Top 5 Bulls**t Fantasy Football Narratives + Week 1 Camp News

The Philadelphia Eagles can’t support strong fantasy RB seasons. In 2022, the Eagles had the #10 overall fantasy back, a low end RB1…

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Top 5 Bulls**t Fantasy Football Narratives + Week 1 Camp News

Top 5 Bulls**t Fantasy Narratives + Week 1 Training Camp Fantasy News
_Episode 80 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast is a overview of our top 5 bullsh**t fantasy narratives and the top…_share.transistor.fm

The Philadelphia Eagles can’t support strong fantasy RB seasons. In 2022, the Eagles had the #10 overall fantasy back, a low end RB1 season, in Miles Sanders. Then in 2023, the Eagles saw D’Andre Swift have his best fantasy season as #23 overall fantasy back playing with them. So not only have the Eagles supported solid fantasy production out of what maybe mediocre running back talent, they are primed to provide Saquon Barkley with his best opportunity to impersonate CMC. Barkley has had 3 top 10 fantasy RB seasons, with a #2 and #3 finish on his resume, in Philadelphia he’s surrounded by talent that could enable him to ascend to the top overall spot.

The Dallas Cowboys offensive line is so good they can make an old Zeke Elliott fantasy relevant. Dallas had the best oline early in Ezekiel Elliott’s career but the cap hits took their toll, and now their tackles are mediocre and the internal is getting up in age. Combine that with a Zeke that has lost a step or two. Zeke’s worst fantasy season was ’22 when he finished as the #17 fantasy running back producer, then he fell to #33 last season. Now only 29 years old, the odds are good that if he gets 250 touches he will finish better than last year, but not much better, because the offensive line is no longer money in the bank.

There are only 5 elite fantasy QB’s and you need one of them. The NFL has never had so many talented passers, likely a result of the 7on7 craze at the junior levels over the past twenty years, the open pass first college mentality, which has ushered in an era of pro ready quarterbacks and wide receivers. But you can make a QB1 argument for guys as far down as Kirk Cousins (#14), Justin Herbert (#15), and that excludes the rookies Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. The one area that’s critical though is running production. Cousins and Herbert have to put up Tom Brady 2007 type numbers to be the overall QB1 because they don’t run, but a 4.5k yard passing and 30+ TD’s are well within range and place them in the top 10. So don’t fret about a top 4 guy, you can find QB1 production as far down as #17.

Brock Purdy is a system QB and not worthy of being drafted in 10 team leagues. Ok I know Purdy is firmly outside the top 10 fantasy QB ranking, as mentioned in the above, so in a standard ten team redraft league he’s firmly a QB2 backup type. However this lazy argument that he’s a system QB is the same narrative that chased Tom Brady for the first 5+ years of his career as well (maybe none of you will admit it but this “system QB” was widely used to knock down his production. So why does this label not fit Purdy? Because we saw this team, play caller and talent under Jimmy Grappalo, a true “system quarterback” and they performed significantly worse. Purdy in 21 regular season starts is 17–4, he’s thrown 269 yards, 2.1 TD’s and less than 1 turnover per game during that time. He’s also gone 4–2 in 6 playoff starts. Is he the next GOAT, the odds are very slim, but is he a franchise guy, a better version of Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins (who both played under Kyle Shannahan), through 1.5 seasons he sure seems like he will far exceed their career highs.

Workhorse, Dominant Fantasy RB’s Don’t Exist Anymore. This maybe a bit extreme but as recently as 2022 the league was devoid of any stud, must select at the top of your fantasy draft running back talent but as we embark on the 2024 season, this narrative no longer is true. Christian McCaffrey is the top player in just about every fantasy format, and there is a ton to love about the next tier of young talent — such as Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and more. The difference between 1995 and 2024 is there is a commonly referred to “dead zone” that hits around fantasy RB 20 and lasts for about 20+ picks — this is an area where you can draft Zamir White (in the low 20’s) or Brian Robinson (in the early 30’s) or Rico Dowdle (early 40’s) and end up with approximately the same workload, productivity but tremendously different fantasy values. So the truth in 2024 is if you can get one of the top 10 to 15 fantasy RB’s, they’re worth early picks (or lots of auction $ allocation) but once you get past the proven, clearly the lead committee type of backs (e.g. James Cook, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Ettiene, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara), you’re better off waiting until after you’ve gotten your WR, TE and likely your starting QB before you finish up at the RB position.

General NFL News

Rookie QB’s not starting — top 2 are locked and loaded, and you can make a case for both being solid to great QB1’s this year. The rest likely will start as backups learning before they hit the field, in particular Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy appear likely to sit at least the first month of the season if not longer. Look for Minnesota to wait until Sam Darnold is costing them multiple games — this could end up being a 8 to 10 week period, and word from New England is they’re prepared to play Jacoby Brissett all season to give Maye a redshirt learning year before given the opportunity in 2025. Not ideal for fantasy but dynasty leaguers should take note. Bo Nix is the other…I can’t imagine him not taking the job if not to start the season relatively early but Sean Payton’s system is notoriously complex and they may want to be cautious.

Brandon Aiyuk — This news IMHO will hurt Aiyuk the most. The 49’ers offense is dynamic, and it runs through Deebo, CMC and Kittle. Jujan Jennings, Chris Conley and Ricky Pearsall will see some additional opportunity but the value will be more concentrated in the top receivers. Purdy takes a tiny hit but no movement. Aiyuk on the other hand could be facing a terrible fantasy situation — if he lands in Pittsburgh or New England, he drops to a WR3/Flex area, and his upside is significantly curtailed.

Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields — I don’t understand this “competition”. Wilson is nearing the end and has looked progressively washed the past 3 years. He could be a good placeholder for Tomlin to will the Steelers to a 10 or 11 win season but there is no upside. Fields is in his last year of his contract and is more of a boom / bust play. If the focus is on trying to win another super bowl, you have to start Fields using the same philosophy and approach they used to develop Ben Roethlisberger. Use a run heavy scheme, play action pass, easy throws and take a few calculated shots down the field to George Pickens. I’m also biased though because Fields is an infinitely more interesting fantasy contributor.