Patriots Preparing for Life after Brady?

The New England Patriots selected dual-threat running back Sony Michel with the 31st pick in the 2018 NFL draft. While the Pats have a…

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Patriots Preparing for Life after Brady?

Michel is a complete player who could change how Patriots utilize their RB’s.

The New England Patriots selected dual-threat running back Sony Michel with the 31st pick in the 2018 NFL draft. While the Pats have a history rotating backs based on situation & skillset (short yardage, 3rd down, slot), Belicheck & McDaniels (OC) have at times utilized more of a featured back approach to great success. Dion Lewis in the 2nd half of ’17 and Corey Dillon in the 00’s are examples of this. Michel; a good receiver, strong pass protection skillset, explosive and powerful in short yardage; landed in a great spot, a top 5 offense, looking to replace 200+ touches (vacated by Dion Lewis).

RB Sony Michel

• Size: 5’11” / 214
• Draft Selection: #31 (2018)
• Depth Chart: RB1A (competing w/ Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee, and James White (for passing down work)
• ’18 Outlook: RB3 (RB1 if he gets passing down snaps + early down work)
• Athletic Profile: Good (Player Profiler)
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/flyguy2stackz/
• NFL Comparison: Freeman McNeil

Outlook: The perennial super bowl favorites added a premium Swiss army knife to their arsenal. Michel brings pro-style offensive experience, being able to line up in the slot, run inside and out. His athletic profile is good, he has prototype size and looks dynamic on tape. His college production was limited, as a result of competing for touches with NFL talents Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb and injuries. His numbers were outstanding though in ’17 & ’15. The one potential issue is a high fumble rate. Lost fumbles in New England will put you on the bench, relegated to special teams or worse, not part of the weekly active roster. Michel is not Alvin Kamara, he’s not as quick & shifty. But he doesn’t need to be Kamara, he needs to be 2017 Sony Michel. That person has NFL starting level ability in all phases (pass pro, slot receiver, inside power and outside the zone).

Opportunity: The New England Patriots are in win now mode, they want to win while they still have a late peak, Brady. They can’t worry about tomorrow, they still have a golden chance to win now. Michel is in a great spot walking into 200 touches (10 CPG & 50+ Targets) in a high octane, high td variance situation. I like Rex Burkhead, James White is an adequate passing down back and Mike Gillislee is still in the mix too. So long as three of these four — Belicheck/McDaniels/Brady/Gronk — are active on game day, the Pats will be an explosive offense. For Michel, assuming he doesn’t get fumle-itis, he will be a top 25 fantasy back with potential to finish top 10.

Long-term: Michel has the talent to churn out productive NFL seasons, particularly in a top 5 offense. The question marks are the fumbling and health. Tom Brady’s eventual retirement is another but we’ll kick that can down the road for now. Even a Brady injury wouldn’t be catastrophic for short stints with Brian Hoyer at the helm and Pats infrastructure. Michel though doesn’t look like an elite back. In New England with a strong game plan and good talent, Michel can be a perennial mid RB1 producer. I’m dubious at anointing Michel given Bill Belicheck’s penchant for rotating his backs. Yet the draft capital (1st round), tape, college production and testing are strong enough indicators that Michel could be more the exception than the rule in New England.