Nick Chubb gives Browns great RB corp

The Cleveland Browns used the thirty-fifth pick in the 2018 NFL draft on Georgia running back Nick Chubb. My prediction is in two years…

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Nick Chubb gives Browns great RB corp

Chubb is an excellent grinder but with game breaking speed and acceleration.

The Cleveland Browns used the thirty-fifth pick in the 2018 NFL draft on Georgia running back Nick Chubb. My prediction is in two years we’ll realize this was a perfect landing spot but right now it’s suspect. Carlos Hyde has talent and was given enough $$ that he’ll be in the mix. Duke Johnson is locked into the 3rd down/slot role player, coupled with slot master addition Jarvis Landry in the fold. For a Cleveland Browns team that has been a perennial bottom 5 offense the past 2 decades and there’s not a ton of confidence. The Browns have added a ton of talent this offseason (Hyde + Landry + Chubb) though so a regression towards the mean is in order. And Chubb isn’t just a good prospect, he’s a great one. He had spectacular success at Georgia, in the SEC, has a very good athletic profile and he looks the part on the film. This is arguably the most talented running back in this draft. On par with Barkley as a runner, with some development around pass pro & receiving technique, he has the potential to be the top player from this class. Near-term, this is a dynasty pick for ’19 or beyond though.

RB Nick Chubb

• Size: 5’10 / 227
• Draft Selection: #35 (2018)
• Depth Chart: RB2 (competing w/ Carlos Hyde for 1st/2nd down work)
• ’18 Outlook: RB4 (RB3 max w/ Hyde injuries or Browns offense shocks the world)
• Analytics Profile: Very Good (thx2 PlayerProfiler.com)
• Instagram
• NFL Comparison: Ray Rice

Outlook: Chubb & Barkley are the most talented runners in the 2018 NFL draft. On par with Barkley as a runner, he’s shown to be a great early-down runner. If he can develop his potential with his pass protection and hands, he can be an explosive, featured bell cow type of runner. Chubb is in a timeshare scenario that barring injury (to Hyde) means he won’t have enough opportunity to be fantasy relevant. If Cleveland miraculously evolves into a New England offensive productivity in ’18, Chubb would be at best an RB3 (sans injuries to Hyde), more than likely he’s a dynasty stash in deep leagues or waiver wire fodder with possible value in the 2nd half of ’18 and 2019 season.

Opportunity: Cleveland in recent years has divided the early down work (Isiah Crowell) and passing down snaps (Duke Johnson). With a 1–31 record the past two seasons, the team has passed on 60%+ of its offensive snaps, leaving far fewer carries (370/year) than the league average. With Duke Johnson signing an extension, his role is filled. That leaves the talented free agent addition, Carlos Hyde, and rookie Chubb battling for the early down role. If we assume the Browns run more effectively and frequently in ’18, that would still probably only amount to 400 carries. Let’s assume 80 of those go to Duke Johnson (out of passing down scenarios). That leaves 320 carries to be shared between Hyde and Chubb. It’s conceivable they will each receive 50% of those. That results in 160 carries each. Throw in 20ish targets for both and we’re at approx. 11 touches a week. This projects to be an RB4 with RB3/Flex opportunity.

Long-term: Chubb is the most talented pure runner in this draft. A strong north-south runner, he reminds me of a bigger, faster, more explosive Ray Rice. He needs to learn to not bounce/dance in the hole but it’s a nitpick. Near-term, this is a dynasty pick for ’19 or beyond though. So if you have a deep, long-term outlook, Chubb is your choice. If you’re in a redraft league, don’t waste your time. Even if injuries beset the Browns backfield or the unlikely occurs, they take a massive leap forward as an offense, you’ll still be able to pick Chubb (and Hyde) off the waiver wire.