NFL Week 3 Fantasy Musings; Top Players to Keep & Sell

What a weekend of football. It’s not common to have a team drop 70 points. It’s only happened 4 times, and the last instance prior to…

NFL Week 3 Fantasy Musings — Top Players to Keep & Sell

NFL Week 3 Fantasy Musings; Top Players to Keep & Sell
_Episode 38 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast. This episode is our weekly discussion on fantasy performances and…_share.transistor.fm

What a weekend of football. It’s not common to have a team drop 70 points. It’s only happened 4 times, and the last instance prior to Miami’s thumping of Denver, 1966 when Washington scored 72 to beat the NY Giants (who scored 42). What made this game alarming, especially if you’re a Broncos fan, is they were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball. When they finally made a big special teams play (TD return), the Dolphins immediately followed it up with 67 yard TD run by rookie Devon Archane who must go down as the greatest rookie RB debut in NFL history. Although he unfortunately had 1 carry the previous week, so no records here. But let’s recap, the 3rd round pick from Texas A&M ended up with 4 TDs, 18 carries 205 yards rushing, and 4 catches for 30 yards. He had two rushing and 2 receiving TDs on the day. Starting RB Raheem Mostert also had 4 TDs, 13 carries for 82 yards 3 TDs, and 7 catches for 60 yards and another TD. What a fantasy RB duo. I saw it reported that IF you as a fantasy owner, ONLY started Miami Dolphins yesterday, you cleared more than 200 fantasy points — which would have been good to win just about any DFS game or fantasy contest.

What’s real for Miami, and what can we confidently say was a mirage? We’ve seen enough of Tua to Tyreek to know that’s one of the best QB-WR duos in the NFL. When Tua is healthy, he’s a clear QB1 with the upside to be the top fantasy QB, and it’s clear Tyreek is far and away the best WR in the NFL. He’s a cheat code. Even w/o Jaylen Waddle and being covered by all-pro Patrick Surtain, he had his customary nine catches, 157 yards, and a TD, and much of his production was in the first quarter when the game’s outcome was still in doubt.

Raheem Mostert, I will put in the real department. However, like Tua, he’s an injury waiting to happen. But while he’s healthy, he’s a must-start every week player in this offense. He’s got 7 touchdowns through 3 games, and none are the cheap goal-line variety; he’s explosive in Mike McDaniel’s offense.

Devon Archane is the one player I think is for real, but his production is a mirage. He scored 2 of his TDs, and the big 67 yarder, once both teams had cleared their benches, and while he looks dynamic, he will have weeks with sub-5 touches and twenty-something yards. IF Mostert were to miss a week, though, Arcane would be a must-start.

To put Raheem Mostert’s underrated career in perspective — he holds the all-time yards per carry average (min 500 career carries).

Raheem Mostert (5.42)
Bo Jackson (5.4)
Jamaal Charles (5.38)
Nick Chubb (5.26)
Gus Edwards (5.15)

Also, a shout-out to Gus Edwards. Mostert and Edwards are both vying for the most underrated current running backs.

The NFL world was overtaken when the planet’s most famous person was rooting for the fantasy world’s most productive and popular tight end. Fantasy jokes ensued. Travis Kelce jersey sales are up 400%. It’s all fun and good. I will say it’s a good sign of the honeymoon stage of their relationship to see how vocal Swift was in rooting for her “friend”.

Mike Evans is good at catching the football.

Alvin Kamara is back…and he threw down an epic tweet to celebrate.

Miami Dolphins maybe celebrating too much too soon, what do you think?

What else did we learn this weekend?

It’s a long season, so don’t jump to wild conclusions. The Dallas Cowboys will be there when it matters. The Chiefs will be there when it matters. Buffalo has looked stellar since their Monday night week one loss to the Jets. These teams are clearly up there with the best, including Miami, 49ers, and many others.

Don’t jump to conclusions is even true in fantasy. You’re not out of it even if you’re 0–3. Many leagues (including my home league) reserve spots for great teams based on performance every week against all teams or a power ranking. Regardless, you’re still in it, and there are plenty of underperforming players who will get hot and some who are blowing up who will fall flat as we get into the next few weeks.

Let’s talk about the top players across positions to identify who is real (and will continue) and who you should think about moving while they’re still hot.

QB -

Kirk Cousins (75 points / 25 PPG) — This rate isn’t sustainable but the Vikings defense sucks, their run game is mediocre so he may have his apex statistical season where the Vikings are forced to outscore every opponent. Jordan Addison has been as good as advertised, TJ Hockenson provides a strong 3rd option and Justin Jefferson is well, Justin Jefferson. KEEP
Justin Herbert (66 points / 22 PPG) — Similar to the Vikings, Herbert has a strong stable of receivers, a defense that gives us a lot of points and a path to consistently being a top 5 fantasy quarterback. KEEP
Tua Tagovailoa (66 points / 22 PPG) — Tua has been spectacular, he’s demonstrated that when healthy, he’s an elite tactician of the position. He has a great offensive coordinator, arguably the best starting tandem of receivers and if health was not a concern, he would be a strong keep. However there is so much risk with his head injury that I would consider selling high. SELL
Jordan Love (64 points / 21 PPG) — Love has been a pleasant surprise, demonstrating some of the same mannerisms of Aaron Rodgers, and leading a solid offensive effort. If you’re in a dynasty format maybe you hold on to Love to see how he performs when he gets Christian Watson into the fold and gains more confidence. However this is also a good time to potentially upgrade because there are signs that his productivity (which was heavily influenced by a huge week 1) won’t be sustained. SELL
Patrick Mahomes/Jalen Hurts (60 points / 20 PPG) — Both have been solid but not spectacular, if you can trade for them, the upside is still there for them to outperform the rest of the year.

