Top 2013 Fantasy Football Rookies

Below are my projected top 20 fantasy football rookies for 2013. This year’s NFL draft class is like any other year, it has it’s areas of…

Top 2013 Fantasy Football Rookies

Below are my projected top 20 fantasy football rookies for 2013. This year’s NFL draft class is like any other year, it has it’s areas of strengths and weaknesses, but the media likes to focus on the glamour position of QB and in particular that group that goes in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft. This year’s class is not as strong at the top of the draft, particularly at QB and RB, however like all years there will be impact NFL players in this draft and hence, fantasy studs as well. So while the hype is negative, the reality is their is plenty of talent available.

RB Le’Veon Bell ($55) — Pittsburgh Steelers — Bell is a bellcow type guy, he’s got good hands, is pro pass protection ready and can grind out the tough yards. Throw in a great landing spot in Pittsburgh with a solid passing offense and a traditional of grinding it out, and you have the makings of a low risk, high quality fantasy starting RB off the bat. Now would Bell be the top rookie in most drafts, NO, that’s the downside of this group, but he’s the best player in the right situation in a year w/o any guaranteed starting QB’s or game changing RB’s to compete with.
RB Eddie Lacy ($55) — Green Bay Packers — Lacy has a bit more upside in terms of taken than Bell but he’s not as well rounded (poor receiver) and lands in a less clear situation with the Packers who haven’t been known to run it consistently since maybe the days of Ahman Green nearly a decade ago. Throw in some competition from 4th rounder Jonathan Franklin and you have more downside that with Bell, he’s assured of the starting spot.
QB EJ Manual ($55) — Buffalo Bills — The Bills pulled the trigger on the uber athletic and talented Florida State product but even they admitted they hope the veteran Kevin Kolb grabs the job in ’13 so Manual can learn. That coupled with a less than stellar college career and the Bills decade plus of futility at the position hurt his case to be taken earlier. I like him the best of the rookie QB’s long-term but I’m not in love with the team situation he got drafted into.
RB Giovanni Bernard ($55) — Cincinnati Bengals — Bernard was the first RB selected in this year’s draft at the top of the 2nd round. He’s not as well known as some of the other guys but he’s a game breaker in the CJ Spiller type mold and he goes to an open opportunity with an emerging dynamic offense in Cincinnati. In fact I would consider him at #2 but I didn’t put him there b/c he’s not a thumper, so he’ll need to rack up heavy yards in the short passing game and through explosive plays to reach the fantasy point totals the guys at the top are inline to get in their respective situations. That said I like Bernard as a difference maker who could develop into a Warrick Dunn type at the NFL level.
RB Montee Bell ($40) — Denver Broncos — The former Wisconsin Badger was selected late in the second round by the Broncos, he enters a crowded situation that needs more clarification before his fantasy value is established. If Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno are retained, Bell’s only insurance against injury and a future potential starter. If one or both of those guys are gone, then he climbs to potentially #2 or #3 on this list. What limits his value is the presence of talented but change of pace type runner Ronnie Hillman and head coach John Fox’s long-time preference to use veterans at running back over more talented young guys (this goes back more than a decade to Stephen Davis-DeShaun Foster, continuing with DeAngelo Williams, then Jonathan Stewart and so on). I also am not in love with Bell’s ability to make tacklers miss and pick up big chunk of yards, thus he’ll likely be limited to a between the tackles type of chain mover.
QB Geno Smith ($40) — New York Jets — Easily the most hyped draft prospect leading up the actual event, Smith dropped on questions about his maturity (doesn’t take responsibility, possibly not a hard worker among other things) and his ability in big games (stunk it up nearly every time it mattered). Keep in mind his gaudy numbers were part of the offense they ran and two of the best receivers in this year’s draft (Tavon Austin & Stedman Bailey). That all said Smith has the size, arm strength and athletic ability to be a starter in this league and enters arguably the most open job in the league. He’ll face competition from a now underrated Mark Sanchez who will outwork and push him but in the end the Jets are rebuilding and will eventually turn the job over to Smith. The question is whether he’s the long-term answer and nobody will know that until he gets his opportunity.
