Capital Gains: How NFL Draft Picks Forecast Fantasy Futures

Where a prospect is selected has a material impact on their opportunity and probability of success. Discussing where rookies rank for…

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Capital Gains: How NFL Draft Picks Forecast Fantasy Futures

Capital Gains: How NFL Draft Picks Forecast Fantasy Futures
_Episode 123 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast is a view into why NFL Draft capital (where a prospect was…_share.transistor.fm

Where a prospect is selected has a material impact on their opportunity and probability of success. Discussing where rookies rank for fantasy in the upcoming 2025 season can be found here. However this episode goes through the raw numbers by position to look at success based on draft position.

The Tl;dr — 7% of rookie quarterbacks selected outside of the 1st round ever have a QB1 season. Dak Prescott is the outlier, Brock Purdy & Russell Wilson are the exception, not the norm. Similar stats for running backs and wide receivers, though the probability increases slightly and we must include day 2 selections (2nd & 3rd) round.