NFL Fantasy Week 16 Starts & Sits + Revisiting Preseason Sleeper Calls

We’re now firmly in the playoff hunt, heading into week 16.

NFL Fantasy Week 16 Starts & Sits + Revisiting Preseason Sleeper Calls

NFL Fantasy Week 16 Starts & Sits + Revisiting Preseason Sleeper Calls
_Episode 61 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast covers how our preseason sleeper predictions performed this season…_share.transistor.fm

We’re now firmly in the playoff hunt, heading into week 16.

But before we jump in, let’s take a quick look at the MVP race.

Brock Purdy is back as the favorite, although he is campaigning for Christian McCaffrey, saying CMC deserves to be the MVP. The guy is leading the league in all categories that matter (passing efficiency, QBR, completion percentage, TD to Interception ratio), and he’s an advanced metrics savant.

The #1 & #2 ranked (based on Las Vegas oddsmakers) players face off on Christmas day when Lamar Jackson’s Ravens play the Purdy 49’ers. That performance, on national tv, with most voters watching, likely will go a long way to deciding who wins the 2023 NFL MVP award.

Revisiting Preseason Sleeper calls.

Link to the original predictions

Misses — QB Deshaun Watson, RB Khahil Herbert, WR’s Skye Moore & Garrett Wilson, and TE Tyler Higbee. Watson and Moore specifically have failed to materialize. Herbert was hit by the injury bug but he’s regressed this season. Higbee has struggled with Stafford focusing more on his receiving trio, and Wilson was going to be a dominant until Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles.
Hits — QB Brock Purdy (he’s the 3rd overall fantasy QB, and NFL MVP favorite); RB Isiah Pacheco (he’s the 16th fantasy RB); RB David Montgomery (the 7th best FPG this season) and WR Adam Thielen (he’s the 21st overall fantasy receiver who cost a late pick)

Players to Start & Avoid in Week 16

Start

QB Justin Fields — playing against Arizona, Fields could run up big fantasy numbers as he plays for his ’24 job. Kyler Murray on the other side of the field, if he’s healthy, is another sleeper option.
RB Rachaad White — Jacksonville has been abysmal stopping the run of late, and White could be multi-dimensional. I’d start White and take it to the bank.
WR Justin Jefferson — remember JJets? He’s still arguably the best receiver in the NFL, he’s fully healthy, and he’s due for a huge game against a terrible pass defense in Detroit. Jordan Addison has been an awesome rookie but it’s Jefferson’s week.
TE Jake Ferguson — a revelation for the Dallas offense, Ferguson is a must start at this point and this week, vs. Miami, he will be a crucial component.
K Jake Elliott — The Philly kicker has had a very good season. The Eagles will move the ball but my hunch is the Giants will do a credible job stalling the Eagles in field goal range a few times in a high scoring effort.

Avoid

QB Russell Wilson — you’re likely not starting him anyway but this could be a game where the Patroits hold the Broncos to less than 10 points, and still lose. Regardless don’t expect Wilson to have a strong week, so if you have another option, go that direction.
RB Jonathan Taylor (or Zach Moss if he plays and Taylor doesn’t) — Everybody is high on Indy’s run game this week vs. Atlanta, but the Falcons are playing for their playoff lives at home, and their defense in general has been stingy all season long. I probably still start Taylor but I would avoid him if I had an alternative.
WR Deebo Samuel — The ravens will game plan to stop the bubble screens and quick ins that Samuel has feasted on the past month. It’s also an Aiyuk and/or Kittle game, and my prediction is this is a tight, lower scoring game, and thus Samuel won’t return the expected value. He’s still in my starting lineup but he is due for a dud game.
TE TJ Hockenson — This is a pure hunch. Hockenson could get revenge and explode against his old team, or the Lions could gameplan to stop him. My prediction is the offense runs through JJets this week and Hockenson is a decoy.
K Cameron Dicker — This should go without saying but avoid all San Diego, I mean, Los Angeles Chargers. This week in particular the Bills are on a mission, they won’t give the Chargers many opportunities, and the team may avoid field goals to keep up with the Bills.

Good luck to you all this week, and happy holidays!