NFL Draft 2021 1st Round Pick Fantasy Analysis

The 2021 NFL draft is in the books and it was one for the ages. We didn’t have a record 5 QB’s in the first ten picks but we had the…

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NFL Draft 2021 1st Round Pick Fantasy Analysis

The 2021 NFL draft is in the books and it was one for the ages. We didn’t have a record 5 QB’s in the first ten picks but we had the highest selected tight end in history (Kyle Pitts), the first 6 picks were skill position players and there were 2 RB’s selected in the 1st round. The fantasy football landscape is flush with fresh toys to contemplate, overvalue and ultimately shift the perceptions of rankings for the upcoming 2021 season.

Here is an overview of the most valuable fantasy relevant NFL draft picks in order of their selection (or in fantasy twitter parlance; Draft Capital) of the 1st round. The 2nd round can be found here.

JAX — #1 QB Trevor Lawrence — The anointed one, or as ESPN hammered home during this draft season, the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. I am not sold on him as savior or sure fire future hall of famer. He’s good and there is a lot to like about Urban Meyer’s potential at the NFL level. But let’s not forget lifelong college coaches turned NFL head honchos have a terrible track record (e.g. Steve Spurrier & Nick Saban). Lawrence has a shot to be special, he’s got emerging surrounding talent (Marvin Jones is a veteran, nearly every other option will have 2 or less years of NFL experience). I like the pairing of his former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne as a nice security blanket but he’s still a rookie on a 1–15 team.

Prediction: QB2 — rosterable in all leagues with upside in the right matchups. QB1 dynasty value down the road. But don’t buy into projecting QB1 production in ’21 b/c he’s not a runner and this team will be more run first than people realize (Urban Meyer likes to run and the Jags will work hard to stay competitive in games).

NYJ — #2 QB Zach Wilson — I am not sold. He’s talented and I certainly can be wrong. But the Jets lack proven offensive weapons, this franchise is a year or two away (forever), and Wilson could easily suffer the same fate as Sam Darnold. For fantasy purposes Wilson is stuck as a bottom of the barrel of the first round QB selections.

Prediction: QB3 — only rosterable in the deepest of leagues or if you’re a forsaken NY Jets fan. Has potential to develop into a franchise savior and QB1 but probability of this is very low.

SF — #3 QB Trey Lance — Great landing spot. For 2021 fantasy purposes this isn’t a viable pick but if you’re picking for the long haul, this is arguably the best situational talent. Some will speculate that Lance could ascend to a prominent role this year but reading the tea leaves, the 49’ers want Jimmy Garrapolo to repeat his 2019. This gives Lance valuable assimilation time, rebuilds Jimmy G’s value and they transition in 2022.

Prediction: N/A — Not rosterable except in dynasty leagues unless you’re betting on a Jimmy G injury. QB1 dynasty value.

ATL — #4 TE Kyle Pitts — Rookie tight ends haven’t ever been fantasy relevant. The Pats Aaron Hernandez & Gronk rookie year being the exception. The pundits will say Pitts is the exception, that he’s less tight end, more hybrid offensive weapon. I have my doubts with a team that already features a future hall of famer (Julio Jones), one of the league’s top secondary receivers (Calvin Ridley) and an above average receiving TE (Hayden Hurst). Pitts is special, he will have an immediate impact on Atlanta’s offense but I question whether their offense will have enough production to make Pitts anything more than a borderline TE1 this year. Expect Pitts to play a hybrid slot/TE position, and is a great talent in dynasty leagues but based on Arthur Smith’s history (look at TENN 2 TE offenses e.g.), I am projecting many will be disappointed in Pitts overall 2021 production.

Prediction: TE2 with upside and a strong dynasty pick as projected TE1+ in ‘22.

CIN — #5 WR Ja’Marr Chase — I love the link up with his college QB in an offense looking for a difference maker to pair with elite possession man Tyler Boyd. This is a crowded situation though with Boyd, Tee Higgins and a QB returning from a major knee injury. Throw in concerns with protection and there are legitimate question marks. That said Chase walks into 100+ target situation and comfort/history with his quarterback that should translate into a very high floor.

Prediction: WR3 floor w/ WR2 likely production. I don’t see the lofty WR1 predictions out of the gate but that’s where his dynasty value sits.

MIA — #6 WR Jaylen Waddle — There are many who compare Waddle favorably to Tyreek Hill. They call out his explosive YAC, playmaking ability at all levels of the field, running and receiving. While I see some of that on film, my concern is more with the offensive situation that Waddle lands in. Tua was pedestrian last year, struggling to make plays down the field, and their offense in general played a conservative, grind it out type style. The skillset says he can and should be a featured guy. Situation though maybe a max of 100 targets and a couple dozen touches in the run game.

Prediction: Flex / WR3 with some upside if Tua emerges in his second year.

