Top 22 Super Flex Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

The annual rite of reading fantasy football rankings, in search of that important rookie insight into how a new player will fit with their…

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Top 22 Super Flex Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

Trevor Lawrence Is Best QB Prospect Since Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, John Elway…

The annual rite of reading fantasy football rankings, in search of that important rookie insight into how a new player will fit with their team, teammates, and their potential for the upcoming season is insatiable. At least it is for me. You’ll find dozens, if not hundreds, of credible takes on this but few tackle this for super flex league formats. Super flex is the fastest growing league approach, which are leagues that allow up to 2 starting QB’s (hence Super Flex spot). These league formats are great because it makes the most important position in any sport, valuable in the faux football too. Super flex leagues are my preferred fantasy league format, and thus this rookie analysis is focused on understanding the value of rookies in that context.

You can read more in-depth about all skill position rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft here. Without further ado, here are the top 22 fantasy football rookies for a super flex league.

#1 QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX; #1 Overall Pick) — The best QB prospect since Andrew Luck landed in a good offensive situation in Jacksonville. I am not sold on him being a savior or sure-fire future Hall of Famer but he’s locked & loaded into being a likely top 12, low end QB1 right out of the gate.

Prediction: QB2 — rosterable in all leagues, a starter in all super flex formats with upside in the right matchups. High-end QB1 dynasty value down the road with a strong possibility of him being a Q1 this year.

#2 RB Najee Harris (PIT; #24 Overall Pick) — If it’s possible to be an underrated Alabama running back, Najee Harris, not to be confused with (and unrelated to) Damian, could be it. Statistically, he compiled 4,600 yards and scored 57 touchdowns from scrimmage, showing a power game and finesse third-down skill set that foreshadows an every-down skill set at the NFL level.

Prediction: RB1 with some downside. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is maligned but there will be improvement and the weapons are in place for Harris to be a fantasy rookie of the year candidate and even a league winner type of pick.

#3 RB Travis Etienne (JAX; #25 Overall Pick) — The Clemson product was a college hall of fame level performer compiling 6,100+ yards and 78 TD’s from scrimmage. Like Harris, he was a 4-year contributor which explains some of the Gotti numbers but it takes talent to run for nearly 5k yards and receive for 1k+ more. Etienne is a multi-purpose playmaker, built in the LaDanian Tomlinson mold, he can grind out tough yards, break big plays and contribute in all phases of the game.

Prediction: RB2 with upside if Trevor Lawrence and the Urban Meyer offense click early on, and he gets a handful of targets a week from the slot. Dynasty wise he’s the highest-rated RB in this class.

#4 WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN; #5 Overall Pick) — Chase teams up with his college QB in an offense looking for a difference-maker. This is a crowded situation though with Boyd, Tee Higgins, and a QB returning from a major knee injury. Throw in concerns with protection and there are legitimate question marks. That said Chase walks into 100+ target situations and comfort/history with his quarterback that should translate into a very high floor.

Prediction: WR3 floor w/ WR2 likely production and a range of outcomes that includes a top 10, WR1 production.

#5 QB Justin Fields (CHI; #11 Overall Pick) — The Chicago Bears have been searching for a franchise leader, a long-term answer at the quarterback position for decades. Fields may never live up to the promise, he may not become the star the city deserves but he certainly has a ton of fantasy potential. In most drafts, Fields would have been a certain top 2 pick after being a top recruit and an absolute stellar college performer at the highest level. But due to circumstances I don’t understand, he dropped to 11 and has all the talent in the world to be the next Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes type to make most, if not all, the teams that pass on him bummed for the next decade.

Prediction: QB2 with QB1 production in ’21 due to wheels. Q1+ dynasty value.

#6 QB Trey Lance (SF; #3 Overall Pick) — For 2021 fantasy purposes there is every reason to believe he won’t play much but for dynasty, this is a great situational talent. Some speculate that Lance will ascend to a prominent role this year but reading the tea leaves, the 49’ers want Jimmy Garrapolo to repeat his 2019. This gives Lance valuable assimilation time, rebuilds Jimmy G’s value and they transition in 2022.

