Can Guice bring the Run Game back to Washington?

The Washington football team selected LSU running back, Derrius Guice, with the 59th selection in the 2018 NFL draft. Guice plays hard…

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Can Guice bring the Run Game back to Washington?

Guice is a power back with more versatility than people realize.

The Washington football team selected LSU running back, Derrius Guice, with the 59th selection in the 2018 NFL draft. Guice plays hard, running through arm tackles, over tacklers with acceleration to break away in the open field. His size and running style compares to Zeke Elliott and all-time great Frank Gore. The comp is most noticeable with his quick cutting, physical running style. If Guice is even 80% of those two guys, he will develop into a top 10 NFL back and be a fantasy asset for years to come. Analytics, college production, situation, and tape project Guice as a high floor RB2 performer. He lacks the perennial top 5 upside of fellow rookies Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Rashard Penny and Sony Michel.

RB Derrius Guice

• Size: 5’10” / 224
• Draft Selection: #59 (2018)
• Depth Chart: RB1 (competing w/ Chris Thompson 4 targets & Samaje Perine for carries)
• ’18 Outlook: RB3 (RB2 if he gains more passing down snaps)
• Analytics: Good (Player Profiler)
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dhasickestt/
• NFL Comparison: Ezekiel Elliott / Frank Gore

Outlook: Washington employs an offensive friendly system under Jay Gruden but he’s lacked a consistent and versatile running back option. An understudy to Leonard Fournette in ’16, Guice has more versatility to excel on all three downs at the NFL level than his former teammate. Adept at powering for tough yards and making open field moves for big gainers, he walks into the early down role. Fellow RB Chris Thompson is established as the passing down back. While off-field concerns and attitude could be a concern (it’s reported attitude caused him to drop out of 1st round), the talent is legitimate and Washington has immediate opportunity to turn Guice into a fantasy starter.

Opportunity: The Washington football club has deployed a true backfield by committee under Jay Gruden. No one player has exceeded 202 carries (last two years it’s been sub 172) and they’ve mixed/matched based on the opponent (and injury status). One could say it’s Gruden’s approach, conversely, it could be the personnel. Gruden hasn’t had a back with Guice’s skillset. A very productive SEC player, who had to face stacked boxes on an inept passing offense, Guice was able to excel. On tape he’s impressive. This is a player who should receive 15 carries per game, which would give him 240 for the season. He won’t catch too many balls (Washington RB1’s have avg. 20 targets the past 5 years) but his hands are above average, so he could turn that 20 targets into 15 catches and another 100+ scrimmage yards. The projection is RB2 with limited chance to exceed that (and some downside if assumption on talent and usage are too aggressive).

Long-term: Guice showed a true three-down skill set. He runs angry, he’s a sound pass blocking and demonstrated a good receiving technique. His running style though initiates contact which will induce a higher probability of injuries. Furthermore, Washington’s offense could decline over the next two to three years. QB Alex Smith is near the tail end of his career and there aren’t a ton of established receiving weapons to keep defenses honest. Talent level alone, Guice has the ability to develop into a low-end RB1, though more than likely churns out several RB2 seasons before his body starts to break down in six or seven years.