Top 2011 Fantasy Football Rookie

For fantasy leaguers the 2011 crop of skill position talent is deep, it lacks the immediate star power due to a lack of wide open starting…

Top 2011 Fantasy Football Rookie

For fantasy leaguers the 2011 crop of skill position talent is deep, it lacks the immediate star power due to a lack of wide open starting roles but that’s as much a result of the NFL moving towards a committee situation at running back and a plethora of three & four wide receiver sets that distribute production among a greater number of players on each team. Yet don’t be fooled, this year’s RB class is strong and very deep, more so than the quarterback class that was overdrafted, in my opinion, due to a lack of personnel movement from the lockout. That said both the QB and WR classes are above average, and in two years we’ll look back at this overall crop of players and rate them towards the top of production against other classes, just don’t expect immediate production, and if you’re not in a keeper league, its slim pickings to start the season.

The below rankings are for a dynasty specific fantasy league format. If you’re in a seasonal, redraft format, you’ll want to increase the value of guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green and the 2nd round selected RB’s who will all see a lot of playing time early and drop quarterbacks who likely will be sitting / learning for a portion of the 2011 season. Remember NFL teams don’t select players in the 2nd roundwith the thought of having them sit on the bench or exclusively contribute on special teams, those selections are expected to play a primary role and fantasy leaguers shouldn’t lose sight of that. Once the 3rd and certainly 4th round come around, those are where/when teams start to take gambles on players.

Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings for 2011

South Whore Jibbers — RB Mark Ingram (NO, #28 overall; PAFFL Price: $55) — Very talented, complete back is the surest thing for fantasy leaguers over the nex three to four years. He is entering a crowded backfield and may not be the most productive fantasy rookie in ’11 but he will be one of the most productive over the next three years and has the potential to be a fantasy star. Let’s sort it out the situation, HC Sean Payton has said that he sees Reggie Bush as more of a weapon on special teams and sets, not as a regular, so his value probably won’t be hit too hard (RB4ish) assuming he’s kept, then Pierre Thomas is coming off an injury plagued season. He’ll keep his third down and change of pace role in ’11. After those two the team has undrafted rookie Chris Ivory, but Ingram is more talented than all these guys, so expect him to get plenty of touches in a prolific offense. I see Ingram as a RB2 and Thomas a RB2 but in limited games played in ’11 but with Ingram ascending to a clear RB1 in ’12 (if not sooner). Jibbers take Ingram b/c he’s the safest (and best IMO) player on the board, plus they’ll have plenty of QB options at #5.
Strongfighters — RB Ryan Williams (ARI, #38 overall; PAFFL Price: $55) — He’ll battle incumbents Chris “Beanie” Wells and Tim Hightower for the starting role but Arizona didn’t spend a high 2nd round selection on a change of pace back. Wells has been injury prone and lacks an exposive gear, Hightower fumbles too much and lacks explosiveness. In an offense that will rely heavily on controlling the ball due to a mediocre quarterback play, expect Williams to get a minimum of 200 touches but potentially many more, making him a (RB2) with upside. Wells value takes a big hit but he’s still got a shot to be fantasy relevant (RB3) while Tim Hightower is now a special teams player. Strongfighters select Williams here b/c they don’t need Newton and don’t like the likely RB options at #7.
Fightin’ Irie — RB Daniel Thomas (MIA, #62; PAFFL Price: $55) — The Kansas State product is an underrated runner who reminds scouts of Steven Jackson due their size/speed ratio, running styles, and their college performances. Thomas has been incredibly productive the past two years and brings a well rounded game (good running between tackles & counters; good receiver out of the backfield) to Miami. With both Miami’s top two backs unsigned, unrestricted free agents (and both getting up in age), Thomas steps into Miami as the defacto starter and a favorite for NFL offensive rookie of the year. He doesn’t have the elite running ability of Williams or Ingram, but his situation couldn’t be better (RB2+) and reminds me of Matt Forte in ’08 who went at around the same spot to a similar situation after a productive but relatively quiet college career. Irie takes Thomas b/c he’s an immediate contributor who has nearly as much upside as anybody else and fills their biggest need.
BeaverCats — QB Cam Newton (CAR, #1; PAFFL price: $55) — Newton has the highest fantasy (and real) ceiling in this draft, hence the first overall selection. However he’s the definition of a boom or bust type pick, not only is his personally raw but he’s going to a team that lacks receiving talent, and thusin redraft leagues he’s much further down this list, but for dynasty type leagues he goes this high b/c of his total package (running & throwing) and upside are too high. In ’11 he’s a QB3 but has the potential to develop into a “next gen” type quarterback and a QB1. BeaverCats take Newton b/c they’ve always loved athletic, high upside, once in a generation type talents at QB and its a need.
South Whore Jibbers — QB Christian Ponder (MIN, #12; PAFFL Price: $55) — Minnesota is desperate for a QB, they have a super bowl caliber team lacking the most important position on the field. Ponder has consistently been a productive college player and graded out very well, the Vikings selecting him at #12 speaks volume about their belief in him. Plus he was a four year starter at Florida State, was a highly recruited prep who showed growth and has most of the attributes you look for in a pro starter (athletic, accurate, leader). Ponder has as good a shot as any of these rookie quarterbacks to be fantasy relevant (QB2) thanks to a solid offensive line, one of the best RB’s in the game and an emerging receiving core. Jibbers take Ponder b/c he’s the most NFL ready and in a good situation immediately, and it fills a need.
Isotopes — QB Blaine Gabbert (JAX, #10; PAFFL Price: $50) — Gabbert has proto type size, strong arm strength, great mobility (ran a 4.6 40) and shows NFL reads, release and footwork. That said he has a lot to work on coming from a spread Missouri offense that didn’t require pro style sets or reads; and with only two years of relatively decent numbers at the college level. Landing in Jacksonville he has the perfect opportunity to learn behind David Garrard for a year, which means in redraft/seasonal leagues, you should drop him all together, but for those in keeper leagues, he has a great shot to be the Jacksonville starting QB in ’12 (QB2). Isotopes take Gabbert b/c they are deep at RB and like his upside to develop into a high quality NFL starter. This will also start the trend of topped players.
Strongfighters — RB Mikel LeShoure (DET, #57; PAFFL Price: $40) — He’s not a well known commodity but he put up huge numbers in the Big Ten, is a bellcow type guy (big, fast) with great fundamentals (never fumbled in college, has pro style offensive system experience) entering a team desperate for a featured type of back to complement the explosive Jahvid Best. This selection hurts Best’s value (he’s now more of a borderline RB3) while it limits LeShoure’s upside but he still is a good bet to be the more productive fantasy back in Detroit (RB3) in ’11 with upside to develop into a RB1 if Best gets hurt. Strongfighters take LeShoure here b/c they have big needs at RB and he’s the most talented guy left on the board. In fact if LeShoure had been taken by a team like Washington, he’s be a top 3 pick.
IMT — QB Colin Kaepernick (SF, #36; PAFFL Price: $40) — If you believe in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching ability, then Kaepernick could end up being the best fantasy player of this draft, but it will take several years so for re-draft leagues he’s worthless. Don’t believe the hype that the 49’ers will play him in ’11, its clear that Harbaugh wants to redshirt him while he changes the team culture and coaches him up. The 49’ers will resign veteran Alex Smith and possibly another player to compete for the starting ’11 role, with hope Kaepernick can develop for ’12 — so only dynasty leaguers should be looking at him. IMT will take Kaepernick b/c of his local roots (49’er fans) and hope he develops into something special.
Strongfighters — QB Andy Dalton (CIN, #35; PAFFL Price: $45) — The Bengals are ready to move on from Carson Palmer, thus Dalton maybe the first rookie QB to start week one. Expect them to rely more on their running game while taking shots at rookie AJ Green, and safe quick outs to Jerome Simpson, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley to control the ball (QB2). The Strongs pick Dalton b/c they’ve loaded up on RB’s already and could use an immediate starter at QB to hedge against Tim Tebow not starting in ’11 and/or missing out on the top available free agent QB’s the next day in the auction. In many ways this would be an ideal scenario for them as Dalton is easily the most NFL ready starter at QB in this draft, going to a team counting on him to be the man.
Pomona — RB Roy Helu Jr. (WAS, #104; PAFFL Price: $30) — Helu Jr. is very talented and one of the most productive backs in college football. According to Football Outsiders Speed Score, Helu is a top talent,this 4th rounder was selected by Mike Shannahan who has made a career of selecting backs between the 4th & 6th rounds and turning them into fantasy stars. With brittle Ryan Torain his primary competitor for touches, he could be the fantasy rookie of the year (RB3). If this was 2005, Helu would be a top 5 player on this list, so don’t sleep on him. Pomona takes him b/c they are stacked at QB and need immediate production from the RB position. Helu has big time upside too.
Short Bus — QB Jake Locker (TEN, #8; PAFFL Price: $35) — Locker likely won’t start in ’11, if he does downgrade Titans pass receivers and push Chris Johnson slightly down as defenses will load up the box; however expect a veteran to start (QB3) while Locker (QB reserve+) develops from the bench. Thus dynasty leaguers are the only ones who should be interested in him, he’s a great athlete with tremendous work ethic. Short Bus takes Locker b/c at this point on the board he has tremendous upside and needs another QB to develop.
Short Bus — RB Shane Vereen (NE, #56; PAFFL Price: $25) — In New England he likely won’t be a true featured back but he has as the best chance as anybody to be a fantasy relevant performer who gets 200+ touches. He was an underrated performer at CAL who will surprise in the NFL. He’ll enter training camp as the third down & change of pace guy (think modern day Kevin Faulk) with potential to be the main guy if he plays well (RB4+). Short Bus takes Vereen for the same reason as Locker, highest near term & long term value to leverage in a spot starter role in ’11 with hopes he develops into Tom Brady’s security blanket for ‘12.
BeaverCats — RB Delone Carter (IND, #119; PAFFL Price: $23) — Carter isn’t spectacular but he’s heady and consistent, and with a great offense like the Colts, whoever earns playing time, can become fantasy relevant quickly. The competition ahead of him isn’t special (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown) and the team brass likes him. If he gets regular playing time as a short yardage / goalline runner, he’ll have fantasy relevance (RB4+), though he could just as easily end up with Donald Brown stats (’09 1st rounder) too. BeaverCats take Carter with belief he gets the change of pace role and filling a need for a spot starter.
East Bay Funk — RB DeMarco Murray (DAL, #71; PAFFL Price: $20) — Another early 3rd round selection who will get a shot to carry the load in Dallas and likely spells the end of Marion Barber’s time in Big D. Murray is a longshot for fantasy starting ability in ’11 but T Choice and F. Jones are coming up on contract years and neither has proven they’re capable of being the “man” yet so Murray could end up with the job (RB4+). East Bay Funk decides betweren Murray & Hunter but goes Murray due to the more dynamic offense and upside.
BeaverCats — RB Kendall Hunter (SF, #115; PAFFL Price: $18) — With Hunter SF added a sparkplug small back who plays like power guy. He’s strong in between the tackles, has very good receiving skills and has shown the ability to block. Hunter’s fantasy value is unclear, if he shows well at camp, outplays Anthony Dixon (last year’s find) and Gore misses anytime, he could be an immediate value but in an offense that will be mediocre at best in ’11, Hunter is a fantasy reserve with upside in ’12 or ’13 as their offense develops and Gore ages (RB reserve+). BeaverCats select Hunter b/c they don’t believe in taking a WR with a rookie pick, even if they are essentially sure things, and they are too big of a 49’er fan to pass Hunter at this point.
Naughty Thoughts — WR AJ Green (CIN, #4; PAFFL Price: $24) — Green is one of the most polished receivers to enter the NFL in the past few years. He comes from a pro style offense, played in the tough SEC where he was double teamed on every play and he was very productive, week in and out. Green is ready to be featured and will be right off the gate, joining a team in need of a chain moving, red zone dominanting target, so he has a great shot at being a difference maker for fantasy leaguers in ’11 (WR3+). Naughty takes him b/c they need a difference maker at WR and he’s the most valuable asset on the board.

