level talent and depth, inline with recent years at worst. My expectation is more fantasy draft capital will be spent on rookies this year than recent seasons and ’17 will be remembered as fondly as ’08 for RB’s and stand head and shoulders as the best ever for Tight ends.

Overall my talent tiers can be broken down into four groups:

1st Tier — Immediate Contributors (1–3); 2nd Tier — Likely Immediate Contributors w/ high ceiling (4–6); Tier 3 — Nice starting upside, each require some development time (7–11); Tier 4 — All have talent need either injury, maturation, out perform competition and/or a combination of all three for path to fantasy success immediately but each have the talent to start in the NFL (12–31). Also note the salary amounts to a super flex league (hence QB values) and a $500 salary cap league.

Without further ado, here are the projections -

DeShaun Watson & Mike Williams

RB Christian McCaffrey ($55) — East Bay Funk — McCaffrey is the surest contributor, and the easiest to project of this year’s rookies due to his versatility and skill as a receiver and runner. His suddenness, hands and overall football acumen will translate to a very high floor. That said he likely won’t be the best rookie in this class but his bust potential is as low as any rookie since Andrew Luck.
RB DeShaun Watson ($55) — Blak Jesus — Watson has been an incredibly productive leader of one of the most underrated college football programs the past few years in Clemson. He’s shown poise, leadership and all the general attributes NFL teams like (size, above average arm, athletic ability), he’s simply suffering from over exposure. Landing in Houston though affords him above avg. NFL skill talent and a top defense, which will enable him to have a Ben Roethlisberger type of transition in ’17.
RB Leonard Fournette ($55) — Amholez — Fournette could easily go #1, or more than likely #2, as he may have the highest ceiling of any player in this class, and enters the most well defined rookie role in ’17. While Fournette is exceptional as a power runner, there remains questions to his ability to play in a modern NFL spread system, which could limit his fantasy relevance. Furthermore players like Fournette in recent history haven’t succeeded like they did a decade or more ago.
RB Dalvin Cook ($55) — PASB — Cook on tape looks like a star, a multidimensional game breaker (part Fournette, part McCaffrey). However he comes with baggage (off the field), tested poorly at the combine (not as good an athlete) and he enters a less than perfect landing spot (Minn). That all said Minnesota is switching to a new zone read blocking scheme, they drafted 2 offensive lineman that fit that scheme and drafted Cook who thrived in it. Furthermore L. Murray, signed as free agent, is only getting tier 2 money, so all indications are that the draft capital and change in system means Cook is your featured guy by second half of ’17.
QB Mitchell Trubisky ($55) — LFP — NFL teams rely on the investment for opportunity more than they should. Given that, Trubisky will has as many or likely more opportunities to develop and start than any recent top QB selection due to their investment to move up to #2 and the lack of other options on the table. Trubisky checks a ton of NFL attribute boxes (Size, Arm, Athletic Profile) but he needs time to develop. With the Bears investment, he will remain the slated starter in ’18 and ’19 irrespective of how badly he looks, which makes this selection a high floor (in terms of fantasy value) and high ceiling, just know that the ceiling has less of a path for success than the near term floor.
RB Joe Mixon ($55) — EBF — Scouts and tape tell you Mixon is the most complete back in this draft, a guy with Fournette power, Cook explosion and McCaffrey passing game prowess. Overall that seems to be a little hyperbole but Mixon is a stud, that sans off field issues, would have landed him in the top 15 of the draft. He also lands in a pretty good spot, with established leaders at key positions and a backfield that opens up in ’18.
RB Kareem Hunt ($40) — Engel Shiz — The fantasy pundits are out in force on Hunt, a player KC traded up for who profiles nicely as an Andy Reid type of bellcow. It’s hard to determine based on tape how Hunt translates to the NFL level, but he has 3 down ability, and profiles as a slight improvement on running & passing down situations to current start Spencer Ware. Throw in the draft capital (3rd round pick trade up), and the Chiefs are all in on Hunt at some level.
