Pod #11 Fantasy Football Busts & Breakouts thru 2 Weeks

What a start to the NFL season…66% increase in holding penalties, I love it. NOT! Scoring is up and there’s some awesome finishes but…

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Pod #11 Fantasy Football Busts & Breakouts thru 2 Weeks

What a start to the NFL season…66% increase in holding penalties, I love it. NOT! Scoring is up and there’s some awesome finishes but these games have been choppy. It’s easy to overreact too…so I’ll indulge in that a bit on the flip side.

Highlight — the return of NFL Primetime on ESPN. TJ & Berman. I grew up on this banter. Pre internet this was how we all got the early box score details with a plethora of lol one liners from Berman. The fact this show is back is a major win and highlight of week 2. Going going going going….Berman is the best and a national treasure IMHO.

This show is going to highlight breakouts and busts so far to the ’19 season. These are calls I’m making after just two weeks but in the context of training camp and past season production.

I’m going to start with Busts.

Busts:

Injuries are painful and unfair to label a guy a bust due to the unfortunate nature of how brutal the NFL is. But I want to call out Big Ben. He looked washed up over the first 5 quarters of the season, so maybe the elbow season ending injury maybe a blessing for his legacy. Maybe this elbow injury actually started in training camp effecting the start…if not though the fact he called himself out so quickly is uncharacteristic of Big Ben. Does this mean it’s the end? Probably depends on how Mason Rudolph plays the rest of this season. If he shows promise and/or plays well, then Steelers would be wise to move on — and Big Ben may just retire — or play out another season or two in Cincinnati to unceremoniously finish out his career.

Cam Newton- dudes foot must be worse than the team is letting on. Newton looks immobile, his footing is off and it’s leading to terrible touch in the passing game. He’s only 31 and reports from camp were very positive…so maybe he’s not done but no established, former MVP QB in his prime has looked this poorly to start a season in recent memory. If not for Cam, Aaron Rodgers would be here too…a guy everybody expects to be a top 4 fantasy guy. He seems more hellbent on calling out his coach and being a malcontent than he is in just playing football.

Kirk Cousins & Phillip Rivers — these aren’t on the same level as Newton and I lump them together. Chargers & Vikings have great rosters, defenses and tons and tons of skill position talent. But the truth in watching these guys to start the season is they are both just average gun slingers who will make plays b/c they take chances but they will also throw bone head picks in key situations. Rivers threw away week 2 with a terrible, throw it up in the end zone to a double teamed Keanen Allen while in FG range for a game ending pick. Cousins similarly threw away the game with a bad pick in the corner of the end zone. Both teams are 1–1 and both may lead playoff teams this year but both are liabilities when it matters and neither will lead their respective team to a super bowl, be an NFL MVP or dominant a fantasy lineup for more than fits & spurts. Drop them both in small leagues and take chances on guys with upside long term.

Is it an end of an era — QB draft class of 2004. Big Ben is out. Eli is benched and maybe he plays again but this could be the end. Phillip Rivers is still dealing but….

LeVeon Bell — I am a fan and this isn’t in terms of talent but team and system dependency are crucial. Bell is simply in a dumpster fire situation and his productivity will suffer.

The Jets & Dolphins — sell sell sell sell. These teams felt good about their future heading into the year. Neither likely expected to be a playoff squad (particularly the Dolphins) but both appear to be dumpster fire offenses. The Dolphins look like they’ll be an all-time tank team. The Jets will remain faux relevant for a bit longer but don’t be fooled. This is a mess.

Jaguars, Steelers & Bearsare busts so far. But I’m not ready to advocate selling just yet. These teams have talent, they are going to fight and if they get into a rhythm they can/will jump up into the top 15 in offense (from today being the #29 and #31 teams respectively for Steelers & Bears; and possibly top 20 for the Jags — though I wouldn’t count on it given their potential to tank for a franchise QB selection.

Breakouts:

Dak Prescott & Lamar Jackson- do we need to say anything about these guys? Jackson we knew was going to be a great runner playing QB but nobody could have predicted this. Except this is what he was in college, this is what made me a HUGE believer her coming into last season. Can he sustain it with a slight build? That’s the question but ride him hard until then b/c this is Michael Vick meets Randal Cunningham 2.0. Explosive runner with decent touch and velocity.

Dak is harder to understand. A good but not great college QB who went in the 4th round. He’s looked like a decent game manager up until this year. Insert the Boise State Maestro as offensive coordinator and Dak ascends to elite production status. If this keeps up I predict the “clapper” (Jason Garrett) will be canned in the offseason to keep Kellen Moore from taking a head coaching job in another city. B/c it’s clear Garrett was holding the Cowboys back offensively — and that was supposedly his strength. From a fantasy perspective, I’m not ready to buy all in but it’s hard to deny the production and efficiency.

Austin Ekeler- the guy is a change of pace 3rd down back? Maybe a decade ago but in this chargers system he’s been an upgrade over Melvin Gordon. He was more efficient and better last year when Gordon missed time and he’s been electric AND the only reason the Chargers offense has stayed in games this year. He’s 2nd in the NFL in scrimmage yards and he’s trucking dudes in the open field. A pure beast so far. If he can stay healthy and Gordon stays away, this is a top 4 fantasy RB this year folks.

Dalvin Cook- The leader in scrimmage yards so far, Cook’s talent is undeniable. He’s injury prone though and with Alexander Mattison looking good as a rookie, the touches maybe evened out later in the year but so far he’s living up to expectations!

John Ross — will he sustain it? The college all American and combine star looked like a bust until…week 1 of the 2019 season. Can he stay healthy and sustain it?

Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf & Deebo Samuel — these guys look like #1 WR’s in their respective teams if not now, then very soon. I didn’t love Hollywood Brown but he’s locked in with Lamar Jackson as the big play guy. Metcalf & Samuel haven’t put up the huge numbers of Brown but Seattle & San Francisco respectively have shown they’re excited about their new weapons and they are difference makers. If both aren’t the go to guys asap, their respective coaches need to be questioned b/c there is nothing in front of them to justify holding back a rookie for rookie sake. There’s a good chance all three of these guys are WR2’s or better in the 2nd half of this year.

Terry McLaurin- I purposely am not looping him into the above group because I don’t know if he’s a featured type talent long term. That said he’s the Redskins #1 guy and they are going to be playing from behind most weeks. So unlike the above guys, McLaurin is a must start right now in all leagues and likely will be the best rookie fantasy receiver if he can stay healthy just on the sheer volume of targets he will receive.

Mark Andrews- this guy was on many sleeper lists. Through 2 weeks he’s on pace for 16 TD’s and 1600 yards. No he won’t keep that pace but this maybe the next Travis Kelce type who gets used in a variety of slot receiver oriented plays. I like him as a TE1 for the remainder of the season.

Other comments:

Suicide Pool- a former colleague started a $150 a year entry fee suicide pool. It’s now up to 1k entries, $100k pool for the winner and some consolation prizes. It’s a double elimination format. Fun stuff. I meant to plug it on a pod prior to the season opener but forgot. So I will build interest this year by calling out my “lock of the week” for those of you in suicide pools. Let’s see how I do.

Lock of the week- Seattle will win at homevs. the New Orleans Saints. If you want safer picks, take Dallas at home vs. Miami or New England hosting NY Jets. But for some drama, take the Seahawks to win in a tough fought, ground and pound matchup at Century Link.