Top 2012 Fantasy Football Rookies

Like the NFL draft, this is my mock draft (though I reserve the right to make changes if any trades or major injuries occur involving picks…

Top 2012 Fantasy Football Rookies

Like the NFL draft, this is my mock draft (though I reserve the right to make changes if any trades or major injuries occur involving picks and players the next ten days) on the likely selection order for the 2012 fantasy football rookie draft.

For context on the below mock draft, the PAFFL is a 25+ year old league that has instituted a rookie draft where each team receives a pick commensurate with their previous year’s performance (there is a lottery / playoff tourney to prevent teams from tanking but also keeping it interesting to the end). These selections are tradeable assets, and they’ve become an important part of the league’s currency. The PAFFL makes QB’s an extremely valuable commodity (just like the NFL) b/c there are 16 teams and the strongest lineup is 2 QB’s (1 is required, another can be in a flex), with RB’s being the next and very rarely WR’s. At the end of the day its the rarest commodities (franchise QB’s and true featured RB’s) that everybody is seeking in rookies. The chance you’ll hit on one is rare but everybody takes a swing b/c existing players are already who they are (or that’s the perception).

Without further ado, here are the projections.

RB Trent Richardson ($55, Strongfighters) — this pick will be made by the Beavercats and dealt to Strongs in pre-arranged deal. TRich is a cut above the rest of this RB class and if he stays injury free has hall of fame type ability. He’s landing on an offensively challenged team but they have a solid offensive line and he’s good enough to elevate them (ala LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego circa ’01) productive, if not dominant, fantasy seasons. I expect him to be in this type of class and therefore packs the most immediate AND long-term value. He’s a very safe pick.
QB Andrew Luck ($55, Beavercats) — Luck has been hyped for the past two years as a once in a generation type QB prospect. He’s not as flashy as others but he’s mobile (rushed for nearly 900 yards his freshman & sophomore years combined), accurate, a leader, ran a pro style offense leading Stanford University to back to back BCS games (and their best two seasons in school history). His near term production is QB2 at best but he’s as close to a lock as a franchise QB to enter in the NFL in a decade.
QB Robert Griffin III ($55, Strongfighters) — RG3 is special, reminds me of a less sudden but much more developed Michael Vick entering the NFL eleven years ago. He walks into a solid situation and strong staff committed to building around him. He’s potentially a low end QB1 this year if he picks up the system quickly and runs as much as some think he will.
RB Doug Martin ($55, LFP) — Martin is not as well hyped as the other three above him but he’s quietly been a great, versatile offensive weapon on one of college footballs best teams (Boise State). He’s a bellcow type of runner who walks into a perfect situation (strong offensive line, coaching staff that wants to focus on ball control/running attack, and a one dimensional competitor between Martin and 300+ touches). He’s as safe a lock to be a fantasy RB2 as could be expected in today’s NFL with upside to be a QB1 producer in ‘12.
RB David Wilson ($55, Pomona) — Wilson tore up the ACC in ’11 at Virginia Tech, he’s a natural athlete who shows explosion in open spaces, great short area quickness, solid size and production, but he jumped from a 2nd round pick to 1st (NFL selection that is) by demonstrating soft hands and a more well rounded game at the combine in February. Plus he joins the defending super bowl champs as the change of pace / goaline back to starter Ahmad Bradshaw, with the talent/potential to be a starter in the near future for one of the better offenses in the NFL. RB3 production in ’12 but potential to grow into much bigger role by end of ’12 and beyond.
QB Brandon Weeden ($55, Short Bus) — This is where the picks will start to get interesting. Weeden is far from the 6th best fantasy rookie talent but he’s walking into a starting NFL gig, he has a solid offensive line and some young weapons to work with (TRich, GLittle, JGordon). Given the committment the front office & coaching staff are giving to Weeden, he has a 2 year leash so this is a safe selection, he’ll give you starts this year and retain at least mediocre value into ’13. But he’s at best a QB2 entering this year with some downside.
QB Ryan Tannehill ($45, Jack Trippers) — Tannehill has a huge upside but he’s looking at clipboard duty for at least ’12 and potentially part of ’13. The length of his understudy work will depend on how well David Garrard and the Miami coaching staff get this team to be competitive, they want him to sit/learn for as long as possible before turning over the reins. Don’t forget that he was a wide receiver in college and only has 17 total college starts. So he’s only valuable in dynasty league formats that allow long-term contracts/holdovers like the PAFFL.
RB LaMichael James ($55, Isotopes) — LJames should go about three or four picks later and for about a third of the price given where he landed (49’ers have 3 guys arguably already ahead of him). But the PAFFL has too many Oregon alums and 49’er faithful, so its a certainty that James is selected with one of the three picks following this one if the ‘topes pass, which isn’t going to happen. Also note that I predict ‘Topes will hold him over at $55 to avoid last year’s Blaine Gabbert situation where he ended up at $65 b/c he topped. James is a dynamic playmaker who will begin his 49’er career as their kick returner and gadget package player (to create mismatches) but he has the ability to develop into a top 5 fantasy back down the road (likely end of ’13 or ’14) as Gore’s career winds down.
QB Russell Wilson ($30, Jack Trippers) — The Lewin Career Forecast “Asterisk”, even Wilson was likely surprised to hear the Seattle Seahawks we’re giving him a vote of confidence to compete for the starting job this year. I’ve watched enough film to say that if Wilson was just two inches taller (6’1”) he’d have been a top 10 NFL pick, as it is he’s in a great situation to get his starting shot by the middle of ’13 if not this season. When he does see the field he’ll be a strong QB2 with QB1 potential due to his accuracy & mobility. This is one of those sleepers that should be on the radar of every fantasy leaguer and is a must for any deep leagues (and dynasty formats).
