NFL Draft Fantasy Fits

NFL teams have established expectations with their draft selections. The first two days (rounds 1–3) teams expect immediate contribution…

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NFL Draft Fantasy Fits

NFL Draft 2016 Logo

NFL teams have established expectations with their draft selections. The first two days (rounds 1–3) teams expect immediate contribution and short-term starting ability. Most teams expect first round talents to be start immediately with capability to develop into pro bowl performers. Second round selections are expected to immediately compete for a starting job, and at the very least be strong complementary contributors in the first year (think situational pass rusher, nickel/slot back, 3rd down back) and third rounders as near term starters that will play primary backup/situational roles immediately. These are considered premium picks, teams simply can’t miss on them so they more frequently pair talent with opportunity in these rounds which results in higher propensity for production. Thus for fantasy purposes it’s crucial to focus in on the premium picks over the rest given the value.

The non premium pick rounds of the NFL Draft (4–7) is when teams start to view the value and expectations of these players much lower, and hence they take more chances. In the projection game we’re playing with fantasy, we can’t eliminate this crucial NFL fact, and thus for purposes of Best Fantasy Fits, all selections made after the 3rd round were eliminated (with the exception of 2 RB’s).

I’ve broken this into Good and Bad Fits, by position, from the NFL Draft’s first three rounds. I have included a general projection for 2016 as well as dynasty formats. I will later (likely this week) publish a composite ranking of top rookies for ’16 and dynasty as well as a list of non-premium selections.

Best Fits

QB Jared Goff (#1, LA Rams) — Goff will start from day one, and the Rams did an adequate job of stocking up on WR talent. Goff has the poise and arm to be a solid starting NFL QB, but he’s not a special, going to make everybody around him better type. Think of a projection between Matt Ryan & Alex Smith. He’s a long shot to be an elite fantasy producer (especially under Jeff Fisher) and may never be a top QB but he’ll solve the Rams revolving door since Marc Bulger flamed out a decade ago.

• ’16 Projection: Low QB2 Production
• Dynasty: Borderline QB1

QB Paxton Lynch (#26, Denver) — There’s been a lot of conjecture on this selection; regardless Lynch could not have dreamed of a better landing spot. The Broncos are the defending champs, employ a great defense and he inherits a strong skill position supporting cast. Couple that with desire to develop Lynch by sitting him to learn while starting veteran Mark Sanchez in ’16, ensures a proper learning process that historically maximizes probability of success. Lynch is a more athletic and college productive version of Brock Osweiler, so there is a nice ceiling for him (BTW — it’s clear John Elway has a “type).

• ’16 Projection: Bench/QB2
• Dynasty: Borderline QB1

QB Jacoby Brisset (#91, NE) — I’m putting Brisset here for one reason, the Patriots are looking for post-Brady starting QB AND depth/starting for the start of the ’16 season. In addition the Pats (minus a 1st rounder) would never use a third round selection on a QB if they were confident on their current backup option (Jimmy Garapopolo). He has the size, arm and athletic attributes, its just a matter of development. For redraft leagues Brisset is nearly worthless but dynasty leaguers shouldn’t discount him as Brady is pushing 40 and the Pats transition will happen much sooner than anybody realizes.

• ’16 Projection: Bench
• Dynasty: QB1

RB Ezekiel Elliott (#4, Dallas) — some are saying he’ll be #3 overall fantasy RB this year as he landed in the absolute ideal spot to maximize his ability and production. Dallas has arguably the best run blocking line in the NFL; a top WR & TE to keep defenses from loading up and an above average overall team looking to control the clock offensive philosophy. All in all this is a perfect fit for Elliott, a true 3 down back with excellent pass blocking, catching and running ability. Elliott is the #1 overall redraft and dynasty rookie by a mile.

• ’16 Projection: RB1 (top 5)
• Dynasty: Perennial RB1

RB C. J. Prosise (#90, Seattle) — Prosise has to beat out Thomas Rawls and others but using a premium pick on him means Seattle is invested. Throw in the natural skills, he’s a threat on 3rd down and is a big body to run between the tacklers. Likely scenario is he gets change of pace carries aside Rawls but historically the Seahawks ride one hand, so he could excel and steal touches from Rawls, who the Seahawks have very little invested in. The fact Seattle used a 3rd & 5th rounder on tailbacks says they’re not sold on their current depth chart.

• ’16 Projection: RB Flex
• Dynasty: Borderline RB1

RB Kenyan Drake (#73, Miami) — Jay Ajayi’s value took a small hit with this selection. Drake is assured of a rotation spot (barring injury) in an above average offense with only Ajayi of note on the depth chart. He’s a dynamic player in the open field / edges, and he’s likely to get 10+ touches a week as the backup, which could end up being RB3 or better production. I’m not sure Drake will ever be a featured back, he’s more of a change of pace skill set but he certainly can be a dynamic playmaker. Don’t forget though that Ajayi was a 5th round pick last year and Drake an early 3rd round selection, under a new regime.