Others:

QB Ryan Mallett (NE, #74) — Mallett has elite throwing talent and excelled in pro style offenses at Michigan & Arkansas, if not for off the field concerns (reportedly he smoked marijuana), he would have been a first round selection. He doesn’t have great athletic ability (5.1 40 time), but in New England he’ll be able to sit and learn behind Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer, with at least a year to learn before he ascends to even the primary backup role.
TE Kyle Rudolph (MIN, #43) — Rudolph is the new generation type of big pass catching tight end with skills. He’s more Jason Witten than Aaron Hernandez which means he’ll earn more playing time immediately and take over for Vincente Schancoe in ’12.
RB Stevan Ridley (NE, #73) — Ridley is a short yardage type specialist, a plunger who the Pats will likely insert to get tough yards and grind out the clock. With Belicheck’s ability to out scheme other coaches, expect to see him used in create ways but likely not enough to be fantasy relevant.
RB Taiwan Jones (OAK, #125) — Jones is a speedster, the guy tore up division 2 college football and has all the measurables to succeed at the NFL level (4.3 speed / good hands). This selection could mean the team is ready to move on from unsigned backup Michael Bush and insert Jones as Darren McFadden’s primary backup, if that happens then he’s an intriguing deep sleeper (RB reserve+) as a change of pace type of back.
RB Jamie Harper (TEN, #130) — I haven’t seen much film on Harper but the Titans liked him enough to use a fourth rounder on him and plan to run the ball at least 450 times this year, assume Chris Johnson gets 350 of those, that leaves a hundred carries (or more) to be given to Harper or incumbent backup Javon Ringer. If Harper can seize the backup role, he will have fantasy value as a spot starter in a strong run offense (RB reserve+).
RB Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL, #145) — Rodgers dropped b/c of a poor 40 time (4.59) for a small back but what scouts failed to focus on is his quickness and toughness. He’ll compete to be the primary backup and versatile back behind Michael Turner. And don’t let his size mislead you, he’s a tough guy who could conceivably develop into the featured guy in Atlanta if Turner has a big injury or age catches up to him (RB Reserve+).
RB Alex Green (GB, #96) — I was tempted to put Green higher on the list b/c of Ryan Grant’s health being unknown and the quality of Green Bay’s offense, but there’s too much competition for touches to ensure he’ll be fantasy relevant this year (RB reserve+).
WR Julio Jones (ATL, #6) — Jones is a difference maker at WR, he’s a great run blocker with explosive run after the catch speed and ability. He’s more athletic than AJ Green but not as great a catcher of the football, however their abilities are both elite so its picking hairs between the two and both should be fantasy contributors by ’12. However Green is ready to be featured and will be right off the gate, so he could be a difference maker for fantasy leaguers in ’11 (WR3+).

Top 2011 Fantasy Football Rookie

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