NFL Draft Storylines for Fantasy Footballers

Each April as the NFL draft approaches there’s an abundance of opinions on who each team will select and why, however there isn’t as much…

---

NFL Draft Storylines for Fantasy Footballers

Each April as the NFL draft approaches there’s an abundance of opinions on who each team will select and why, however there isn’t as much discussion on the intriguing storylines that will impact the fantasy value of veterans and rookies alike. Here’s a high level look at some of the most obvious ones in the first round who could dramatically impact fantasy values.

Tamba Bay (#1) — QB — It’s the worst secret in the world that the Bucs will select a QB, the only mystery is whether it’s Winston or Mariotta. Winston appears likely to be the choice. Impact: Vincent Jackson & Mike Evans immediately see a slight increase with a competent QB, and Winston becomes a QB2 with some immediate upside. That said I think Winston is no different than Byron Leftwich, they both had great leadership capabilities, arms but they lacked mobility to move in the pocket.

Tennessee (#2) — QB — The Titans continue to stick to Zach Mettenberger as their starting signal caller, but it’s hard to believe they would pass on Mariotta who passes every scout test as a high probability of success NFL starter. Impact: If they select Mariotta, Mettenberger immediately becomes at best an interim starter in ‘15; if they trade down, he is a QB2 with upside simply b/c he’s an unknown. But he still enters ’15 as one of the worst QB2’s in the NFL.

Oakland (#4) — WR — The Raiders need weapons at any position. However they’re desperate for offensive weapons to help the development (and ultimately assessment) of last year’s 2nd round QB pick, Derek Carr. Impact: Carr’s value increases some with Amari Cooper selection but he’s still firmly a QB2 with low probability of producing QB1 numbers. Cooper is more impacted in Oakland though where he becomes a WR1 for Oakland but likely will suffer in terms of fantasy production to being more of a WR3. If he lands in Wash or Chi, he would have more immediate upside thanks to more passing friendly offenses.

New York Jets (#6) — QB — The Jets are clearly hedging their Geno Smith bet. He’s had two years to demonstrate that he’s at best a QB2, so they would be wise to make a play for Mariotta (or Winston). Impact: If they select a QB, Geno Smith would become an interim leader on the board but would certainly have no long-term value in NY and likely be a backup by week 8. Their WR core wouldn’t have a noticeable production impact either way in ‘15.

NY Giants (#9) — RB — If the G-men select a running back here, which I don’t expect, it will have the most direct impact to fantasy of any move yet. Impact: Shane Vereen and Andre Williams immediately become a situational (RB3) and special teams (RB5) fantasy performers to the rookie selected here. I think it’s a long shot but some prognosticators have identified them as a landing spot for a 1st round RB.

Cleveland (#12 & #19) — QB or RB — The Browns selections are where a lot of suspense will be come Thursday as they lack a clear franchise QB AND are still searching for a bell cow, difference maker at RB to compete in the AFC North. Impact: If it’s a QB, then Johnny Manziel’s value plummets. If RB, it dramatically effects the stable of Isiah Crowell (RB4) & Terrence West (RB3). My prediction is they select a RB in round 3 to compete with their current group, but use their 1st rounders on high impact lineman.

San Diego (#17) — RB — The Chargers lost their primary back to free agency (Ryan Matthews to PHI) so several mock drafters have them selecting one in the first round. Recent history says this won’t happen, particularly since they have Donald Brown & Branden Oliver, both of whom performed well in the past, on the roster. Impact: If RB, that player immediately steps into RB1 potential production with a solid supporting cast.

Detroit (#23) — RB — The Lions are one of the teams that have RB listed as a core need but I find it hard to believe they would spend a pick on given their need along both the offensive & defensive lines. Impact: Joique Bell (RB2) would take some fantasy hit but this offense is explosive, so a rookie likely could produce RB2 numbers w/o impacting Bell. I predict they select a RB in round 3 or 4.

Arizona (#24) — RB — The Cardinals are the team most likely to select a RB in the initial round Thursday of the NFL draft. They have a great change of pace option (Andre Ellington) but Bruce Arians wants a bell cow type to control time of possession and give his offense a larger span of options week in and out. Impact: If RB, Ellington’s value would drop some (RB2 to high RB3) but he’s still a quality fantasy producer. The rookie would have RB1 potential production.

Dallas (#27) — RB — The Cowboys are in need of a DeMarco Murray replacement (to PHI via FA) but owner Jerry Jones is adament they won’t select one early. That could be a smoke screen given their roster includes only one veteran with any past production back in ‘11/’12 (Darren McFadden) and another guy looking at a domestic violence suspension (Joseph Randle). Impact: If RB, RB1 production is guaranteed barring an injury. Dallas boasts the best run blocking in the NFL, so he’s a shoe-in.

New England (#32) — RB — The Pats could go RB at the end of the 1st round but that’s not been a positive development for them in the past (aka Laurence Maroney anyone?) and they have more pressing needs. Impact: Unclear to be honest, the Pats & HC Belicheck run on their own timeline. Ultimately a 1st round RB selection would put into question the value of LeGarrette Blount and others.

QB Needs —

Buffalo Bills — they aren’t content with Eli Manual or Matt Cassel, so a selection of Bryce Petty, Garrett Grayson or possibly Brett Hundley in the 2nd or 3rd rounds would further cloud the future of the existing options. Impact: Cassel & Manual will enter camp competing to start but an early QB selection would mean they were the favorite in ’16 and beyond.

Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Houston Texans, KC Chiefs — these teams are all potential landing spots in the 2nd/3rd round for a QB, if any select one it would signal the current crop doesn’t include an existing long-term option. That said no QB selected after the top 15 picks of the draft are expected to sit & learn in year one, so these selections only impact dynasty/keeper league players.

RB Needs —

Indianapolis Colts — They aren’t in desperate need of a RB after signing Frank Gore and getting by with rookie free agents like Dan Herron in the past but they will need to add depth and future talent. Impact: Assuming the player is selected in 3rd round or later, it will have limited impact in ’15 but it will be a potential feature player in ’16 and beyond.

Carolina Panthers — The Panthers have some depth and high end options with Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert and the ultimate hybrid QB/RB Cam Newton. But look beyond the names and it’s an injury riddled group that needs some youth. Impact: An early selection could impact Stewart’s value (RB3) but depends on where they are drafted and their performance in camp (and Stewart’s health).

A lot of questions will be announced by Saturday, though that will open up a whole host of new ones. I’m looking forward to it.