Week 10 NFL Fantasy Musings; Fantasy QB, RB, WR & TE Surprises & Disappointments

We’re rolling into week 11, in many leagues that’s trade deadline and full on moving day. If you’re not prepared to play with the big boys…

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Week 10 NFL Fantasy Musings; Fantasy QB, RB, WR & TE Surprises & Disappointments

NFL Week 10 Fantasy Musings; Fantasy QB, RB, WR & TE Surprise & Disappointments
_Episode 51 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast, hosted by Jay Dubb, covers the weekly discussion on fantasy…_share.transistor.fm

We’re rolling into week 11, in many leagues that’s trade deadline and full on moving day. If you’re not prepared to play with the big boys, then well, I don’t know what to say other than goodluck, you’re probably already done.

I personally am still in it, I never give up, I don’t quit, that’s not in my nature. However I am already daydreaming about thanksgiving and some time to reflect and enjoy family. When I started my love affair with fantasy football three decades ago, one of my fondest memories was the anticipation and enjoyment of watching games on turkey day. Barry Sanders cutting on a dime, Randy Moss wowing us with a multitude of touchdown bombs as a marvelous rookie, and so much more. There was a time pre red zone and sunday ticket where I would look up the national tv appearances of teams (Monday Night games, Thanksgiving, holiday/xmas Saturday matchups) to determine players to target so I could watch them play more frequently. I don’t long for those days though b/c we also had to hand score each game using Monday’s box scores in the USA Today (that was the official stats we agreed upon).

Enough though about Thanksgiving because we all have a vital week 11 between now and then.

What are the storylines this week?

Let’s start with CJ Stroud is “him” (as the young kids are saying). Seriously this dumpster fire of a “let’s force massage therapists to sign NDA’s because our franchise quarterback is a creep” of a franchise looked doa the past 3 years. They draft Stroud and they’re now a division leader and beating good teams on the road (Cincy). Not only that but Stroud is doing it the traditional way, hanging in the pocket and delivering rockets all around the field to a litany of mediocre, I didn’t know that guy is a legitimate NFL receiver types. It’s impressive. And he’s the #4 overall fantasy QB to boot.

Which brings me to the core of this week’s show. Who are the surprise & disappointments by fantasy position, and do I expect them to continue?

QB Surprises

Sam Howell — #5 fantasy scorer at QB. I do think he continues but like Ryan Fitzpatrick in the past, he’s more of a gunslinger who won’t sustain the role b/c he isn’t enough of a winning ingredient. So good for the remainder of ’23 but doubtful he’s the long term starter.

Joshua Dobbs — #7 fantasy scorer at QB. This one is hard but this is his first shot as a starter with good surrounding talent and system. So I like him to finish out this year strong…and I’m rooting for the story.

QB Disappointments

Patrick Mahomes — #10 fantasy scorer at QB. Mahomes is fine but he’s scored 40 less points than the top handful of guys, and maybe it’s him but it likely is the surrounding talent. I expect him to be better down the stretch but this may take an offseason to fix.

Trevor Lawrence — #18 fantasy scorer. Lawrence is on pace for less than 20 TD passes and low 3k total yards. That’s not what anybody expected from the golden boy #1 overall pick from 3 years ago. His surrounding talent is strong enough that I expect a major 2nd half. Buy Low now.

RB Surprises

Brian Robinson Jr. — The #4 scoring fantasy RB. I love this guy, I mistakenly dealt him in my home league prior to the start of the season. He’s on pace for 15 TD’s and 1300 total yards. Is it sustainable? Maybe not but I still love him.

Rachaad White — The #8 scoring fantasy RB. White was mentioned as a sleeper on the back of 3rd down duty, but he’s ascended to be the primary back — and is on pace for 1300+ total yards and 8 TD’s. He’s been steady and should continue to be productive.

RB Disappointments

Aaron Jones — The #33 scoring fantasy RB. Nobody predicted Jones to fall this far…I guess Aaron Rodgers presence is valuable. For what it’s worth he has looked good when he’s played and healthy but that isn’t a guarantee. I would pass on him for the rest of this year.

Saquon Barkley — The #25 scoring fantasy RB. I won’t put this entirely on him, the NY Giants are terrible. Barkley will have his moments because he’s 99.9% of their offense but he won’t be a consistent top 10 threat. For his sake I hope he lands in a more complete offense in 2024.

WR Surprises

Puka Nacua — The #11 overall fantasy scoring WR. He has to be on here, he was a stud the first 5 weeks, and he remains a productive fantasy starter. Will he continue to be down the stretch? Only if Mattew Stafford is healthy. But he’s shown he’s a talent for the years ahead.

Adam Thielen — The #13 overall fantasy scoring WR. As you can see from the list, there aren’t a ton of surprises, the majority of the top 13 are great players, high draft picks, general stars. Thielen though has stepped up to support his rookie QB. If he stays healthy he will be a target hound.

WR Disappointments

Jaylen Waddle — The #33 Fantasy Scoring WR. The Dolpins offense has been huge this year but Waddle hasn’t participated enough, and he’s burning fantasy owners who invested in what they thought was a borderline WR1, only to get a WR3.

DK Metcalf — The #37 fantasy scoring WR. Metcalf is too good to be this low. He’s on pace for 1k yards and 75 catches but only 4 TD’s. Will he pick it up in the 2nd half, maybe, it’s dependent on Geno Smith returning to his ’22 form.

TE Surprises

Sam LaPorta — #6 Scoring TE. He’s a rookie which is why he’s on this list, he’s lived up to the preseason hype. Will he continue this pace in the 2nd half, I would go against convention wisdom and data to say yes, as the Lions offense has to keep up with teams, LaPorta will remain a go to guy.

Cole Kmet — #7 Scoring TE. Kmet is huge, and he’s become a favorite of Tyson Bangent near the end zone. The challenge for Kmet is Justin Fields is back and he’s not really a reliable quarterback, he’s more of a great runner who also happens to be the QB. So don’t expect this production to continue.

TE Disappointments

Kyle Pitts — #18 Scoring TE. What did we expect in year 3. The head coach has completely forgotten they used the #4 overall pick on this guy or that he’s an insane mismatch who whenever he’s involved is a terror in the open field. Will that change in the 2nd half of ‘23? Not likely.

Michael Mayer — #31 Scoring TE. I only list him because he’s looked good but the Raiders haven’t thrown to him enough. I think that may change in the 2nd half under new coach and fellow rookie QB Aidan O’Connell.

K Surprise or Disappointment?

Let’s be honest, kickers are so random. The 4 and 5 guys were not even expected to be the primary kickers on their respective teams (Dallas and NO) prior to training camp, now they’re solid fantasy contributors.