Week 9 NFL Fantasy Musings; Bill Belicheck’s Coaching Tree is Mediocre

We’re heading into the 10th week of the season; we have a TON of byes this week — including both of last year’s Super Bowl participants —…

We’re heading into the 10th week of the season; we have a TON of byes this week — including both of last year’s Super Bowl participants —…

Week 9 NFL Fantasy Musings; Bill Belichick’s Coaching Tree is Mediocre

NFL Week 9 Fantasy Musings; Bill Belichek’s Unimpressive Tree & Starting Rookie QB Record
_Episode 49 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast hosted by JayDubb, covers the weekly discussion on fantasy stories…_share.transistor.fm

We’re heading into the 10th week of the season; we have a TON of byes this week — including both of last year’s Super Bowl participants — which means our favorite NFL player, Travis Kelce is spending quality time with his new beau. For Chiefs and Kelce fans, you can only hope she makes more appearances b/c his splits with her in attendance vs. not are stark.

As for general NFL and fantasy tidbits. The headline about this weekend, seeing the 10th rookie quarterback to start in an NFL game as all-time record got me thinking about how many When you look around, it’s been illuminating — CJ Stroud has been the best rookie QB in several seasons and looks like a bonafide franchise guy. Anthony Richardson has the raw talent but may be too aggressive to ever develop into a stable, 17-game starter type. Then you have Bryce Young, who may be too small to last, but he’s got talent. Then we jump to the lower round or undrafted types. Will Levis has looked poised through 2 games; Tyson Bangent is one of the best stories so far but appears to be more of a quality backup type. Aidan O’Connell is intriguing; he looked awesome in the preseason. Then you have the not ready, but we had to throw you in there types: Jaren Hall (Minn), Clayton Tune (Arizona), and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Cleveland). This is where Tommy Devito most likely fits, especially against a dynamic pass rush in Dallas for his first start. The NY Giants may be looking at a free fall down the stretch — and possibly another coaching change.

So why are all these rookie quarterbacks starting NFL games? Historically, teams had more continuity with veterans, but what we’re seeing is even veteran backups are falling apart. In Arizona, Minnesota, and NY Giants were teams that had lost their starter and the backup to injury. But the honest answer lies in the proliferation of complex, pass-friendly offensive systems at the high school and college levels that have slowly become the norm at the professional level. Thus, when a guy like Tommy Devito, Tyson Bangent, or Clayton Tune comes from a small school system, they’re not as far beyond in terms of understanding concepts, and they can step in to run more than just a rudimentary set of basic plays.

Furthermore, these younger quarterbacks have grown up playing pass-friendly spread systems from peewee, possibly in 7on7 formats as pre-teens, into high school and then college. So their experience and comfort in understanding route trees, progressions, and complex defensive formations on pass plays far exceeds what quarterbacks who came out of college even a decade ago. In short it’s a result of the fundamental system shift at the youngest levels. My son played in flag leagues in middle school, and they threw the ball 75% of the time. When I graduated high school in the 90’s, our team passed less than 25% of the time, and we had a good quarterback and good receivers (same high school and high school head coach that produced Davante Adams).

The Athletic published about the Bill Belichick coaching tree and its lack of success. There have been ten former assistants who get an NFL head job; combined they have a 41% win percentage, six playoff appearances, and 3 total playoff wins. In comparison, Bill Walsh’s tree produced 30+ playoff appearances and 3 Super Bowl wins, and the tree below that (Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden) was immensely successful. Ironically, one of the nuggets in the article was that Belichick read Bill Walsh’s coaching guide, which included details on how to hire staff, deal with the media, set culture, etc. The net explanations for why Belichick assistants struggle — 1) Belichick doesn’t have a transferable “system” that his coaches can take; 2) he’s a dictatorial type of leader, and thus doesn’t give his underlings enough responsibility to be successful once they leave, and maybe most relevant, 3) those assistants didn’t have Tom Brady. Regardless, it’s fascinating given how successful Belicheck has been — arguably the best NFL head coach of all time.

Ok, on to some fun before we get into the brass tax of the week.