Prediction: N/A — Not roster able in redraft (annual) leagues unless you’re betting on a Jimmy G injury. QB1+ dynasty value.

#7 WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA; #6 Pick) — Waddle compares favorably to Tyreek Hill; with explosive YAC and playmaking ability at all levels of the field, running and receiving. While I see some of that on film, Miami’s offense isn’t KC. The draft capital and skillset says Waddle will be the featured guy. The situation though maybe a max of 100 targets and a couple of dozen touches in the run game.

Prediction: WR3 with some upside if Tua emerges in his second year.

#8 WR DeVonte Smith (NYG; #10 Overall Pick) — This is where the landing spot opportunity best meets talent for the receiver class. Smith is in the same talent class as Chase or Waddle, he lands in Philly which has 120+ targets and the featured receiver spot wide open. Coupled with Smith’s experience playing with Hurts (@ Alabama in ’17 & ‘18), elite route running & hands, he’s a sure bet to be fantasy relevant right out of the gates.

Prediction: WR3 with spurts of WR2 production & WR1 upside if Hurts and the Philly offense clicks.

#9 RB Trey Sermon (SF; #88 Overall Pick) — Similar to Lance, landing with Kyle Shannahan and the 49’ers means there is league-winning potential with Sermon. The question is who is Sermon? The guy that looked pedestrian at Oklahoma or the world-beater over the 2nd half of the pandemic shortened season at Ohio State. If Sermon had been drafted earlier and/or shown more dominant play in college, he’d be higher on this list. He’s the biggest boom or bust rookie in the top 15 of this list.

Prediction: RB3 with RB1 upside.

#10 QB Mac Jones (NE; #15 Overall Pick) — Jones falls into the age-old debate of whether it was his talent that elevated the best college football program in decades to another national title or the 9 offensive players that were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft the past two years. My rationale is Jones had the same or possibly less skill-position talent around him than Joe Burrow had (Justin Jefferson, CEH, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall) but was even better (more efficient). He showed elite pocket awareness and accuracy, and by all accounts is an incredible leader.

Prediction: Low-end QB2 if he starts but does not forget he joins an abysmal surrounding cast in New England. QB1 dynasty upside as he takes the full starting role in ’22 and beyond.

#11 QB Zach Wilson (NJY; #2 Overall Pick) — He’s talented but the Jets lack offensive weapons, this franchise is a year or two away (forever), and Wilson could easily suffer the same fate as Sam Darnold. For fantasy purposes, Wilson is stuck as a bottom of the barrel of the first-round QB selections in my opinion but has the talent to breakout.

Prediction: QB3 roster able only in deep leagues and super flex; has potential to develop into a franchise savior and QB1 but the probability is low.

#12 TE Kyle Pitts (ATL; #4 Overall Pick) — Rookie tight ends rarely are fantasy relevant. You have to go back to a rookie Mike Ditka in 1961 to find the ONLY rookie TE in history to exceed 894 yards (his rookie record is 1,076 yards). The pundits will say Pitts is the exception, that he’s less tight end, more hybrid offensive weapon. I have my doubts Pitts will buck the trend, he’s special but he will take at least a year to be a TE1.

Prediction: TE2 with upside but a strong dynasty pick as projected TE1+ in ’22 & beyond.

#13 RB Javonte Williams (DEN; #35 Overall Pick) — This was a surprise selection as the Broncos didn’t have a glaring need at running back. We can assume they were that high on the underrated, 3 down back. A hard runner with good hands, a run-first offensive mentality. You don’t take a back this early if you’re not going to give them 200+ touches.

Prediction: RB3 floor with upside to RB2.

#14 RB Michael Carter (NYJ; #107 Overall Pick) — The advanced metrics don’t love Carter since he split time in college, never carrying a full load. However tape doesn’t lie, the guy was special in multiple phases of the position and offers immediate versatility (game-breaker, tough runner & pass-catching) to differentiate himself from the competition. Given the Jets offense is a work in progress, there is a ceiling but he could surprise in fantasy if he lands the receiving back role.