• ’16 Projection: RB Flex
• Dynasty: RB2

RB Kenneth Dixon (#134, Baltimore) — The 4th rounder made this list because he could projects to be one of the most fantasy relevant player sans Ezekiel Elliott. Dixon is a do everything, underrated throwback featured back type. He enters a fluid backfield with only Justin Forsett (at 32) ahead of him and a perfect skill set/scheme fit for OC Trestman. Dixon is an early rookie of the year candidate IF he can carry a strong performance through minicamp and training camp.

• ’16 Projection: RB2
• Dynasty: Borderline RB1

WR Laquon Treadwell (#23, Minnesota) — There are receivers I like more but Treadwell landed in arguably the best situation of any skill position player this side of Elliott. Vikings have a young, talented accurate passer lacking a contested catch, big bodied, possession security blanket. They lack any established go to receiving options in general. Coupled with a solid offensive line and the game’s most decorated active running back means Treadwell could conceivably see 140+ targets next year with high efficiency. His ceiling is lower than some others in this class but he could be a fantasy WR2 this year with upside to be perennial low end WR1.

• ’16 Projection: WR2
• Dynasty: WR1

WR Josh Doctson (#22, Washington) — The Redskins have what many will consider to be a stocked group of receiving options in Jordan Reed (TE), Pierre Garcon & Desean Jackson at WR. But if you look more closely you’ll realize that Jay Gruden was lacking a featured receiver to build around. Both Garcon and Jackson are on the other side of 30, neither has been a traditional featured guy and the depth chart likely will be very different come ’17. Doctson is a stud, he can make tough, contested catches, he runs solid routes and knows how to create space.

• ’16 Projection: WR Flex
• Dynasty: WR1

WR Sterling Shepard (#40, NY Giants) — Eli Manning loves three WR sets and has had his best years when he had a high quality slot/#3 option. Shepard is an incredible route running tactician; a player who already knows how to create space and make plays. Even if Victor Cruz is fully healthy Shepard looks like a potential highly productive fantasy WR2 type, and long-term he’s the perfect complement to the defensive focused counterpart, Odell Beckman.

• ’16 Projection: WR Flex
• Dynasty: WR2

WR Corey Coleman (#15, Cleveland) — If Coleman had landed in Minnesota or Washington, I’d have him atop my WR rankings. He’s simply the best overall receiver in this class, albeit in a class a step below the past few years. However landing in Cleveland, lacking any continuity on offense and rebuilding at every position, means even a featured receiver who gets a ton of targets may fail to be productive in fantasy. He remains on the list though as he has a clear path to WR1 in Cleveland and there’s hope with the new front office/coaching staff that by ’17 this team could look like Oakland does today. Don’t hold your breath though.

• ’16 Projection: WR3
• Dynasty: WR1 by ‘18

WR Michael Thomas (#47, NO) — The heir to Marques Colston’s production? That will be the narrative for some and I’m buying it. The Saints tested Brandon Coleman in that role last year but he didn’t seize it. Thomas has the body and physical skill to complement Brandon Cooks and become the security blanket in the middle of the field for Drew Brees. His ceiling isn’t off the charts but his floor is higher than most. He’s a potential WR2 this season (watch training camp reports closely) and a perennial top 20 fantasy producer in years ahead if he clicks with Brees and settles into that Colston type role.

• ’16 Projection: WR3
• Dynasty: WR2

TE Austin Hooper (#81, Atlanta) — Hooper was underused in the Stanford offense but he has the potential to be a strong middle of the field, chain mover type for Matt Ryan; filling the void missing since Tony Gonzales retired. A top recruit out of high school; Hooper has the size, hands and athletic ability to make contested catches, challenge the seam and body up in the red zone. These are all key attributes of Tony Gonzales. Hooper doesn’t have that level of skill but he could surprise as a TE2 in ’16 and ascend into lower end TE1 territory in ’17.

• ’16 Projection: TE2
• Dynasty: TE1

K Robert Aguayo (#59, Tamba Bay) — I wouldn’t normally list a kicker at all but Aguayo isn’t a normal kicker and the Bucs trading up for him wasn’t normal either. In short Aguayo is a lethal weapon, highly accurate with a leg to consistently hit long attempts. He’s certainly not worth spending fantasy draft capital early on but in Tamba Bay, with an improving offense, he could flirt with top ten production in ’16 and ascend to top five position in ’17 and beyond.

• ’16 Projection: Borderline K1
• Dynasty: K1

Bad Fits

QB Christian Hackenberg (#51, NY Jets) — I’m biased as I see Hackenberg as a later round, developmental type player. Thus when he landed in NY Jets in the 2nd round with a potential to play in ’16, I hated it. The Jets will throw him to the fire sooner rather than later, and likely increase the odds of him busting. In short if Hackenberg is required to play any regular season action before ’17, I think he’ll be a wasted pick, and shouldn’t be on fantasy radars as anything other than a deep, sleeper for ’17 or beyond. Long term I see a highly flawed player who lacks accuracy, footwork, timing or intangibles of franchise quarterbacks.