RB Isaiah Pead ($30, Jack Trippers) — RB’s selected in the 2nd round in recent history have had more success than 1st rounders (Ray Rice, LMcCoy, MJD, DMurray, MForte among others). One thought is NFL teams expect 2nd round selections to immediately produce and develop into starters but w/o the same media & team expectations of first rounders. Pair that with the Rams futile efforts the past few years utilizing late round selections and free agency in search of a change of pace / heir apparent to Steven Jackson. The star of the Senior Bowl (with Barry Sanders like quickness/moves), his new HC Jeff Fisher called him “Chris Johnson like” at OTA practices, he’s looking like a sneaky value. Pead is similar in stature with the new breed of spread backs who slash defenses on quick hitting carries or from the screen game. He reminds me of LeSean McCoy, and is a lock for 100 touches in ’12 with the potential to expand that significantly in ’13 (or if/when Jackson finally breaks down). RB4+ immediately with RB2 production when he gets the starting nod.
RB Lamar Miller ($25, Beavercats) — Miller has game breaking speed but surprisingly fell to the 4th round in the draft. Injury concerns (knee and shoulder) have limited him the past two years likely scaring teams away concerned that he’ll never be anything but a change of pace / role player. But Miller has big-time talent, some compare him to Clinton Portis (though one pundit says he’s actually a “smoother” runner), so if he can stay healthy and get the right opportunity, he has RB1 talent. However Miami sports a deep backfield (Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas & Steve Slaton) so a selection of Miller is one for the future. If it weren’t the Beavercats way to pick the most talented player (vs. need), Miller would fall several more spots but his upside (fantasy reserve in ’12 but RB2+ potential in ’13 & beyond) gets him selected here.
RB Ronnie Hillman ($30, Fuego) — Hillman is a natural change of pace type runner in terms of his body type and style. He looks great on film (albeit vs. tier 2 competition), has good quickness and an explosive ability in congested areas. Plus he enters a seemingly great situation in Denver with little competition long-term. However Denver is in a transition in terms of offensive types, Peyton Manning will require veteran blockers at RB (Hillman’s weakness is blitz pick up) and historically his teams haven’t always run the ball well (yes early in his career with Edgerrin James they did but that ended in ‘04). Fuego likely will prefer Russell Wilson (or one of the QB’s) to fall to him but a quality RB who will immediately be in the mix for touches is a nice fall back position. RB4+ to start with potential to grow into RB2 producer if he improves blitz pickup and injuries hit veterans in front of him (W.McGahee & K.Moreno). Also don’t be surprised to see Fuego look to jump up to #7 to nab a QB.
RB Robert Turbin ($25, Trippers) — Turbin is one of the more underrated (and hyped deep sleepers from fantasy pros) in this draft class but that secret is out now with the expectation that Marshawn Lynch will be suspended (multi-DUI infraction). This makes Turbin valuable now, which is great b/c the guy is huge, runs angry, lit up the combine and advanced metrics say he’ll be very productive NFL player. He has RB4 potential with Lynch active but would be a RB3+ if he starts (when Lynch is out). I have the Trippers taking him in the “best player available model”, which would make them the big winners in this draft, in most years having 4 picks starting at 7 is a kiss of death, but under this scenario they pick up 2 future starting QB’s and two upside RB’s with immediate value, and do it all for approx. $140 in cap charges.
TE Coby Fleener ($20, IMT) — Fleener is a polarizing player, some hate him b/c he’s a WR listed as a TE (who can’t block) while others love his seam stretching ability and highlight reel catches. What is fact is he’s a 6”6’ player who ran a sub 4.5 forty time at his pro day and goes to a pro team desperate for reliable targets, playing with his college QB. I’m not sure how much better a situation he could have ended up in and even those that aren’t fans admit he’s a lock to have fantasy value. I think he’ll be a low end TE1 this year with potential to be a top 5 fantasy TE producer immediately. Maybe he’s never a complete TE but hey don’t forget this is fantasy football, not real football folks.
WR Justin Blackmon ($20, Jibbers) — In the past a top ten NFL receiver selected was generally worthless in fantasy b/c it took a year for them to acclimate to the pro game. However with the proliferation of spread pro passing offenses at the collegiate level, receivers are entering the NFL far more sophisticated at running routes and reading defenses, which has led to productive rookie receivers. Blackmon is no different, a beast at the college level, he plays big, has pro bowl quickness and strength; he consistently was a man among boys in the Big 12. He’s the first receiver to remind me of Terrell Owens and if he landed with even an average passing offense, I’d confidently say he’s primed for a WR2 ascension in year one. Instead he’s stuck with Blaine Gabbert who looked overmatched as a rookie. Blackmon, barring injury, will see at least 120 targets, assuming a 50% catch rate, he’s looking at 60 catches. Given his YAC ability, he could easily end up with 15 yards per catch, leaving him at around 800 yards and say 5 TD’s, making him a low end WR2 / WR3 but with WR1 potential. Thus he’s a good fit for the Jibbers who will generally take the highest quality player and can utilize Blackmon immediately as a starter.
QB Brock Osweiler ($12, IMT) — Looking for a QB to develop (along with the Denver Broncos), the tall, strong armed QB is in a great situation to learn for the next two to three years, and then ascend to the starting position once the legend (Manning) retires, inheriting a perennial playoff team deep in offensive talent. A second round pick in a great learning position, this is a nice place to sit/learn, it’ll just take patience. Again this is a selection that won’t happen in 99% of other fantasy leagues.