Prediction: RB4/Flex with upside to RB2 if he clicks as a receiving outlet for Wilson.

#15 WR Rashod Bateman (BAL; #27 Overall Pick) — The Ravens under John Harbaugh and specifically with Lamar Jackson at quarterback appear to be the NFL exception to the expansion of the passing game. The reality is Lamar Jackson is a run-first quarterback in a run-first offense however Bateman, a versatile, security blanket receiver, could suck up 120 targets and diversify the Ravens offense. They know they need this to advance in the playoffs so the motivation is there.

Prediction: WR Flex with upside to WR3 if he becomes the featured guy. At this point in a fantasy draft, he’s a safe flyer.

#16 WR Rondale Moore (ARI; #49 Overall Pick) — A similar player to fellow rookie receiver Elijah Moore, this selection is to handle the slot duties vacated by Larry Fitzgerald and elevate the outside guys DHop & Christian Kirk. The diminutive playmaking Moore will add a dynamic element to the Cardinal’s offense. The challenge is there simply aren’t enough targets to go around, which will keep Moore from having consistent fantasy value.

Prediction: WR4 w/ Flex (WR4) upside if Arizona offense takes the next step or injuries hit others ahead of him.

#17 WR Terrace Marshall (CAR; #59 Overall Pick) — A big receiver who has the potential to develop into a lead outside receiver. Marshall excelled playing 3rd fiddle to Justin Jefferson & Ja’Marr Chase in ’19. The question remains whether he can evolve into a difference-maker or whether he’ll also be a strong secondary option.

Prediction: WR4/flex; WR3 in dynasty formats if Darnold finds his high ceiling potential.

#18 WR Elijah Moore (NYJ; #34 Overall Pick) — An underrated, smaller slot-style receiver. Moore has drawn comparisons to Carolina’s great WR Steve Smith. If Moore can live up to that the Jets will be thrilled. Fellow ’19 2nd rounder Denzel Mims, Corey Davis & Jamison Crowder are all competing for targets in what will likely be a pass-heavy scheme.

Prediction: WR4 (Flex) with WR2 upside if offense clicks and Moore captures a significant target role.

#19 QB Kyle Trask (TB; #62 Overall Pick) — The Florida quarterback surprised by having a strong final year leading the Gators to a New Year’s day game. With Tom Brady locked in as the current starter Trask has a wonderful opportunity to sit and learn. He holds little to no fantasy value (barring an injury to Brady) this year however he’s in an ideal learning environment loaded with young, high-end offensive weapons.

Prediction: Rosterable in dynasty formats; QB2+ potential in ’22 (or whenever Brady hangs it up).

#20 WR Kedarius Toney (NYG; #20 Overall Pick) — The most polarizing skill position selection of the 1st round, Toney draws comparisons to Percy Harvin, Curtis Samuel, and a litany of other playmakers. The raw talent is clear on film and looking at the workout metrics, he has a chance to be a dynamic playmaker.

Prediction: WR Flex in ’21 with upside to WR3 or long-term bust.

#21 QB Davis Mills (HOU; #67 Overall Pick) — Mills was a top high school QB recruit who was underwhelmed until he got some starts during his 3rd & 4th years in college at Stanford. He has prototype size, NFL arm strength, and showed off NFL skills but his resume is shallow. In Houston though where they are in full rebuild mode, he could get an opportunity soon.

Prediction: Sleeper in dynasty formats; QB2+ potential in ’22 but likely not a viable league winning option until ’23 or later.

#22 TE Pat Friermuth (PIT; #55 Overall Pick) — The best in-line blocking TE pass-catcher combo in this draft. Friermuth is more of a run game benefit to start his NFL career than a fantasy threat but like the Kelce & Gronk types of recent vintage, he could evolve into a dual-threat over the next couple of years.

Prediction: TE2, roster able in most formats; low-end TE1 in dynasty formats long term.