RB Marcus Lattimore ($30) — San Francisco 49’ers — Not since Willis McGahee has a player that more than likely will redshirt his rookie season due to a college injury been listed this high in the rookie rankings. But Lattimore simply has that much talent and he lands in arguably the perfect situation. The 49’ers have one of, if not the best, run offense in the NFL and their bellcow back, Frank Gore, will be entering his year 31 season in ’14 (and the last of his contract). So in non-dynasty leagues Lattimore isn’t draftable, but in all others he could be the most valuable and talented fantasy contributor come ‘15.
QB Matt Barkley ($25) — Philadelphia Eagles — The most polarizing player in this year’s rookie class, Barkley went from the most overrated to underrated in the course of the scouting process. Don’t forget that Barkley, a #1 overall high school recruit, started at USC all four years, showing development all four years while dealing with a deteriorating program (and coaching staff) around him in the process. He’s not a read-option type or rocket arm guy but in a timing, west coast type of system that requires toughness, Barkley will surprise. The fact Chip Kelly green lighted the Eagles to trade up to acquire the 1st pick of day three to select him speaks volumes about what he ultimately feels Dennis Dixon & Nick Foles (two players he knows up close from his time coaching them in the Pac 12) are capable of if/when Michael Vick gets hurt and eventually moves on. So if you’re a Barkley believer, you’ll argue this is too low for a guy who will get a starting chance in an upbeat, talented offense. However at least half of you will say he’s nothing more than a backup and rant about this being too high. I think he’s worth the gamble but there’s clearly risk.
QB Tyler Wilson ($20) — Oakland Raiders — This draft is flush with quarterbacks who stayed in school one year too long, and Wilson maybe the poster child (or would be if it weren’t for Barkley). Wilson has the size, accuracy, risk taking and experience in big time football (SEC) that normally come with high draft pick quarterbacks, but yet after a senior season marred by a complete team collapse, his draft stock plummeted. Landing in Oakland where his competition for the starting spot are Matt Flynn & Terelle Pryor, anything is possible. Also note that this regime traded for Flynn but did not draft nor have they shown much confidence in Pryor, so Wilson has a legitimate shot on this rebuilding squad to get his chance.
RB Christine Michael ($15) — Seattle Seahawks — Here is an example of how much the NFL has changed, the Seahawks have what appears to be a solid duo in Marshawn Lynch & Robert Turbin at RB but yet they spent their 2nd round selection on Michael. To put that into perspective, they have more invested in Michael than they do either Lynch (dealt a 4th rounder for him) or Turbin (’12 4th round pick), and historically teams don’t use 2nd round picks on players they don’t plan to incorporate heavily into their game plans. So the logical conclusion is they see Michael as a difference maker who can be groomed to take over for Lynch down the road and provide change of pace leverage now. This probably hurts all three guys fantasy values, though likely Turbin the most. At any rate Michael is an interesting player to watch for news over the coming months to get clues as to his role.
RB Stepfan Taylor ($15) — Arizona Cardinals — A decade ago a fifth round pick wouldn’t make the top 15, or really the top 20 for that matter but with NFL teams devaluing the position, there’s less of a mental block by those same NFL franchises to play a later round selection. Couple that with Taylor’s workmanlike mentality and college production to a team looking for a consistent running game, and you have the makings of a sleeper. Taylor has former 2nd rounder Ryan Williams and perennial injured former 1st round Rashard Mendenhall to compete with, and six rounder Andre Ellington, but he’s their bellcow type that wouldn’t be surprising if he leads the team in rushing. He has that potential and is the only one who has delivered at a major level.
TE Tyler Eifert ($15) — Cincinnati Bengals — Eifert is this year’s tight end mismatch, a guy who has wide receiver route running & hands with a defensive end’s frame (6’6” / 260 lbs). The Bengals need a possession receiver, mismatch type of complement to AJ Green and they picked up the best one in this draft. I’m skeptical of Cincy’s ability to grow its offensive pie enough to keep all their threats happy but Eifert is special and could easily develop into a 10 TD / 800 yard weapon from the TE position, landing as a perennial top 5 fantasy player at the position. In today’s game that differential (vs. bottom of the top 10) makes him worth as much or more than guys ahead of him on this list.