NYG — #10 WR DeVonte Smith — This is where the landing spot opportunity best meets talent for the receiver class. Smith is in the same talent class as Pitts, Chase or Waddle, and he lands in Philly which has 120+ targets and the featured receiver spot wide open. The floor for Smith is 100 targets in this offense. Combine that Smith has experience playing with Hurts (@ Alabama in ’17 & ‘18), has elite route running & hands, he’s a sure bet to be fantasy relevant right out of the gates.

Prediction: WR3 with WR2+ upside if Hurts and the Philly offense clicks.

CHI — #11 QB Justin Fields — The Chicago Bears have been searching for a franchise leader, a long-term answer at the quarterback position for decades. Some will point to Jim McMahon, or even Jay Cutler, as examples and periods where they had a solution. You have to go back to Sid Luckman in the 1940’s to pinpoint a true “franchise” QB though. McMahon won a super bowl with arguably the best NFL defense in history and Cutler was a fun, modern day Jeff George but he never was a stable, year in and out winner. Fields may never live up to the promise, he may not become the star the city deserves but he certainly has the potential. In most drafts Fields would have been a certain top 2 pick after being a top recruit and an absolute stellar college performer at the highest level. But due to circumstances I don’t understand, he dropped to 11 and has all the talent in the world to be the next Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes type to make most, if not all, the teams that pass on him bummed for the next decade.

Prediction: QB2 with QB1 production in ’21 due to wheels. Q1+ dynasty value.

NE — #15 QB Mac Jones — Jones falls into the age-old debate of whether it was his talent that elevated the best college football program in decades to another national title or the 9 offensive players that were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft the past two years. My rationale is Jones had the same or possibly less skill-position talent around him that Joe Burrow had (Justin Jefferson, CEH, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall) but was even better (more efficient) a year later. He showed elite pocket awareness and accuracy, and by all accounts is an incredible leader. The question though remains…

Prediction: Low-end QB2 if he starts but do not forget he joins an abysmal surrounding cast in New England. QB1 dynasty upside IF you believe.

NYG — #20 WR Kedarius Toney — The most polarizing skill position selection of the 1st round, Toney draws comparisons to Percy Harvin, Curtis Samuel, and a litany of other playmakers. The raw talent is clear on film and looking at the workout metrics, the challenge is Toney’s maturity and whether he’s ready to put in the hard work to realize his natural talent. I have doubts, and he enters an underrated room of talent with Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram ahead of him in the pecking order. While the shiny new toy could jump ahead of that group, most of them have been productive pros, were great prospects, and won’t easily be pushed aside.

Prediction: WR Flex in ’21 with upside to WR3 or long-term bust. I project Toney to be a solid special teams performer and above-average slot receiver with little to no fantasy value long-term.

PIT — #24 RB Najee Harris — If it’s possible to be an underrated Alabama running back, Najee Harris, not to be confused with (and unrelated to) Damian, could be it. Statistically, he compiled 4,600 yards and scored 57 TD’s from scrimmage, showing a power game and finesse third-down skill set that foreshadows an every-down skill set at the NFL level. The fact he did this for the goliath of college football and few of us took notice is the shock. The truth is if he landed in Buffalo he would immediately be heralded as a top 5 fantasy back this year.

Prediction: RB1 with some downside. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is maligned but there will be improvement and the weapons are in place for Harris to be a fantasy rookie of the year candidate.

JAX — #25 RB Travis Etienne — The Clemson product was a college hall of fame level performer compiling 6,100+ yards and 78 TD’s from scrimmage. Like Harris he was a 4 year contributor which explains some of the gotti numbers but it takes talent to run for nearly 5k yards and receive for 1k+ more. Etienne is a multi-purpose playmaker, built in the LaDanian Tomlinson mold, he can grind out tough yards, break big plays and contribute in all phases of the game. While he faces some competition from incumbent James Robinson, HC Meyer has already stated they want him in a hybrid (RB + WR) role. In short Robinson will lose value and Etienne will have some CMac potential right out of the gate getting touches on the ground & air.

Prediction: RB2 with upside if Trevor Lawrence and the Urban Meyer offense click early on, and he gets a handful of targets a week from the slot. Dynasty wise he’s the highest-rated RB in this class.

BAL — #27 WR Rashod Bateman — The Ravens under John Harbaugh and specifically with Lamar Jackson at quarterback appear to be the NFL exception to the expansion of the passing game. The team has thrown good draft capital at the wide receiver & tight end positions with mediocre to abysmal results (Breshad Perriman 1st in ’15; Maxx Williams 2nd in ’15; Hayden Hurts 1st in ’18; Mark Andrews 3rd in ’18; Marquise Brown 1st in ’19; Miles Boykin 3rd in ’19; Devin Durvernay 3rd in ’20) for fantasy production purposes with little results to show. Andrews is memorable, the 1st’s have all been fantasy busts to date. The reality is Lamar Jackson is a run-first quarterback in a run-first offense.

Prediction: WR Flex with upside to WR3. Bateman could buck the trend and be the difference-maker the Ravens have lacked forever….literally forever. The odds are stacked against it. If you believe in Bateman then maybe wait until ’22 when he disappoints, acquire him cheap, stash him until his 2nd contract in ‘25.