NFL Week 6 Fantasy Musings: Which Players Will Fade & Outperform in the 2nd half?

I’m starting this week’s musings on the value of a kicker, and ask why a team would EVER spend a draft pick on a kicker. Here’s the case…

I’m starting this week’s musings on the value of a kicker, and ask why a team would EVER spend a draft pick on a kicker. Here’s the case…

NFL Week 6 Fantasy Musings: Which Players Will Fade & Outperform in the 2nd half?

NFL Week 6 Fantasy Musings; Which Players Will Fade & Outperform in 2nd half?
_Episode 44 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast hosted by JayDubb, covers the weekly discussion on fantasy…_share.transistor.fm

I’m starting this week’s musings on the value of a kicker, and ask why a team would EVER spend a draft pick on a kicker. Here’s the case. Since 2003 only 4 kickers were drafted with a 1st or 2nd day selection (1st — 3rd rounds). Mike Nugent (2nd; 2005); Robert Agauyo (2nd; 2016); Nate Kaeding (3rd, 2004) and now Jake Moody (3rd, 2023). Nugent was decent, Kaeding average. During this same period though, the best kickers were the following: Stephen Goskowski (4th round, ‘06), Mason Crosby (6th round, ‘07); Justin Tucker (undrafted ‘12); Matt Prater (undrafted ‘07), and Robbie Gould (undrafted ’05).

My point: The best kickers are either late-round selections or more often undrafted. The best of this era were undrafted. The early picks were either busts or just average. So then why would a smart NFL team select a kicker with an early draft pick in 2023?

Which is a good seque to the fact the 49’ers were bounced from the land of unbeatens. It was a team loss but Moody deserves more credit than most shenking a 54 yard field goal in the first half and then missed a perfect down the middle 41 yard attempt as time expired. Losses happen but sucks when a team over drafts a kicker and said kicker is the direct reason for this loss.

So no more undefeated teams, every teams fan has at least one blemish, and every talking head can give a data point to convince you of anything they want. So where does that leave me?

The NFL has become awash in parity.

Fun Tidbits from Week 6 of the NFL Season?

What are the other storylines from week 6 of the NFL season?

  • The Miami Dolphins are the best fantasy story of the year. They have 2 RB1’s, the Cheetah, and even “The Waddle” is productive when healthy. Insanity…let’s start with Raheem Mostert who has scored 11 TD’s, which is 4th best ever through 6 weeks.

  • Players are being denied team equity? Apparently the NFL is saying NO on this topic, even though Aaron Rodgers asked for it and there is a report that Caleb Williams won’t declare for the NFL draft if he’s not provided equity by the team drafting #1 overall. Seems like collusion…not shocking among this billionaire class.

What players are poised to continue to perform or breakout?

  • QB Trevor Lawrence (#15, 83 Points) — This is a bold projection based on Lawrence’s talent and his surrounding cast. His schedule also lightens up in the 2nd half but beware he is hurt and may miss week 6.
  • QB Gardner Minishew (#33, 35 Points) — For a long shot, Minshew is a gunslinger who will have a great balanced offense. He won’t be a QB1 but in super flex, he’s a solid QB2 starter for the remainder of the year.
  • RB Raheem Mostert (#2, 135 Points) — he’s a perfect fit for this Miami offense, and it’s his alone for at least the next 3 games. Barring injury, a real concern with Mostert, he’s primed to have his career season. Ride him while you can.
  • RB Travis Ettienne (#4, 109 Points) — I loved him in college, thought he maybe too small for full time work last year but he’s bulked up and is a versatile, featured guy. In this Jacksonville offense, he’s primed to continue to be a RB1.
  • RB Isiah Pacheco (#12, 82 Points) — The Chiefs are increasingly relying on Pacheco as their primary back and throwing to him a bit. After a slow start, Pacheco has had productive weeks, and once KC gets on a roll, Pacheco could surprise as a RB1 down the stretch.
  • WR Adam Thielen (#7, 102 Points) — I’m on the Thielen bandwagon. He’s playing a ton from the slot and having a big resurgence. Will it continue, I think it will but at 33 the decline could come into play. I’m in for the rest of the year though.
  • WR CeeDee Lamb (#13, 74 Points) — Lamb is talented and the Cowboys are figuring out new ways to get him the ball. Over the course of the 2nd half of the year expect Lamb to put up top 10 numbers.
  • WR Cooper Kupp (#35, 40 Points) — Kupp is Stafford’s security blanket, he’ll be a top 5 producer so long as he’s healthy from here on out.
  • TE Evan Engram (#8, 48 Points) — This is more a play on Trevor Lawrence than just Engram. But the talent is there, he’s one of Lawrence’s security blankets, as the Jags start to roll, Engram will benefit.

What players are poised to underperform the rest of the season?

  • QB Kirk Cousins (#4, 111 Points) — Cousins got out of the gate strong but a litany of injuries, specifically losing Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings need to get more balanced to grind out wins, will result in Cousins being more of a QB2 the 2nd half of the year.
  • RB Zack Moss (#6, 100 points) — This one is obvious but still want to call out b/c he’s been special so far, and continued to be fantasy starter relevant in Jonathan Taylor’s 2 weeks back.
  • RB Derrick Henry (#11, 83 Points) — Henry is still good but he’s no longer elite, and this team may start to give more touches to rookie Tajae Spears. If Henry is dealt to an elite running team such as Baltimore then remove him from this list but sans a new outlook, you can expect his production to wane as the Titans prepare for life after King Henry.
  • WR Puka Nacua (#8, 99 Points) — Nacua isn’t a drop but let’s be frank, Kupp is the featured, heavily targeted option in this offense and Nacua is at best a secondary option. He’s still worth a flex start but he’s not the every week starter in the 2nd half.
  • WR D.J. Moore (#3, 110 Points) — I’ve always rooted for Moore and I hope I’m wrong but it’s a bit flukey how he’s the third best fantasy receiver, and the reality is he’ll likely disappoint most weeks. I’m predicting he’ll be a sub top 20 fantasy performer in the 2nd half.
  • TE Sam LaPorta (#2, 70 Points) — Love the player, he’s going to be a great fantasy tight end in 2024 and beyond, but eventually defenses and the marathon of the NFL season will catch up to the rookie. If you’re in a seasonal (redraft) league, look to parlay him into Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews who are money in the bank.