Other names to remember (on the cusp)

RB Bernard Pierce ($18) — Pierce, a 3rd round pick of Baltimore’s, walks into the primary back up role on a team that has historically run the football a LOT. The challenge is he’s behind one of the NFL’s best all around backs, Ray Rice, in the prime of his career. Pierce has talent and will get immediate touches (4 to 5 a week), however his upside (starter potential) is stunted unless Rice sustains a major injury, and that’s never easy to predict or pleasant to root for. At this point in the rookie draft, its a coup to land a 3rd round selection at RB heading to a team with an expected path to guaranteed weekly touches. Fantasy RB4 with upside if Rice gets injured.
RB Vick Ballard ($12) — a 5th rounder, Ballard was an ultra productive SEC back who has good size and hands but lacks quickness and speed, limiting his upside. Given that Indy is rebuilding (with limited competition ahead of him) with an entirely new front office & coaching staff, Ballard has as much potential as any to get the majority of touches and deliver a productive season.
WR Michael Floyd ($16) — Floyd is a beast from Notre Dame, he’s not a burner, reminds me of a young Michael Irvin, and he’s a great fit across from Larry Fitzgerald as he can create mismatches. If Arizona had more stability at QB, Floyd would be a more valuable in ‘12.
WR Kendal Wright ($12) — Wright is compared to receivers like Steve Smith (Carolina) for being aggressive, explosive smaller wide outs who can make plays. Tennessee isn’t a prolific offense so there’s a lot of competition for targets (NWashington, KBritt, JCook, CJohnson) so it’s not likely he’ll be more than a strong dynasty pick but clearly he’s in the mix long-term to be a WR2.
WR Brian Quick ($16) — Quick goes to a team desperate for a go-to receiver and they’re already calling him TO 2.0. Given the regression from Sam Bradford, the small school pedigree and the team’s focus on running the ball in ’12, it’s a long shot Quick is immediately productive but he’s somebody to keep an eye on during training camp.

Top 2012 Fantasy Football Rookies

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