QB Patrick Mahomes ($35) — BINGO — We should call this the KC tier. Mahomes has arguably the best upside of this year’s rookie QB’s and lands in the best situation. He won’t play at all (barring injury or Chiefs collapse) but sitting for ’17 to learn the game, then ascending in ’18 means he will have had the opportunity to hone his craft and walks into a stable situation.
WR Corey Davis ($35) — Engle Shiz — The lesser known of the top rookies, Davis is an absolute beast, ending up in arguably the best situation for any rookie WR, a team desperate for a target hog WR and with an ascending franchise quarterback. So while I’m typically not a huge fan of using a rookie pick on a WR this year, Davis is special in terms of skill and team, and has high probability of being a $60 value in ’17.
RB Jamaal Williams ($30) — BeaverCats — This selection could flop with #7 or #19 very easily, but one of the NFL’s top 3 offenses, Green Bay, is devoid of RB talent and could easily feature the BYU rookie. The reason Hunt is higher for me though is the fact the Packers have an ascending player (Ty Montgomery) already on the roster AND drafted three running backs. But Williams in Green Bay has huge potential to solidify the starting role for years to come in a better office.
WR Mike Williams ($25) — BINGO — Similar to Corey Davis thoughts above, the bigger difference is Williams looks more one dimensional as premium possession / red zone type receiver AND he walks into more crowded receiving core (T. Williams, T. Benjamin, Gates, Henry & K. Allen). Long term Davis projects to be better real NFL receiver and higher target share for fantasy production.
RB Samaje Perine ($25) — Naughty — Perine has more talent than any other back on the roster, and profiles nicely as immediate upgrade over existing starter Rob Kelley. Issue is whether that projection carries over to the field and whether Redskins offense can continue to out perform in ’17.
RB Alvin Kamara ($25) — Engel Shiz — The Saints traded up to the top of the 3rd round to select Kamara. It’s a crowded situation however Kamara is an exceptional receiver, a role currently unfilled by Mark Ingram or Adrian Peterson. So there is a meaty role in the Saints offense available now, add in the fact Peterson and Ingram could be gone from the roster by ’18, and Kamara’s long-term opportunity is strong.
RB Joe Williams ($20) — Bullies — There is already a story running around that the 49’ers didn’t have Williams on their board, then new HC Shannahan “pounded the table” for Williams. Coupled with local team interest and Shannahan’s history, pushes the 4th rounder Williams into the top 16. 49’ers are arguably the worst offensive situation though in ’17 so his floor is very low.
RB D’Onta Foreman ($20) — Engel Shiz — In how many past drafts would a 2k yard rusher at a power 5 conference school who tests well and gets drafted in the 3rd round fall to pick 16? Never? Foreman is an immediate complement to Lamar Miller, the consummate slasher, who will fill a power run role and ball control offensive sets. Miller is still young but Foreman has the potential to be the more valuable Texan running back if Bill O’Brien eventually implements his “Patriots” South offensively flexibility. Leaving Foreman in a TD heavy role.
QB Chad Kelly ($20) — Balls Deep — The most surprising prediction is one that once you lay out the details on the table seems less as a surprise and an open question of whether he should be higher on this list. Kelly is as talented (Arm, Size, Experience) as any rookie QB, he led a perennial mediocre SEC school to prominence and has the genes to project to the next level. If you remove the off the field activities, this is a day one (1st) or day two (2nd/3rd) selection. So the downside is this is Mr. Irrelevant (last pick in round 7) w/ as little team investment. However the upside is that John Elway is a stable force who understands the QB position, Denver has a void at QB but top notch overall team talent, and if Kelly can get healthy, clean up his act, he could be the franchise QB for Denver by ’18 (if not sooner).

