Buffalo Reached in Quest to finally Replace Jim Kelly

The Buffalo Bills reached in selecting quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall selection in this year’s NFL draft. Allen has 1st…

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Buffalo Reached in Quest to finally Replace Jim Kelly

Allen has the arm & size but he’s not shown the basics to have consistent success.

The Buffalo Bills reached in selecting quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall selection in this year’s NFL draft. Allen has 1st round arm and improvisational ability, but he’s a late 2nd or 3rd round talent based on his overall production to date and athletic testing. The eye test shows a player who is raw, who has a long way to go before they could be even an average starting option in the NFL. The question is whether Allen will ever reach his potential surrounded by marginal talent and an unstable organizational structure over the past twenty years.

QB Josh Allen

• Size: 6’5” / 235
• Draft Selection: #7 (2018)
• Depth Chart: QB2 (competing w/ Nathan Peterman & AJ McCarron to start in ’18))
• ’18 Outlook: QB3+ (QB2- once he gets starting nod)
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/joshallenqb
• NFL Comparison: more mobile Jim Drunkenmiller

Outlook: As the 7th overall selection in the draft, Allen will sooner rather than later be handed to the starting role in Buffalo. He’s the biggest boom or bust selection in the April draft. Incredible arm strength, good pocket mobility and ideal NFL size. Conversely, he lacks accuracy, allows his mechanics to break down resulting in bad mistakes (eg floating sideline throws returned for 6) and simply isn’t consistent. Against top tier, power 5 conference opponents (Iowa & Oregon last year), Allen was mediocre. Thanks to the rookie salary scale and the premium on starting QB pay, NFL teams are now deploying a strategy of reaching at quarterback since a hit drives massive contractual cost advantages (with less downside that pre-rookie scale). Allen essentially hit the NFL at the right time in his career, as his talent is more of a late 2nd to 3rd round.

Opportunity: Buffalo is at the bottom of any ranking of skill position talent in the NFL. Their best receiver is LeSean McCoy (RB6), after that, it’s Charles Clay (TE10), Kelvin Benjamin (WR40), Zay Jones (WR78) and a whole bunch nothing. The offensive line is average but does that really matter with the options surrounding their early “hope cast” future franchise quarterback.

Long-term: The probability Allen is an adequate or better starting quarterback over a full season seems low. Playing at a much lower level (non-power 5 conference), his college statistics weren’t great (56% Comp %), he only started 25 total games and his athletic profile isn’t elite. From a fantasy perspective, Allen is a red flag, player to avoid for me. There’s a point where the reward is worth the risk, however, that’s lower than most people in your respective leagues will value him so best to let others take the poor odds.