WR Tavon Austin ($20) — St. Louis Rams — The mismatch diminutive slot receiver, game breaker weapon has become the hot commodity in the NFL, Austin being a prime example of this trend. The combine stud in the 40, short shuttle among others, coupled with incredible production as a receiver, runner and returner skyrocketed Austin’s value into the top 10 of the draft. Entering a team desperate for playmakers, Austin should be targeted more than 100 times in the passing game and touch it another 50 times as a runner, making him a low risk WR3 out of the game with upside to being a DeSean Jackson type of WR1 down the road.
RB Jonathan Franklin ($15) — Green Bay Packers — Many predicted Franklin would go in the 2nd or 3rd round, and most pundits thought he was arguably the most pro ready, versatile, three down prospect at the position. Obviously the Packers thought so and wanted to overhaul their backfield by taking him only two rounds after they selected Lacy. I have concerns about the Packers willingness to run the football (and why would you with Aaron Rodgers and arguably the NFL’s best WR core) and while Franklin is in the mix for touches, this team hasn’t had a truly fantasy relevant player at RB since Ryan Grant three years ago, and I doubt that will change in ‘13.
RB Zac Stacy ($15) — St. Louis Rams — The Rams running back position is manned by two second years players (’12 2nd rounder Isaiah Pead & ’12 7th rounder Daryl Richardson) and this year’s 5th rounder Zac Stacy. Throw in run offense oriented head coach Jeff Fisher and Stacy will be on many rookie sleeper lists and mentioned as this year’s Alfred Morris. While there aren’t Morris’ type rookie breakouts every year, its also not a fair comparison for Stacy. However he provides great value this far down rookie drafts and could surprise.
WR Cordarrelle Patterson ($15) — Minnesota Vikings — The Vikings offense has key foundation pieces in Adrian Peterson & Kyle Rudolph but it lacks any reliable or consistency at the WR position, which makes Patterson an interesting potential fantasy producer immediately. It wouldn’t be a shock for him to be the featured guy this year and get 100+ targets, assume he only catches 50% of those for an above average yards per catch (say 15), you’ve got 50 catches for 750 yards. There’s upside on that too given Patterson’s big play potential.
RB Knile Davis ($15) — Kansas City Chiefs — Davis would have been a second round pick if not for the implosion at Arkansas and multiple major college injuries. Knile ripped up the measurables at the combine and demonstrated ability on the field in the SEC, plus he’s the perfect complement to Jamal Charles in KC and will compete to be the change of pace / short yardage back immediately. Throw in major upside as a featured guy down the road and Davis will be sought after.
TE Zack Ertz ($15) — Philadelphia Eagles — Chip Kelly likes to use tight ends to open up the middle of the field and pull safeties/coverage linebackers away from the edges. His offense hasn’t historically driven huge TE offensive numbers but maybe its because he’s never had a player of Ertz ability.
QB Mike Glennon ($15) — Tamba Bay Buccanneers — the Bucs new coach has been sending signals that Josh Freeman needs to mature and how strong development, and at the same time praising the qualities of his rookie Glennon. Throw in the fact that Freeman is from the old regime (GM & HC) and Schiano is looking to build the organization in his mindset demonstrates that there’s more to this, if the Bucs don’t get off to a good start in ’13, Glennon could get his shot sooner rather than later in Tamba Bay.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($10) — Houston Texans — Gary Kubiak needs an heir apparent and strong counterpart to Andre Johnson, and he’s been praising Hopkins so far in mini-camps as just the talent up to the challenge. Hopkins is strong hands, possession receiver type with sneaky big play ability. Like Austin above, he played for a pro quality starting QB (Taji Boyd) so there’s a question as to whether his production/talent are more a perception of playing with a great QB or vice versa, but I like the comps to Reggie Wayne and the lack of established options competing with him for the starting spot in ‘13.

Originally published at www.paffl.com.

Top 2013 Fantasy Football Rookies

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