The next 16

TE OJ Howard ($15) — In a general draft year, Howard (and his draft capital) would likely result in a selection at the end of the rookie picks. Howard is a top 10 talent, he’s a good blocker, good receiver with receiver attributes. Open question is whether he fits directly into the offensive flow or Cameron Brate maintains a foothold in the offense.
WR John Ross ($20) — In a general draft, every top 10 NFL pick is selected with a rookie pick. In this one he falls due to depth of RB position and the lack of path to NFL #1 receiver status.
QB DeShone Kizer ($20) — The Browns offense (and defense for that matter) are still very much in rebuild mode, and Kizer has value since he’s the highest drafted QB on the roster. However he enters the season as #3 development guy behind two more experienced and still ascending QB’s (Brock Osweiler + Cody Kessler); and even if(when) he gets starts they maybe outside of top 30 in terms of production.
WR Curtis Samuel ($15) — The Panthers shocked the twitter nfl pundit world by selecting not one but two versatile playmakers that are polar opposites to their ’14 and ’15 top draft picks (Kelvin Benjamin & Devin Funches). Samuel is intriguing due to athletic profile and situation, however Cam Newton hasn’t proven to be a competent screen/short pass thrower, so its unclear his role, similar to his former Buckeye teammate Braxton Miller from ’16 draft.
TE Evan Ingram ($15) — This is a gigantic WR masked as a TE. Many pundits have him above Howard for fantasy purposes, and if Giants weren’t so crowded I’d have him in the top 16. A freakish athlete, if used properly, Ingram could easily be a top 10 fantasy TE this year and an every week starter in deeper leagues in the flex spot.
TE David Njoki ($15) — A cross between Howard & Ingram in terms of blending blocking & receiving abilities. Njoki in a stable passing situation would have him in the top 16 but due situation and positional depth, he’s falling here.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster ($15) — USC hasn’t produced a WR who out performed their draft position since maybe Curtis Conway, potentially earlier (note KeyShawn Johnson as #1 overall IMHO was at expectation). I struggle with this selection but the situation is juicy. Big Ben is threatening to retire but he’s still too young and competitive to walk away before ’18, my guess that barring an injury, he plays through ’19. At which point Smith-Schuster could be the featured guy or at least a high target #2.
RB James Conner ($15) — Before you watch the tape or look at the combine results, keep in mind this guy was as close to the Pittsburgh Steelers as any player drafted. His doctor was the Steelers team doctor, and he’s one of those blue collar guys who works for the Pittsburgh culture. Couple that with the production Bell’s backup has had when he missed games the past few years AND the fact Bell is a free agent next year. Odds are high Conner is an insurance policy that won’t be cashed in but if it is, he could be one of the top 5 rookies this year in terms of fantasy production come ’19.
QB Davis Webb ($12) — The NY Giants 3rd round pick is a polarizing prospect. The
QB Joshua Dobbs ($10) — The Steelers franchise is a model of consistency, mediocre performance over the past 4 decades has been .500 play; and the current roster is flush with offensive talent and an aging franchise quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is getting up there (35) and starting to discuss a desire to retire in the near future. With his style of play, there are likely starts for the backup here (Big Ben has missed 2 or more starts in 6 of the past 8 seasons), and if Dobbs shines, he will be a natural to be the heir apparent to Big Ben. I like his chances lower than the guys above him but he’s better than others listed below (or not listed).
QB Nathan Peterman ($10) — The new Buffalo Bills staff are hyping up Peterman, who has gone under the radar with a quality college resume. Peterman’s path to starts is clearer than most realize though as Tyrod Taylor is essentially on a 1 year deal and ownership not convinced after consecutive solid starting seasons.
QB CJ Beatherd ($10) — This guy is a JAG (just another guy) BUT then again I thought Kurt Cousins was a JAG, and the 49’ers long term fit at QB is wide open. If you’re betting on Shannahan the QB developer and willing to wait until ’18, then this is worth the lottery ticket.
WR Zay Jones ($10) — The highest drafted 2nd day receiver selection, Jones lands in the highest target upside role in Buffalo. The Bills may have an entirely new top 3 in ’18 (Watkins is a free agent; Goodwin & Woods left this year). The athletic profile and college production are strong indicators that Jones will be at least productive at the NFL level.
RB Marlon Mack ($15) — Mack isn’t dynamic, he’s a one cut type runner. If he landed with a team that had more talent, he wouldn’t make my top 50 list but with Indy, he’s immediately competing for touches in what should be a top 5 NFL offense. So the upside here is strong.
RB Jeremy McNichols ($15) — McNichols is a small school performer (Boise State) who looks like Jay Ayaji but comes in nearly 10 pounds less and missing the burst/strength of his former teammate. However like Mack, McNichols enters a situation where his competitive set are a group of undrafted or late rounders for the first quarter (3 games) of the fantasy season while Doug Martin is suspended. So he could be an immediate producer who develops into great trade bait.
WR Carlos Henderson ($10) — The Broncos 3rd round selection fits in as a versatile returner & slot receiver who can develop into an Emanuel Sanders replacement in ’19. Henderson looks like a beast, a Randal Cobb type, who you’re banking on the Broncos figuring out their QB situation to make a slot wr fantasy relevant (and a #1 & #2 WR relevant too).

2017 Top Fantasy Football Rookies

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