• ’16 Projection: Bench
• Dynasty: QB2

QB Cody Kessler (#93, Cleveland) — Kessler was a hyped prospect heading into the ’15 season but he struggled when confronted with turmoil (USC program). He has some NFL attributes (size, accuracy) but also lacks some key ones (arm strength, anticipation, footwork). If you give the new front office & coaching staff the benefit of the doubt, then this could be a good fit. The silver lining is you don’t spend a 3rd round pick on a player you don’t have a vision/plan for and this is the first QB selected by this group (coaching staff & front office). Dynasty/Keeper leaguers take note, he’s worth a stash if you can get him as the #5 or #6 QB (after Goff, Lynch, Wentz, and maybe C Jones and/or D. Prescott).

• ’16 Projection: Backup
• Dynasty: QB2 in ‘17

QB Conner Cook (#100, Oakland) — I’m not a huge Cook fan either; combine that with landing in Oakland behind rising young star Derek Carr, means Cook is a developmental backup at best for the next 4 years. This maybe long-term though a great landing spot for Cook personally, since he’ll get time (possibly 3+ years) to sit/learn before he gets a legitimate starting opportunity. History says that’s a high probability of success, it just requires patience. For fantasy purposes, he only has value in deep keeper/dynasty league formats.

• ’16 Projection: Backup
• Dynasty: QB2 in ‘20

RB Derrick Henry (#45, TENN) — If the powers leading the Titans franchise see the next Eddie George in this selection of Henry, then throw out what I’ve written below but add the following — why trade for and pay the top 10 RB salary for DeMarco Murray if you’re investing a top 45 selection at the position? Henry has the look of a classic between the tackles tank, a throw back to the 70’s/80’s. His athletic measurements are indicative of a player with tremendous upside; think a better Brandon Jacobs. Henry still projects to be a fantasy RB2 in ’16 with upside to be top 10 perennial performer, it’s just less certain than it should be based on where he was drafted.

• ’16 Projection: RB3
• Dynasty: Borderline RB1

RB Tyler Ervin (#114, Houston) — Given the decline in draft value for the RB position and to make up for the fact I included a 4th round RB in the “best fits” section, I decided to include one on the “bad” as well. I LOVE Ervin, he tested as one of the best athletes at the combine, a true workout warrior. But he also was incredibly productive as the featured offensive weapon at San Jose State the past year+. He’s somebody who handled a lot of between the tackles carries even at a smaller size (194 lbs) but is lethal in space. In short he’s a player I’ve been tracking sense the fall and started to fall in love with following the senior bowl and combine. Landing in Houston, where they just invested a top 10 RB contract on Lamar Miller and their offense overall is mediocre at best; means Ervin is at best a fantasy backup for the near term.

• ’16 Projection: Bench
• Dynasty: RB3

WR Will Fuller (#21, Houston) — I like Fuller as a player, he’s explosive, consistently showed playmaking ability at Notre Dame and looks like a more complete Mike Wallace type entering the NFL. However landing in Houston means they’ll use him in a one dimensional manner, to extend the defense or take the top off to create separation for DeAndre Hopkins and room between the tackles for Lamar Miller. This equates to inconsistent production, which isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes. Throw in the existing competition (Hopkins is WR1, J. Strong last year’s 3rd and Braxton Miller a 3rd round selection this year) and average quarterback caps Fuller’s ceiling for the next few years at minimum.

• ’16 Projection: WR Flex
• Dynasty: WR2

WR Tyler Boyd (#55, CINN) — Boyd is a classic possession receiver. He lacks acceleration and quickness to stretch the defense, and isn’t big enough to dominant with physicality. He versatile though, showing ability to run gadget plays, reverses and complement perennial all pro AJ Green. If you assume the Bengals offense maintains its lofty ’15 production (even though they lost OC Hue Jackson) then Boyd could be looking at WR2 opportunity but historically it’s likely more of a WR3 / WR Flex. That’s disappointing given the Bengals used a 2nd round pick though.

• ’16 Projection: WR Flex
• Dynasty: WR3

TE Hunter Henry (#35, SD) — Henry was the presumptive top tight end in this draft class, he has the seam stretching type of size/speed and looks like a Gary Barnidge/Jordan Cameron type. However landing in San Diego means being a rotation guy behind the ageless Antonio Gates in ’16. If Gates retires then Henry becomes the top TE in Chargerland but there’s no guarantee that happens in ’17, so it could be 3 years before Henry is truly a fantasy commodity, hence the “bad fit” moniker.

• ’16 Projection: TE3
• Dynasty: TE1 by ‘18

I’ll address the non premium pick players later this week. There are many fantasy relevant players in redraft leagues and it’s those 3rd day selections that separate the contenders from the pretenders in dynasty leagues.