2018 NFL RB Rookie Rankings

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at the games most important position, quarterback, and brings a wealth of top-level…

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at the games most important position, quarterback, and brings a wealth of top-level…

2018 NFL RB Rookie Rankings

Georgia Bulldawgs are producing great NFL RB talent.

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at the games most important position, quarterback, and brings a wealth of top-level talent at running back. Wide receiver and tight end are where this year’s class is lacking both immediate production and long-term star power. When you dive into the details you can see a variance over last year by position. There will be some immediate league winning talent in this class and some staying power, but it’s concentrated in QB & RB more so than in recent years.

Running Back Rankings

Running back features three (3) first-round selections, four (4) second-round selections and a 3rd round selection. The 2017 draft provided the deepest pool of running back talent in more than a decade (compares favorably to 2008 NFL draft). The 2018 draft provided more draft capital (round 1 & 2 selections) than recent history, and with the NFL shift to devaluing the position, it makes the 1st and early 2nd round investments in some respects more meaningful. NFL teams are not investing a 1st round selection on a running back they don’t plan on starting (or at least utilizing a ton in their offense). Saquon Barkley (#2 overall pick) is an obvious top of the talent value, but so is Rashard Penny (#27), Sony Michel (#31), Nick Chubb (#35), Ronald Jones (#38) and Kerryon Johnson (#43) among others. The talent level though drops off after Royce Freeman at the top of the 3rd round. Unlike ’17 where the depth of the position pushed players down a round or two (eg Kareem Hunt & Alvin Kamara were 2nd round talents but were available in the 3rd round of the draft), this draft didn’t push talent up as much.

  1. Saquon Barkley(NYG) — the draft capital (#2 overall pick), film and athletic testing project Barkley to be an immediate fantasy starter with top 5 overall production potential in ’18. He’s as safe a rookie can be entering the league.
  2. Rashaad Penny (SEA) — An explosive runner, productive as a bellcow and one of the nations top kick returners, Penny walks into a featured role surrounded by a great QB and solid receivers. He offers less versatility and some holes (questions on pass pro and hands) vs. Michel but RB’s selected with 1st round picks that land in good organizations (stable coach / QB combos) are a higher floor, high ceiling probabilities than those facing more challenges to achieve success (ie 8+ man boxes).
  3. Derrius Guice (WAS) — Washington employs a running back friendly system under Jay Gruden. An understudy to Leonard Fournette in ’16, Guice has more versatility to excel on all three downs at the NFL level. Adept at powering for tough yards and making open field moves for big gainers, he walks into the 1st/2nd down role and could move Chris Thompson into a partial slot receiver role if he can handle an even bigger load. While off-field concerns/attitude could be a factor (it’s reported attitude caused him to drop out of 1st round), the talent is there and the landing spot affords him a perfect opportunity to be a fantasy starter immediately. His ceiling is lower than Penny & Michel (due to offense and situation) but his floor is higher than both.
  4. Sony Michel (NE) — a versatile weapon with pro pass protect skills, landing with the Pats was a perfect spot. Yes, the Pats have in recent history rotated guys based on situation & skillset (short yardage, 3rd down, slot), they’ve avg more than one top 20 fantasy RB producer every season and even produced 2 in some years. Dion Lewis in the 2nd half of ’17 was a recent example of this and Michel, who is a good receiver, is explosive and powerful in short yardage, has a look of productive in a top 5 offense rookie. Don’t forget NE has scored 22+ rushing TD’s and been a top total rushing yardage team in each of the past three years. Even dividing up the totals among 2 or 3 guys, means the floor for Michel (assuming health & ball security) is RB2.
  5. Nick Chubb — (CLE) — In a year or two we’ll realize this was a perfect landing spot but right now it’s suspect. Carlos Hyde has talent and was given enough $$ that he’ll be in the mix. Duke Johnson is the 3rd down back, removing massive target share volume from the pie. Add in the reality that the Browns have been a perennial bottom 5 offense the past 2 decades and there’s not a ton of confidence in Chubb. Yet on par with Barkley as a runner, Chubb should earn a majority of the early down work by midseason. That would make him a potential RB2 during the fantasy stretch run, and a very strong RB2+ potential as a dynasty pick for ’19 and beyond.
  6. Ronald Jones (TB) — A top high school recruit, Jones explosive playmaking ability was on full display across his three years at SC. In 2017 we saw Jones’ ability to carry the full load and he broke out in a major way. A strong 3 down skillset talent who lands with a Tampa team rotating average guys (Charles Sims & Peyton Barber). As a top of round two selection, he’s a high probability 200+ touch rookie which would make him a top 25 fantasy producer at RB.
  7. Royce Freeman (DEN) — A top high school recruit, Freeman shot onto the scene as a stud, breakout freshman. That promise and excitement have nearly dissipated by his senior year. Watching the tape, his productivity, and ability to churn out both the tough yards and explosive plays in an offense where the talent declined the past four years. Landing in Denver with only proven mediocrity on the roster (D Booker has failed to avg more than 3.9 YPC across 200 carries the past 2 years), Freeman has the potential to immediately claim 250 carries and a top 15 fantasy production at the RB position.
  8. Kerryon Johnson (DET) — With no established 1st/2nd down runners on the Detroit roster (Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah and LBlount), Johnson has a path to 200+ carries in ’18. A sturdy, rugged north-south runner, he has more burst, wiggle, and versatility than Blount and with a 2nd round, investment should be the preferred option heading into training camp. This is one of those picks were paying attention to reports from mini-camp and early training camp will be crucial. Positive reports around his pass pro, hands and assimilation are crucial; negative comments could foretell a slow or busted rookie year.
  9. Nyheim Hines (IND) — Hines explodes on tape with his 4.38 40 speed on full display. His receiving technique is sound, looking & catching the ball with his hands. He can set up defenders with quick moves to gain separation on routes. Yet he doesn’t have explosive long speed (he gets caught from behind in the open field too much). His running style is more physical and north/south than is typical for sub 200 pound passing down looking specialist. There is also a yellow flag around college productivity (poor YPC and YPT stats for an explosive player). Overall his floor is high with an Indianapolis offense desperate for playmakers. If Luck returns to full health, this offense will produce more touchdowns and available production all around.
  10. Chase Edmonds (ARI) — Edmonds is a fantasy sleeper (or deep sleeper in sub 10 team leagues) as the backup to David Johnson. He must beat out Elijah Penny and TJ Logan, however the primary backup in a new run-centric offensive system could be worth 5 to 10 touches a week, and if David Johnson misses any time, Edmonds would be inline for mid RB2 value.