LeBron’s Summer Decision

Be prepared to be overwhelmed with speculation and gossip on LeBron James next home. The drama is at its peak because LeBron’s impact is…

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LeBron’s Summer Decision

Be prepared to be overwhelmed with speculation and gossip on LeBron James next home. The drama is at its peak because LeBron’s impact is huge (8 straight final appearances; 9 in 15 seasons and 3 titles) so every fan sees championship stars at the possibility of him joining their team. Coupled with “The King’s” track record of making bold moves (to Miami in ’10 & Cleveland in ’14) and bad blood between him & the Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert, has resulted in a consensus public opinion that he will leave Cleveland this summer for a new destination.

Over the past decade LeBron James has made his GOAT case (in addition to the finals appearances), a 4 time MVP winner, the man who delivered “the land” (Cleveland) its 1st major sports title in 50+ years; he’s become the unquestionable player of this generation. Any argument counter to that is silly. Which is why IF he leaves Cleveland, he will shift the power dynamic in the league.

The list of suitors might as well include all thirty teams, however this decision, in LeBron’s own words, will come down to a) Post Career $$ — Where is my earning power greatest for the long term & b) Family — where do my wife & I want to raise our family?

LeBron’s desire to be a billionaire and to own an NBA team are goals he speaks openly about. At his post finals press conference he alluded to his desire to eventually be an owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the NBA CBA does NOT allow player ownership (or any future contingent ownership), it’s clear that LeBron is set on owning an NBA team. The unique underlying component here though is value created by LeBron’s presence in Cleveland. According to independent reports, the Cavs value took a 25% hit when he left in 2010, at today’s evaluation that’s more than $300 million. Furthermore he generates millions in annual revenue that drops to the bottom line of both the Cavs and the Cleveland area economy. Conversely LeBron has built his post career business ventures in the Los Angeles area. He has a media company, and many of his biggest investments (such as founding investor and now endorser of Chipotle like Blaze Pizza) are based in the region.

LeBron has stated numerous times the importance family will play in his decision. While this could be hyperbole, it’s shared by those close to him such as Dwayne Wade, who said LeBron will focus on “lifestyle” at this point in his career. Cleveland, or Akron to be precise, should be the front runner if family is the only decision. It’s where he and his wife grew up and they’ve raised their children so far there. If LeBron didn’t feel strongly about northern Ohio, he would never have returned in 2014. However James’ owns an impressive home in Los Angeles and have started to spend their summers in LA the past few years. In short Northern Ohio and Los Angeles are the only two places the “family” is familiar living.

Since legacy & family will be the driving forces in LeBron’s decision, he will either stay in Cleveland or move to LA, likely playing for the Lakers. And the detail that will ultimately decide his path is whether Dan Gilbert (Cavs owner) can “creatively” provide James a path towards Cavs ownership and mend some of the bad blood. If he can accomplish that, then he will stay in Cleveland. If he can not set aside ego (and skirt the CBA rules a little), then LeBron will move to LA, likely with the Lakers.

What about winning titles and defeating the Warriors you ask? For one, LeBron has NOT once said “winning titles” is his goal in his decision. Furthermore the Lakers salary cap situation and young talent are being undervalued. The Lakers can sign LeBron + another max superstar this year AND keep it’s core group of three young talents (Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball). LeBron is the world’s best player, combined with another max player (eg Paul George), immediately creates one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. Can they dethrone the world champs? Maybe not but never count out LeBron and that lineup is as strong as any other in the NBA sans Golden State.