Starting Quarterbacks Are Early Picks

Where should fantasy leaguers look for future NFL starting QB successes?

The NFL has become a league that finds it’s starting quarterbacks early in its annual draft. Twenty-three (23) teams current or near-term projected starters were selected in the first (1st) round of…

Starting Quarterbacks Are Early Picks

Where should fantasy leaguers look for future NFL starting success? The NFL has become a league that finds it’s starting quarterbacks early in its annual draft. Twenty-three (23) teams current or near-term projected starters were selected in the first (1st) round of the NFL draft. Another four (4) were selected in the second (2nd) round of the draft, three of which with one of the top selections in that round. Outside of the Tom Brady anomaly, aka “steal of the century” as a 6th rounder, there isn’t a single established, consistent pro-bowl level starter in the NFL over the past decade who was selected past the 3rd round. This means the highest probability of long-term success at the QB position is in the top half of the draft, or more specifically the top forty selections.

The FootballGuys, a great in-depth fantasy football site, published a research article (paid subscription required but well worth it) on this two years ago, looking at quarterback success by round selected from 1994 to 2016. This encompassed the “free agency” era and the evolution of offensive philosophies. Adding an additional lens of recent history (counting any player who started for more than 1 full season as a “hit”), the probability of success of players selected by round are starker.

1st Round: 60% of first round selections go on to be competent multi-year starters. They do not all end up as stars.
2nd Round: 36%
3rd Round: 18%
4th Round: 14%
5th Round: 0%
6th Round: 10%
7th Round: 6%

The reasons for this success breakdown vary, and there is a strong case to be made that its self fullfilling. Teams operate under a salary cap, the QB position is the most valuable (and expensive) in the league, thus spending its most valuable draft assests (1st and 2nd round picks) on a quarterback is a practical decision. Then once a team spends a high draft selection on a QB, they are more inclined to give that player many opportunities to be successful. Thus the probability of success for high draft choices should be much higher. What is interesting though is to see how few players outside of those early rounds have found success over approximately the past quarter century.

The summation is any player selected after the second round, and particularly outside the top forty selections have a very low probability of ever ascending to a regular starting role. The “hits” in the 3rd round and beyond more often than not appear as anomalies than a pattern of success. For those of you in Superflex (2 QB) leagues, that must evaluate the sports most important position for the next generation of starters, should be investing their time and resources (cap space and/or draft picks) on the top selections in the NFL draft.

Data

By the Numbers (current)

1st Round: 23

2nd Round: 4

3rd Round: 1

4th Round: 2

6th Round: 1

UDFA: 1

Historical (1994–2017)

**1st Round:**60% Success Rate — Too many to list; 34 “Hits” out of 57 1st round selections.
**2nd Round:**36% Success Rate — Drew Brees, Collin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Jake Plummer, Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch and Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s approximately 9 “hits” out of 25 2nd round selections).
3rd Round: 18% Success Rate — Brian Griese, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Matt Schaub & Josh McCown. That’s 5 “hits” out of 28 selections.
4th Round: 14% Success Rate — Aaron Brooks, Dak Prescott, David Garrard, Kirk Cousins and Kyle Orton. That’s 5 “hits” out of 34 selections.
5th Round: 0% Success Rate — There are still some “hopes” here with AJ McCarron and Brett Hundley but neither of their prospects is likely.
6th Round: 10% Success Rate — Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, Tyrod Taylor and Derek Anderson. That’s 5 “hits” out of 48 selections.
7th Round: 6% Success Rate — Gus Frerotte, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick. That’s 3 “hits” out of 48 selections.

By Team Current

Buffalo Bills — 1st Round — AJ McCarron (5th Round) — Josh Allen (1st)
Miami Dolphins — 1st Round — Ryan Tannehill (1st)
New England Patriots — 6th Round — Tom Brady (6th)
New York Jets — 1st Round — Josh McCown (3rd) — Teddy Bridgewater (1st) / Sam Darnold (1st)
Baltimore Ravens — 1st Round — Joe Flacco (1st) / Lamar Jackson (1st)
Cleveland Browns — 1st Round — Tyrod Taylor (6th) / Baker Mayfield (1st)
Cincinnati Bengals — 2nd Round — Andy Dalton (2nd)
Pittsburgh Steelers — 1st Round — Ben Roethlisberger (1st)
Houston Texans — 1st Round — Deshaun Watson (1st)
Indianapolis Colts — 1st Round — Andrew Luck (1st)
Tennessee Titans — 1st Round — Marcus Mariota (1st)
Jacksonville Jaguars — 1st Round — Blake Bortles (1st)
Denver Broncos — UDFA — Case Keenum (udfa)
Kansas City Chiefs — 1st Round — Patrick Mahomes (1st)
Los Angeles Chargers — 1st Round — Phillip Rivers (1st)
Oakland Raiders — 2nd Round — Derek Carr (2nd)
Dallas Cowboys — 4th Round — Dak Prescott (4th)
New York Giants — 1st Round — Eli Manning (1st)
Philadelphia Eagles — 1st Round — Carson Wentz (1st)
Washington Redskins — 1st Round — Alex Smith (1st)
Chicago Bears — 1st Round — Mitchell Trubisky (1st)
Detroit Lions — 1st Round — Matthew Stafford (1st)
Green Bay Packers — 1st Round — Aaron Rodgers (1st)
Minnesota Vikings — 4th Round — Kirk Cousins (4th)
Atlanta Falcons — 1st Round — Matt Ryan (1st)
Carolina Panthers — 1st Round — Cam Newton (1st)
New Orleans Saints — 2nd Round — Drew Brees (2nd)
Tampa Bay Bucs — 1st Round — Jameis Winston (1st)
Arizona Cardinals — 1st Round — Sam Bradford (1st) / Josh Rosen (1st)
Los Angeles Rams — 1st Round — Jared Goff (1st)
San Francisco 49’ers — 2nd Round — Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd)
Seattle Seahawks — 3rd Round — Russell Wilson (3rd)