QBs to target who will outperform their current production.

Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith are all guys who have the right talent and situation to be top 10 or greater performers.

RBs -

Raheem Mostert (83 points / 27.6 PPG) — Mentioned above, Mostert’s productivity is sustainable and he could have his career year. However I would sell because his statistical output through 3 games is not realistic for 17, add in the injury history, if you can find a taker to hand over a proven but underperforming back such as Saquon Barkley, it’s a deal you should do. SELL
Christian McCaffrey (71 points / 23.6 PPG) — CMC was one of the top fantasy picks, and nothing we’ve seen through 3 weeks suggest that he won’t be one of the most productive NFL players this year. KEEP
Kenneth Walker III (56 points / 18.6 PPG) — He’s a good back but continues to be a mediocre short-yardage and goalline guy who could, and likely should, lose that work to rookie Zach Charbonnet. If you can upgrade to a higher ceiling-featured back, pull the trigger. SELL
Devon Achane (56 points / 28 PPG) — Achane was awesome this past week but how many games are the Dolpins going to score 70 points? Until Mostert is hurt or Achane earns most of the touches, he’s not a fantasy RB1. SELL
Tony Pollard (51 points / 17 PPG) — Here is a guy I would target to pickup. Dallas hasn’t gotten into an offensive rhythm yet, and when they do Pollard will explode. Even so he’s the 5th most productive running back. KEEP
Kyren Williams (50 points / 16.6 PPG) — I don’t understand the Rams, they’ve overperformed so far this year. What I can say is Williams is a solid, versatile back. He clearly is NOT a special player who demands touches. So if you’re able to trade him for a more talented player in a similar or better situation, take it. I don’t see Williams keeping up this production for the full year, and while he could etch out 10+ TD’s and 1,300 yards, there is as much evidence in Sean McVay’s past that he just as likely be inactive come week 10 this season. SELL

Rb’s to target who will outperform their current production.

Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco, Derrick Henry; further down the list I remain a Khalil Herbert truther. All these guys are talented and will find pockets of success as the season progresses.

WRs

Tyreek Hill (84 points / 28 PPG) — The cheat code has proven he’s productive in any scheme and any quarterback. That said Hill’s highest productivity will be with Tua so there is some downside risk. That said you have to ride this hot hand because it’s a potential league winner. KEEP
Keenan Allen (76 points / 25.5 PPG) — Allen is a potential hall of fame receiver on the tail end of his career, playing with a franchise quarterback. There are definite red flags but like Hill, you’ve got to ride him for the time being — especially with Mike Williams out for the season. KEEP
Justin Jefferson (68 points / 23 PPG) — KEEP
Davante Adams (65 points / 21.5 PPG) — KEEP
Mike Evans (59 points / 19.7 PPG) — Evans is a likely hall of famer who is attempting to have his ninth straight 1k yard season. He’s off to a great start but if you can leverage him to improve at RB or WR, now maybe the time to make a deal. Concerns about Baker Mayfield have been forgotten and people have flipped their opinion. SELL
Deebo Samuel (51 points / 17 PPG) — I love Samuel, he’s a hybrid two way player who the 49’ers have made a point to feed the ball to (12 touches per game) but once Aiyuk is back that will decrease. So if you can get a clear cut WR1 (e.g. Diggs or AJ Brown) in a player for player move, I would do it. SELL
Nathaniel Dell / Puka Nacua (50 points / 16.5 PPG) — I’m lumping these rookies together as they’re becoming featured in their respective teams’ offenses. However they have different circumstances, I have the same recommendation. In dynasty leagues, keep them but in redraft, capitalize on the excitement and productivity to upgrade to a stronger WR1 ceiling fit. SELL

WRs to target who will outperform their current production.

Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin are a few names that will outperform throughout the season versus their first 3 week numbers.

TEs

TJ Hockenson (40 points / 13.5 PPG) — Kelce will overtake him soon, but unless you can trade him straight up, I would keep him as he’s in a strong passing offense. KEEP
Sam Laporta (37 points / 12.3 PPG) — Laporta is off to a great rookie season. He may not keep this up but he has the 2nd most targets of any NFL TE through 3 weeks and looks solid to finish as a top 5 fantasy TE this year. KEEP
Hunter Henry (31 points / 10.3 PPG) — Henry is another keeper IMHO, a versatile receiver who is becoming Mac Jones security blanket. KEEP
Travis Kelce (27 points / 13.5 PPG) — If it wasn’t for Taylor Swift I would have said go out and acquire Kelce before he explodes…now nobody will move him. KEEP
Evan Engram (26 points / 9 PPG) — This is how bad the position has been so far that the #4 guy is below 10 points per game. Engram has a ton of talent but Trevor Lawrence and the Jags have disappointed. You won’t get much for Engram so hold. KEEP

Which Tight Ends should you target? George Kittle will have some weeks, Mark Andrews will pick up once he’s healthy.

NFL Week 3 Fantasy Musings — Top Players to Keep & Sell

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