Fantasy Football Positional Battles Heading into Week 1

There are a lot of opinions and narratives out of NFL training camps but the pecking order in the games and reports from the regulars in…

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Fantasy Football Positional Battles Heading into Week 1

There are a lot of opinions and narratives out of NFL training camps but the pecking order in the games and reports from the regulars in attendance don’t lie. With preseason games complete and final regular season rosters sets, here is where we are with the biggest open question marks with teams that will be fantasy relevant.

New England Starting QB — Belicheck ended the debate this week by releasing Cam Newton and anointing the rookie Mac Jones as his Tom Brady clone with the starting QB job. Jones was fantastic in the preseason but what did we learn and is the hype getting ahead of his game? My take is the Patriots have arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL (seriously look at the group) and this team will channel early Brady teams where they were heavily run focused with systematic, spread the ball around, no receiver with more than 900 yards production. Go look up their 2001 & 2003 super bowl teams, Troy Brown in the 850 yard range led them in receiving yards. There are no top 30 fantasy WR’s on this team and no top 10 TE’s. You can get spot starts from Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Jacobi Meyers among others. But this will be a RB focused team that produces a RB2 (Damien Harris) and a RB Flex (James White) and there is some deep sleeper potential from JJ Taylor as well. Mac Jones is not a top 20 fantasy QB this year.

Chicago Starting QB — Matt Nagy, Chicago’s head coach, has steadfastly stuck with Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback. The challenge with that is Dalton is likely the 3rd best on his own team behind steady Nick Foles and rookie Justin Fields (#11 overall pick). Nagy is trying to say he’s “protecting Fields” but if he doesn’t change his mind, he’ll be an early leader in the 1st coach to be fired sweepstakes. Dalton is the starter, he’s a poor QB2, but I’m buying Justin Fields as a likely QB1 once he gets the starting job mid-season (likely once the Halas family fires Nagy).

SF 49’ers Starting QB — With Lance’s finger injury the chatter has been muted but reading between the lines, the 49’ers will stick with Jimmy Garappolo as their nominal starter barring injury, and Lance will be used in a gadget manner to give defenses a unique look. As a 49’ers fan I like that the pressure won’t be on Lance (vast majority of best QB’s sat/learned to start NFL career). The issue is it will limit Jimmy G’s fantasy value (low end QB2) and keep Lance from having any fantasy value in redraft leagues.

New Orleans QB + WR’s — Jameis Winston is an overrated real world quarterback but an above average fantasy one. I see a player who will open up the Saints offense that retreated the past 3 years as Brees arm strength plummeted. The challenge is that the Saints receiving corp has been decimated due to injuries and salary cap debt coming due. Everybody is enamored with Marquez Callaway, and folks shouldn’t sleep on Tre’Quan Smith but those are their top 2 targets for at least the first 6 weeks of the season. Winston is a quality QB2 (for superflex leagues) but little upside for top 10 and I don’t see any WR being even a quality WR3 until Michael Thomas returns.

Miami Starting RB — Dolphins HC Brian Flores loves former 7th rounder, Myles Gaskin. Gaskin was a top 15 fantasy RB producer during his 7th starts (he finished the season as #27 fantasy RB with 972 total scrimmage yards & 5 TD’s). However it also appears this will be a RBBC (running back by committee) as they’re rotated Malcolm Brown in the starting unit, and Flores has said Salvon Ahmed will also receive regular touches. Gaskin is a RB3 (with upside if Brown is only short-yardage back), Brown is a flex option and Ahmed is a deep sleeper.

LA Rams RB — Sean McVay, Rams HC, says Henderson will be the primary back but has also stated health permitting and held him out of the preseason. Sony Michel has 1st round pedigree but has looked pedestrian through 4 NFL seasons. The production is likely 60/40 between these two, with Henderson a solid RB2 and Michel a consistent Flex option so long as they both stay healthy.

Jacksonville RB — I’m not sure there’s a lot to discuss here but wanted to cover the obvious improvement to James Robinson’s outlook. I am a big Travis Etienne fan as a Kamara type but with him out for the season, Robinson will get the lionshare of touches. If you believe in Trevor Lawrence, I do, this offense will take a jump, Robinson will be the beneficiary as a likely top 10, low end RB1.

Philly Receivers — There’s so little feedback out of Eagles camp that we’re all left to speculate. What we have heard is Jalen Raegor has looked fantastic and they like their rookie DaVonte Smith. This team also loves its Tight Ends so any fantasy analysis must take into consideration Dallas Goedert & Zack Ertz. With Jalen Hurts named the starter, you can expect him to rely on safe bets but overall efficiency is likely low. I doubt a WR is a top 20 performer this season overall. Rookie Smith likely leads them in targets in the 100 range (60 catches for 750 yards seems most probable). Goedert & Ertz likely are both involved, negating either’s ability to be a high end fantasy option but both could end up in top 15 at TE. Avoid this team’s receivers if you’re not in a deep league.

Houston QB/RB/WR’s — I said I wouldn’t cover dumpster fire teams however I feel compelled to cover the Texans. Unless you’re in a 16 team league, you should avoid Texans like the Delta variant. I like Tyrod Taylor. I have loved Mark Ingram, Philip Lindsay & Brandin Cooks in the past but on this team, none of these guys are in a position to be successful. For bye weeks or injury replacements, it’s possible some of these are worth rostering but it could be a bad year rotating through Davis Mills starts and the team unofficially tanking for a top pick in 2022. Winless in Houston is a realistic outcome this season so avoid these players.